26 September 2022
Historians are always aware of how important information is, to shaping of morale and managing logistics of war. When the British fought to crush the rebellion that had sparked over greased cartridges in India, 1857 was called many things at that time, including perhaps the last hurrah of India's royals with their small fiefdoms and legacy states, riding out in glory of battle, before India was formally annexed as a colony. At that time, the Indian Bazaar was recalled by British Generals as being as good a source of information as the then newly introduced Telegraph. So gossip back then is now social media. The ability to reach more eyes and ears is unimaginable in comparison, and the capability to build and sustain narratives is very superior.
From the moment the Americans decided that Russia and not China was their mainstay rivalry for this phase of the Climate of Strategic Uncertainty, the narrative build up against Mr Putin and Russia has been a feature of Western tabloids and media channels. Curiously within America, more Right Wing leaning politically Republican MAGAs adhere to Mr Trump's line which was that one could do 'business with Russia'. However for the vast liberal majority and the left of centre conservatives, Mr Putin is like the celebrated Rasputin sung by Boney M! And unlike that song, no one quite has a clue to what makes Mr Putin tick, though every now and then CNN leads with news about dissidence and likely successors from the liberal right of Russia.
What Ukraine as a conflict has brought to bear is how, using a conflict evolving half way across the world, domestic narratives are being built in most democracies, including US, UK, Australia and India. The recent spate of 'good news' from Ukraine by its blitzkrieg across Kharkiv Oblast which followed the predictable discovery of 'mass graves' in another city after Bucha where Russians had retreated, is how Americans are being sold on this theme that Ukraine will end up winning eventually. The resonance of this narrative is founded on human emotive yearnings of 'underdog emerging a winner', about the 'last stand of a folk standing up for freedom', stuff that is better suited for JRR Tolkien sagas than actual news reporting from the zone of Special Military Operations that are underway there. One rarely comes across a counter narrative like this one from 'responsiblestatecraft.org' which has a hard nosed pragmatic view of the situation in Ukraine, one those who read this blog thread on Ukraine would be familiar with. Then we see how the news about referendums in three major Ukrainian regions is handled.
The news about Mr Putin's partial mobilisation order too gets painted as a overt nuclear threat, a Russian decision to wage all out war against NATO, or the narrative spins are about dissident and diffident Russians who seek to dodge the draft. A major grass roots movement is currently underway in the 'Axis of Evil' that obsesses the West, but not in Russia, not in China or North Korea, it is in Iran. And the protests there are from women who are outraged over the murder in custody of a woman by the police who enforce their harsh Islamic prudery. However it is not just the West is obsessed with Russia as a state, but in the larger strategic calculus, the West is obsessed with showing Russia as now getting isolated. So PM Modi's remarks at the SCO Summit were pitched into some kind of shift of India's stance from neutral and anti war to now pro West and anti Russian. There are many Indian origin votaries both domestic and abroad who are part of a caucus that wants to swing India away from strategic neutrality ( which Nehru had christened as Non Aligned) to becoming a camp follower and foot soldier of the Americans who now lead the West. Curiously these are the very folk who on social media wish to throw out all colonial era influence in India, who now wish that India hang on to the apron strings of America. So CNN actually runs an article of how US plans to wean India off Russia. Of course, no Indian analyst has an answer for how Cryogenic Engine technology came about or how India solved her N Reactor needs for her SSN fleet, or how 15 years after the N Deal between India and US, the 123 Agreement has not facilitated any exchange of critical technologies for India. Of course, Indian media lapped up much of this surf as a vindication of India's stature as VishwaGuru. The call by Mexico at the UNGA to have India lead the negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine was prominently carried by Indian tabloids and broadsheets. In fact the Indian press has already pushed India into the anti Russian camp by headlines like "UNSC: Jaishankar takes a tough stance against Russia, targets Beijing also." (Indian Express)
When we take the eyes off from mainstream media of news papers and TV News Channels, and switch to social media, there too, Twitter, Facebook and WhatsApp see a clear anti Russian messaging, with threads and posts that make all manner of arguments and narratives about Russia losing this campaign. In that sense, Telegram stands like an outlier being Russian owned. It also makes a case where now ownership or origin determines narratives. A new version of 'Britannia Rules The Waves' is evident, that countries that own social media and networking platforms can swing narratives and influence outcomes especially in democracies where votes can be polarised using propaganda. So for countries that are neutral and not behind a national level firewall or substitute network and media solutions such as what China has, the bigger risk of narrative and information control during a strategic uncertainty either as war or in war like situation is obvious.
