That RedC/SBP poll at the weekend

WorldbyStorm

May 29

So SBP/Red C have a new poll, and they're making a lot about actually relatively small movements. Richard Colwell of RedC writes;

Sinn Féin has regained the very high levels of support it last saw during summer 2022. The party has seen support rise by three percentage points, securing it 34 per cent of the first preference vote.

These gains appear to be very much at the expense of government parties. Fine Gael support drops by two percentage points, leaving the party with 20 per cent of the first preference vote, while Fianna Fáil also sees a marginal drop of one percentage point, leaving it at 15 per cent of the first preference vote.

Okay, it's 3%

So.

SF 34% +3

FF 15% -1

FG 20% -2

GP 4% NC

LAB 4% NC

SD 6% +1

PBP-SOL 3% +1

AONTÚ 1% -1

OTHERS/IND 13% -1

None of this is hugely striking. Sinn Féin was 35% in the last B&A/ST poll from early in the month. Ireland Thinks/SI had them at 31%. But in April they were on 37% for B&A/ST. So, we see some degree of variation. They remain, as always, the leading party in the polls. Colwell seeks to frame this in a number of ways.

Gains for Sinn Féin appear to be due, to some extent, to the considerable success they had in the local elections in Northern Ireland, much of which was covered in the news just before the poll took place. The respectability obtained by the party doing well in actual elections gives voters here the social proof that it is acceptable to also express their support for the party.

That's probably correct. Sinn Féin does have advantages other parties in the state do not enjoy, not least an aura of political achievement that sits outside the rhythm of ROI elections. That's enormously advantageous when they are seen to be successful. Doesn't always have to work that way if things dip for them.

Curiously though he doesn't mention the spat between the Coalition - ahem - partners this last week when polling was conducted. I'd think that might soften some support for those parties (and perhaps make them a little hesitant about directing their fire against one another rather than others - not that this actually proves anything much about that, but nonetheless, a bit of caution about being seen to be too eager to knock chunks out of one another appears logical).

No, indeed, he skips to this:

Concern among the public about the rehousing of refugees and the suitability of accommodation given to them is widespread, with three quarters of the electorate suggesting that they believe Ireland has now taken in too many refugees. A figure that rises to almost eight in ten among those over 35 and is a strong view of those in lower income areas and those more likely to vote for Sinn Féin.

All this can be true and yet politically have little impact.

Consider a post from Irish Elections Projections here from last month or so. Simply put they're not bothering to rank where this issue is for voters (as well as ignoring the obvious signs that the issue has broadly subsided, albeit it is far from a perfect situation. Very far indeed. Where do voters actually put the issue as against other issues?

Michael Brennan in another piece on. the same topic offers this:

The Red C poll shows a significant split in public opinion about accommodating asylum seekers. Around half of voters, 49 per cent, agree with the statement "I am not happy about the state's failure to provide accommodation for all asylum seekers who arrive here". But 40 per cent disagreed with this, suggesting they are supportive of what Mick Barry, the Solidarity TD, has branded as the government's "sleep in the streets" policy for new asylum seekers.

How nuanced is that analysis one wonders? Both cohorts could hold a range of opinions and attitudes. But the polling doesn't parse them out at all.

Or take this:

Around 76 per cent of people, for example, agreed with the statement "I can appreciate some of the anger people feel about asylum seekers being moved into their local area". That is a warning to government that there is a broad public acceptance that people can have legitimate concerns about the rapid establishment of some of the 145 new emergency accommodation centres since January last year.

That's quite some weight placed on the word 'appreciate' isn't it? One can appreciate the anger some of the residents of a local apartment block in the same complex as a refugee centre have (borne of lack of communication from the state etc as well as other factors) without jumping to the conclusion that these are 'legitimate' concerns or that this constitutes broad acceptance around the issue as framed in the article. Again the point is that the sentiment the polling reveals does exist, who would deny that, but that it is framed and presented in a way that reifies it and ignores all other elements. Even if these views were held uniformly it would make little difference in material terms. The state, and society, would still face precisely the same issues as it does now.a Ironically Brennan notes that we have international obligations (rightly so) as well as: 'Opposition parties have called on the government to develop a better way of communicating with communities – rather than just rushing in new asylum seekers with very little prior information.'

Sure Colwell concludes with this, which I largely agree with:

As I raised in January, the immigration issue has certainly become far more important to the political fortunes of the government parties than it once was. They need to find a way to solve the issue of housing asylum seekers, while also making sure they are seen to appreciate voters' concerns. More consultation and understanding are key, as well as perhaps a greater focus on the positive contribution of asylum seekers and immigrants generally to Irish society.

But just as ignoring the issue like the government has appeared to do is of no use, nor is presenting it as a larger issue than it actually is. As IEP noted:

You may remember my past issues with how Red C engaged in wild, incorrect and damaging speculation about the rise of racist rhetoric as an electorally influential force. Well, rather than just making things up without data, B&A actually went and did some research and guess what? Immigration is a top three issue for just 7% of voters, and a top issue for just 3%. And of that 7%, over 36% of them are likely non-voters (rising to over 42% of those who said it was the top issue). That pretty much shows the speculative stuff we saw in January was nonsense.

7% is not nothing, but nor is it something that is going to mobilise most voters. Worth keeping in mind when Colwell writes 'There also appears to be significant backlash against the government with regard to how it is dealing with asylum seekers and refugees arriving in Ireland'. Is there any such backlash? I'd wonder, and again that's not to say that the issue isn't discussed or that people don't have feelings on it.

Brennan in the SBP argues:

There is no large party as yet which has taken the type of anti-immigrant stance that has become part of politics in France, Italy, Germany, Sweden, Austria and other EU countries.

An existing party could pivot or a new anti-immigrant party could emerge to fill this political vacuum in the next general election. The continued presence of almost 12,000 people in emergency homeless accommodation makes the situation even more fraught. Thomas Gould, the Sinn Féin Cork North Central TD, warned in the Dáil last week that there were people who wanted to create a narrative of "us versus them".

Not helped much by this sort of polling.

Still what about the opening to the right?

Consider the polling above. Since the last RedC poll (ignoring all others which have higher ratings for FF) Fianna Fáil has lost 1% and Fine Gael 2%. The Green Party, a constituent element of the Coalition remains on 4%. How can that last be if this is such a live issue. Moreover look at the movement of votes - PBP and the SDs, who are more liberal on the issue gain support, marginal, but support nonetheless. Does that really fit the term 'backlash' over the crisis around refugees. And there's another oddity. Only this last week we saw an SF TD being lambasted by far-right individuals. Sinn Féin's approach on the issue is more of a piece with those other parties mentioned just now. Yet it is the one that benefits politically? That seems implausible in the context of the argument being made.

I'd argue that the movement we do see remains largely within the pre-existing bands of support that various parties have enjoyed or not across the last couple of years. Rather than there being large scale movements they're actually fairly minimal. Of course we've known small political parties live and prosper in two or three per cent in the polls across their lifetimes, but as of yet the results here don't seem to be hugely out of line with other polling and ascribing reasons above and beyond the general ineptitude of the government is not terribly useful.