Few will understand what is happening in Pakistan is most unusual. From its early floundering foundational days, Pakistan as a 'nationhood' has been captive to a larger concept of persona unlike no other. In her initial days itself, the country became captive to vested interests, an elite that initially claimed her inevitability as a nation, since Muslims could not otherwise be 'safe' in the subcontinent of India, and why a Land of the Pure, would actually guarantee it, who later flipped the narrative on its head, making Pakistan exist as an antithesis of all that India struggled to create as her commons after the bitter and bloody partition and designs of Western powers adverse to her rise as an independent nationhood.

If Zia Ul Haq as an Army Chief and one who judicially executed Zulfilkar Ali Bhutto using the window when Pakistan was emotionally drained in the after math of the birth of Bangladesh, which was a body blow to the theory of her creation as propounded by her founding fathers, to consolidate for Pakistan a new rationale for her existence- that she now became a client based piece of real estate, as her Army, Allah and America claimed her. It was not that General Zia was the first coup making Army Chief of Pakistan, there were others before him. In fact a more chequered and accurate way of Pakistan would be that she had spells of democratic elections between periods of martial law, but the shift that General Zia brought about was to offer a clear legitimacy to both Army & Allah and to fund this he brought in America in a way that was previously not thought about as possible.

Pakistan brokered the geopolitical scene in ways that made her trust worthy to both USA and China (PRC) and as a consequence there was clearly a period in the 'peaceful rise' of China and the waning post Gulf Wars USA, when she received largesse and attention from both countries. Then 9/11 happened and it was no longer possible for Pentagon and the US Deep State to turn a blind eye. The effort to dehyphenate the subcontinent started first with the Bush Jr Administration and was consolidated by Presidencies since.

What was speculated since the 30 August 2021 withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan was that the Biden Administration would reopen its doors to Pakistan's Rawalpindi GHQ and purchase some leverage with Pakistan who held the cards on the Taliban. What was also speculated was that the gains from dehyphenation, from closing the 'terror tap' in Pakistan would end, and there would be a heightened pressure on Kashmir and rest of India terror activity inspired and supported by Pakistan. We have seen actually a very different response, one that was not fathomed by experts shrieking in TV studios in India. Pakistan facilitated convoys overland between India and Afghanistan, shipping Wheat and Vaccines to the beleaguered landlocked northern state, which has historic ties to India, ties that in true people to people level, are bonds that have withstood the vicissitudes of Islamism, colonialism, Western Cold War Imperialism and Post Cold War War against Terrorism.

While Pakistan is using below radar approach to nudge the Taliban regime after being snubbed by them( PM Khan made a call in September 2021 for Talibs to have an inclusive government only to be told off by the regime), Iran is openly grudging the Taliban for not being more inclusive and actively seeking the regime to include Hazaras, Tajiks, and other tribes of Afghanistan. Between the two states heavily influenced by Islamic ideology of diametrically opposite clerical disposition, ( Shia versus Sunni Wahabism), a detente of sorts is emerging, where both are seeking a quiescent and not restive Afghanistan, even one where Taliban is the overlord, but one that would behave more responsibly as a 'Government'. In fact, PM Imran Khan's concerns raised at the recent Special OIS Conference are legitimate concerns and his government's own actions bat for those concerns, including the access India has received in shipments to Afghanistan.

It would appear that several factors are at play that are creating a climate of moderation within Pakistan. First is that it appears overt 'hate' rush has run its course, particularly after how Pakistan as a state and society responded to recent incident involving a foreigner over blasphemy. This in a country where until recently such a lynching would be seen as a sign of heroism, where the blasphemer if able to get justice by law was still forced to flee the land, is actually a 'new dawn'! Then there is the Karak case where a demolished temple was ordered to be rebuilt by its Supreme Court. What is even more of a tectonic shift is now, the serving Chief Justice of Pakistan inaugurated the rebuilt temple and how now pilgrims were guaranteed safety for worship by society.

While it would be premature to say that the leopard changed its spots right now, but a noticeable change in the political agenda of that country is here to stay. Analysts argue that social disruption caused by radicalism has reached its nadir, creating a urgency to get harmony going, to create a climate for various groups and sections to coalesce and converge toward the simple goals of economic existence and sustainability, once terrorism started receiving global adverse economic responses. The pressure of the Grey List of FATF is just one aspect, the larger aspect in Pakistan is how replacing America with China has not given that country's elite the leg room for their accustomed way of life, squeezing them in ways that they did not quite comprehend when they walked full stride toward China's OBOR/BRI initiatives. This has also led to loud local protests by mobs, tensions in settlements where Chinese are working on infrastructure projects along the BRI, which compound China's refusal to write off debt wholesale (while offering soft loans for immediate relief) has made a sobering effect upon Pakistan. So from multiple dynamic effects, the conclusion in Pakistan's situation is clear, it is basically driven by a realisation amongst her elites that she needs to get off the tiger of terror, radicalism and Islamic Conservatism that she has been riding for more than three decades now. In fact, China herself may have played a larger role, in funding Pakistani studies about economic opportunities as an integrated common market with her eastern neighbour India, her own concerns over Uighur and East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) and growing realisation of viability of OBOR/BRI projects in South Asia without coopting India. If China could swing Pakistan to do her the favour she did with the Nixon Administration in the 70s, who better than PM Imran Khan to broker a deal between PM Modi and President Xi Jinping?

Perhaps PM Imran is playing a cricket game in which his role as sheet anchor, patiently nudging and nursing the larger players of Army, Judiciary and other Deep State elements within Pakistan is not openly recognised by the global stakeholders as much as it deserves. India's former cricketer comedian and politician Mr Navjot Singh Sidhu is the only leader who has offered to stake himself politically espousing openly his confidence in Pakistan under Imran's leadership. Unlike what many hoped, the internal dynamics within the Congress party in India, with no clear support for Mr Rahul Gandhi who supports Mr Sidhu, do not offer a stature to Mr Sidhu that he could be taken more seriously by Indian Deep State. Yet, his observations need to be weighed against what is evident in Pakistan and it may be more pragmatic for India, especially since it will offer her a way out from the '2& 1/2 Front Confrontation' that currently engages her strategists.

Imran Khan's performance within his country, one beset with intrinsic fault lines that have developed like mine fields over decades of radicalism, is so far a mixed bag. His key ally appears to be the Chief General Bajwa as indicated by the extension given to him. General Bajwa's current term expires in November 22, and his own electoral fortune will get tested in 2023, with his promise of a "New Pakistan" belied in his own assessment before the pandemic runs its course. However the clearest indication that he is playing the innings of his life which may well be a captain's knock for Pakistan, is the new national security policy that places the 'citizen' at the heart of the Pakistan nation. ( Nehru would be smiling wherever he is now after he espoused 'who is Bharat Mata but her citizens') For those cynics and skeptics, let me say that General Iftikhar the Pak Army spokeperson's response to this NSP "Pakistan's armed forces will play their due part in achieving the vision laid out in the policy," is a paradigm shift. It is a new Dawn indeed for Imran's Pakistan, which hopes to put the genie back into the bottle!

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