September's first poll dropped at the weekend. And it made for, well, the usual reading.
As RTÉ noted the Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll showed marginal enough movement.
Sinn Féin 33 -1
Fine Gael 21 +2
Fianna Fáil 18 NC
Independents 10 -1
SOcial Democrats 6 +1
Labour 3 -1
Solidarity-PBP 3 NC
Aontú 2 NC
Green Party 2 -3
In truth, bar the Green Party figures, not a huge change across the board. Any thoughts on why the Green Party has seen support dip so low at this point?
As Paul Cullotty notes in comments, Ireland Thinks offered a projection!
Paul notes that that SD figure seems bullish. It sure does. Interesting the GP would be so low. Labour would still return numbers but at just 3 that'd be a shocking fall for the party even at this point. Fascinating that Independents would lose just a quarter of their number. And Sinn Féin would have a commanding 67 seats. But not enough, not enough for a majority and with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil combined having more seats. Note too that this is based on the new Dáil seating numbers of 174. So, to have a majority a party or parties need to get 87 seats +1 at a bare minimum. Some hill for Sinn Féin to climb there.
I'd still argue that a continuity version of the political dispensation since the middle part of the last decade is most likely with Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Independents most likely to make up numbers. But even that is difficult to achieve.
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