From how once luxury goods, modern electronic goods and entertainment devices, fashion and culture became the reason for aspiring to become Western for Soviet Bloc denizens who were behind an Iron Curtain to now, the way Cold War will be waged and won remains the same- story telling. Reader's Digest won over Sputnik, Reuters won over Tass and American vivid colour TV broadcasts won over Soviet telecasts. Newer applications and devices such as smart phones will continue to provide the West the edge and narrative control it needs to corner Russia. So sanctions against Russia would mean that iPhones and iWatches do not get into the flea markets of St Petersburg, even as Germany suffers nationalising her gas importing and supplying companies. So as the conflict enters 2023, the play of sanctions and availability of goods would determine how in the long term, the Russian people now placed under the strictest of Western Sanctions would be affected in their choice of those. Likewise, how EU and other Western countries are able to balance their fuel consumption and ensuring their sources away from Russia, would determine how well they can hold those sanctions tight.
The first casualty of the Cold War is the trustworthiness of Western Media sources especially in former colonies like India. The BBC, the NYT and other traditional sources of 'true news' are getting a battering from their abuse as part of this Western narrative compulsion. Increasingly the West appears to look more and more assertive and less and less sure of the fidelity of its model of free market economy and liberal democracy, especially given how China appears as an alternative model with the CCP leadership. It would be tempting for more third world countries to adopt Chinese style filtering of news and social media going forward, depending on the eventual outcome in Ukraine and how soon it is settled. Most Cold War Watchers know that Olympics boycott of Moscow 1980 and Los Angeles 1984 were clinchers in the eventual denouement as was the Star Wars project announced with great fanfare by President Reagan. Today if Russia and China were to avoid any sporting meet, it would affect the quality of that meet. China has been a dominant sporting nation for the past decade. China is the factory of the world. China is assiduously building its own applications for smart phones and tablets, it is a leader in 5G as well as drones. The way the West won the first Cold War cannot be repeated for this round. The strategic detente between Beijing and Moscow will widen and cover more areas now, given the sanctions West has imposed, some thing that was not part of the First Cold War. In Post Truth World, the importance of information warfare as Psy Ops or as narrative dominance in media channels and platforms offers renewed leverage to the West. However on the flip side, the West cannot stretch its credulity to a breaking point. There definitely is a law of diminishing returns at play in such information warfare. The longer or repeated a theme playing out, the more its credibility is suspect.
Diplomacy or strategic calculations are not fought from tabloid mastheads or through tweets. Ultimately the deft postures and the hard military manoeuvres that form part of real politik are not swayed by such pushing. Despite that, democracies being vote sensitive, can be captured through narrative manipulation. A claim laid by Democrats in the US against the Trump Presidential Campaign of 2016, the Remain against the Leave in Brexit both of which apparently was footed by Russia. So this round of Cold War reveals that West being more open and democratic offers windows for infowar as much as it uses those very tools to influence Russia and China domestically.
The knowns of our World just became more complex when the West unleashed this Cold War on Russia. As an analyst, one sees this as a two prong campaign, the first underway now is against Russia and at some time, this campaign will get extended to involve China as well. How China and Russia cope in this majorly (cyber/virtual) info warfare scenario and how they address their vulnerabilities are as much important as how the West firewalls their societies to guard against manipulation from abroad. Instead of exchanging prisoners at Checkpoint Charlie, the new Cold War will see cryptologists, political influencers and social media mavens become legitimate targets. Was Daria Dugina's Assassination the First Blood?
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