Isn't there something fairly disingenuous about the following from Jeffrey Donaldson as noted by Freya Clements in The Irish Times:
Defending his party's performance, Donaldson told the BBC there was "no getting away from the fact that unionism needs to take a long, hard look at how we manage elections, the splintering of the unionist vote, the differential in turnout between areas".
It ignores the fact that Unionism itself is - obviously, divided between different approaches (does Donaldson think that the TUV and DUP constitute a seamless whole? Doubtful). The UUP offers a somewhat inchoate but possibly milder form of Unionism, the TUV a harder edged one again than the DUP. Alliance sits in an odd position being functionally Unionist while protesting that it would take no position on a border poll. Well, that's an experiment I'd love to run. Then there's the PUP, perhaps not unexpectedly stripped of its most high profile political representative.
Donaldson must be aware that in such a context there is little likelihood of Unionism coalescing around one brand of political Unionism - albeit there's a different matter of Unionism coalescing around the Union, in the main, should a border poll be run.
But as was pointed out on this site in comments, even were Unionism to simply attempt to pull all its multiple strands together that would not suffice to fend off the dynamics presented by a growing and more confident Republicanism and nationalist vote.
Indeed Donaldson is in a sense evading the issue completely - because he is not making any efforts to attract soft nationalist and other voters (and I know this is becoming a single transferable post but unfortunately the context is such that it continues to have relevance). This is in some respects inexplicable. At what point is it possible that Unionists will be open about the fact that, well, to put it bluntly, there are insufficient unionists to carry the day in the traditional way up until this last decade? Perhaps admitting to that truth is too great a step, that politically it is easier to pretend that all is well, that by some effort of will the numbers will fall right if only Unionism pulls together.
Clements notes:
Demographic and societal change has irrevocably altered the North's political landscape; though it is a crude yardstick, there are now more Catholics — more likely to vote for nationalist parties — in Northern Ireland than Protestants. Moreover the continued growth of Alliance, largely at the expense of unionist seats, is indicative of an appetite for an alternative among people who might once have voted unionist.
This is the changed reality with which unionism must now come to terms and attempt to address
While we cannot extrapolate from this PR election how people might vote when presented with the binary choice of a Border poll, it is nevertheless true that more people are choosing parties that want a united Ireland and fewer for those who wish to remain in the UK.
This is the changed reality with which unionism must now come to terms and attempt to address.
The MLA — and, briefly, DUP party leader — Edwin Poots described this election as a "wake-up and smell the coffee" moment for the party. What remains to be seen is if it can do so.
In some respects it hardly matters if a border poll is not imminent. The border poll is not the only game in town. The simple fact of nationalists and Republicans having this political prominence in the day to day affairs of Northern Ireland is a step-change. It's not simply power-sharing in the context of the GFA/BA, it is a broader integration into the structures of the polity - one that has been evident and will continue to be into the future. Small wonder that there is a suspicion and more than a suspicion (Clements notes it in her article) that one of the reasons the DUP has refused against the wishes of the other parties, bar TUV, to re-enter Stormont is because a Sinn Féin First Minister brings home in the most concrete form the nature of that integration.
Perhaps Donaldson realises there is an entirely new situation. And yet, I can't but recall that he along with some other familiar names was amongst that cohort of UUPers who jumped ship during the GFA/BA process to the DUP. That inflexibility, that unwillingness to face up to the reality that was taking place not merely in front of them but in which they were involved in terms of direct engagement with the process, suggests that they and he are not best placed to bring Unionism through what is likely its most existential crisis yet - albeit one that is unfolding very very slowly.
No comments:
Post a Comment