Gallup: "President Joe Biden's job approval rating remains at 37%, tying his personal low, with disapproval at 59%."
"Approval ratings of the president's handling of healthcare (40%) and the situation in Ukraine (38%) are similar to his overall rating, while fewer, 32% each, approve of his handling of the economy, foreign affairs, and the situation between the Israelis and Palestinians."
CALIFORNIA 20TH DISTRICT. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) told the Daily Mail he still hasn't decided if he will seek re-election in 2024 after he was ousted by his colleagues two months ago.
Said McCarthy: "That's coming up. I've got to make a decision. I have my papers and I'm looking at it."
McCarthy also declined to say whether he would stay on the rest of his term if he does not run for re-election.
Dan Pfeiffer: "The American attention span has shrunk since Al Gore invented the Internet, and the pandemic disrupted the time-space continuum. Our memories are foggy, but it's still stunning that large swaths of the populace — including those who cover politics for a living — have forgotten what life was like with Donald J. Trump in the White House."
"Anyone who has listened to a focus group in the last couple of years knows that there is a real nostalgia for the pre-pandemic economy — even though that's the economy Barack Obama and Joe Biden built and Donald Trump destroyed by mismanaging the pandemic. This sentiment may be misguided. Yet, it is understandable as people navigate higher prices and higher interest rates. The misplaced nostalgia doesn't stop there. In a September Wall Street Journal poll, 52% of voters believe former president Trump 'has a strong record of accomplishments' compared to only 40% for Biden. Once again, this is an incorrect assessment of Trump's presidency. This foggy memory helps explain the declining share of Americans with concerns about Trump's mental fitness and temperament — two things that were top concerns only a few years ago."
"This forgetfulness is frustrating to the folks who continue to believe Trump is an existential threat."
COLORADO 3RD DISTRICT. "President Joe Biden will try to turn Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado into the embodiment of Republican opposition to his agenda as he visits her congressional district on Wednesday," the AP reports.
"Biden plans to tour CS Wind, the world's largest facility for wind tower manufacturing, in the town of Pueblo."
Playbook: "It's not the first time Biden has visited a Republican-held district to tout a big project that a hometown politico opposed — the CS Wind factory in Pueblo is expected to host a total of 850 new jobs by 2026 due to the Inflation Reduction Act — but the White House appears to be taking special delight in taking on the headline-grabbing Boebert, who is emblematic of the kind of 'MAGA Republican' that Democratic honchos want to draw a contrast with."
CONNECTICUT 1ST DISTRICT. Democratic Rep. John Larson's team tells Punchbowl News that he plans to seek a 14th term, information that comes months after he told WTNH in April that he was "leaning strongly toward running" again. The 1st District, which is based in the Hartford area, backed Joe Biden 63-35 in 2020.
CALIFORNIA 22ND DISTRICT. Gov. Gavin Newsom has endorsed 2022 nominee Rudy Salas' rematch campaign against GOP incumbent David Valadao. The former state assemblyman already had the support of Sen. Alex Padilla and the state Democratic Party for the March top-two primary for this Central Valley constituency.
Salas' only notable intraparty foe is state Sen. Melissa Hurtado, and he ended September with a $160,000 to $30,000 cash on hand edge. Valadao, who finished the third quarter with $1.2 million stockpiled, faces a challenge on his right from Chris Mathys, a wealthy perennial candidate who almost denied him a spot in last year's general election. Valadao went on to beat Salas 52-48.
CALIFORNIA 16TH DISTRICT. Longtime political observer Larry Gerston mentions California State Board of Equalization member Sally Lieber as a possible candidate to succeed her fellow Democrat, retiring Rep. Anna Eshoo, though Lieber herself hasn't given any indication if she's considering the idea ahead of the Dec. 13 filing deadline. Lieber previously announced that she would run for the seat on the Santa Clara County Board of Supervisors held by Joe Simitian, who himself has made it clear he wants to replace Eshoo in Congress.
NORTH CAROLINA 1ST DISTRICT. Politico reports that Matt Mercer, who is the editor of the North State Journal, is considering entering the GOP primary to take on Democratic Rep. Don Davis in this newly gerrymandered constituency. (The North State Journal was founded in 2016 by a former official in then-GOP Gov. Pat McCrory's administration, and Republican Supreme Court Justice Paul Newby is one of its investors.) The Tar Heel State's filing deadline is Dec. 15.
