Reading this in the Observer I was struck by a few points:
A clear majority of British voters now favours building closer relations with the European Union, according to new polling that highlights a dramatic reversal in the tide of public opinion since Brexit.
Even in those constituencies that recorded the highest votes to leave the EU in 2016, more than twice as many voters now believe the best route forward is to move in the opposite direction – and forge closer ties with Brussels.
The survey of more than 10,000 voters, for the internationalist campaign group Best for Britain, accompanied by detailed MRP (multilevel regression and poststratification) analysis based on new constituency boundaries, will provide sobering reading for Rishi Sunak, who backed Brexit as a route to greater economic success.
And:
The poll by Focaldata found that three times as many adults (63%) now believe Brexit has created more problems than it has solved, compared with just 21% who believe it has solved more than it has created.
And:
Overall, 53% of voters now want the government to seek a closer relationship with the EU than it now has, having left the single market and customs union, against just 14% who want the UK to become more distant.
I'd imagine the polling is accurate, and yet, look at that 53%, that's not that much higher than losing margin in the Brexit referendum. In other words only perhaps 5% has been added to the overall Remain vote. Granted that's not a question about Remain - this is simply (or most complexly) about a closer relationship whatever that may be. But look at the fact there's 10% who don't know what they think of a closer relationship. I'm not suggesting that sentiment hasn't changed, that combined 37% of those who don't want to change the current relationship or seek a more distant relationship (just 14% which is striking given the continuity hard-Brexit efforts amongst some on the Tory right) is small enough. But it's not an overwhelming change in sentiment.
There's little question but that Brexit has been hugely counter-productive to Britain. We know that most acutely on this island and for good reason. But in some ways all this is abstraction. The current government is likely to remain in power another few years. They most certainly will not change the relationship with the EU. Labour seems largely mute on the issue and while their return to power would likely ease matters yet further I wonder how far the current remarkably hesitant version of that party will want to shake things up in an area that it sees little scope for anything other than negative blowback to it? And beyond that, a sense that in truth the status quo, if it can be maintained in the face of the DUP, is likely to persist into the indefinite future. Whatever the polls say.
No comments:
Post a Comment