NEW YORK 11TH DISTRICT. The New York Post writes that New York City Councilman Justin Brannan is interested in seeking the Democratic nod to take on GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, and Brannan himself didn't rule anything out. The Brooklyn councilman instead said that "many people are urging" him to campaign against Malliotakis, adding, "The hardworking people of Bay Ridge and Staten Island want results, and that means they deserve a representative in Congress who's going to do more than go on TV and wage culture wars."
The current version of this seat backed Donald Trump 53-46, but Democrats are hoping that the state's court-imposed congressional map could change depending on the result of a lawsuit. (New York's highest judicial body, the Court of Appeals, heard arguments earlier this month.) Brannan, for his part, pulled off a 58-41 victory in a closely watched Nov. 7 race against his colleague, Democrat-turned-Republican Ari Kagan.
NEW YORK 26TH DISTRICT. The Buffalo News' Charlie Specht reported last week that Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz has been talking to local party officials about entering the upcoming special election to replace Rep. Brian Higgins, a fellow Democrat who will resign in the first week of February. Specht notes that Poloncarz has a close relationship with Erie County Democratic chair Jeremy Zellner, who may single-handedly get to pick the party's nominee for the special.
OHIO 6TH DISTRICT. State Sen. Michael Rulli told The Vindicator's David Skolnick just before Thanksgiving that he will decide soon if he'll enter the March GOP primary to succeed Rep. Bill Johnson, a Republican who will leave this dark red eastern Ohio seat behind to become president of the Youngstown State University. Trumbull County Commissioner Denny Malloy also informed the local NBC affiliate WFMJ that he's considering his own bid even though his county is entirely located in GOP Rep. Dave Joyce's 14th District. Johnson has yet to say when he'll resign from Congress, but the deadline to run for a full two-year term is Dec. 20.
Skolnick also mentions state Rep. Ron Ferguson as a possible GOP candidate, as well as two familiar names: former state Rep. Christina Hagan, who lost to Democratic incumbent Tim Ryan in a 2020 battle for the old 13th District, and businesswoman Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, who unsuccessfully took on Democrat Emilia Sykes last year for the revamped 13th. Gesiotto Gilbert previously launched a rematch bid against Sykes, but she dropped out in August after barely raising any money.
Skolnick adds that, while attorney Christian Palich initially considered running to replace Johnson, he has "since changed his mind."
MINNESOTA 3RD DISTRICT. MPR News' Dana Ferguson says that two Republicans, state Rep. Kristen Robbins and 2022 attorney general nominee Jim Schultz, have told her that they won't run to succeed outgoing Democratic Rep. Dean Phillips. Ferguson also mentions businesswoman Sheila Qualls, the wife of 2022 nominee Kendall Qualls, as a possible contender, but there's no word on her interest.
PENNSYLVANIA 17TH DISTRICT. Pastor Jim Nelson announced last week that he was exiting the GOP primary to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Chris Deluzio, and he used his op-ed on triblive.com to torch the one notable Republican who's still in the running. "The race for Pennsylvania's District 17 is no different with the entrance of Rob Mercuri, a party-encouraged state representative with an extremist voting record who has put Republicans in the position of explaining themselves rather than appealing to crucial swing voters in a diverse district," wrote Nelson. "We've forfeited this race to the left before it has even begun with a candidate who cannot win."
VIRGINIA 7TH DISTRICT. The Washington Post writes that state Sen. Jeremy McPike is considering entering the Democratic nomination contest for this open seat, though there's no quote from him. McPike won renomination by 50 votes in June against Del. Elizabeth Guzmán, and she's since formed an exploratory committee for her own potential bid to succeed outgoing Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger.
NORTH CAROLINA 11TH DISTRICT. Democratic state Rep. Caleb Rudow declared Tuesday that he would challenge freshman Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards in the 11th District, a western North Carolina constituency that would have favored Donald Trump 55-44 under the GOP's new gerrymander. Edwards won this seat last cycle months after he denied renomination to Rep. Madison Cawthorn, and the new congressman hasn't attracted anything like the national attention that stuck to his notorious predecessor.
TEXAS 26TH DISTRICT. Former Denton County Judge Scott Armey filed FEC paperwork just before Thanksgiving, and he told the Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek that he'd use that holiday to talk to his family about a potential bid to succeed outgoing Rep. Michael Burgess. Armey competed in the 2002 GOP primary to succeed his father, retiring Majority Leader Dick Armey, but he lost the runoff to Burgess 55-45. Texas' filing deadline is Dec. 11, so the field will be set here soon.
Keller Mayor Armin Mizani told the Texas Tribune Monday that he'd stay out of the GOP primary to replace retiring Republican incumbent Michael Burgess.
TEXAS 28TH DISTRICT. The Texas Tribune reported last week that, while attorney Jessica Cisneros still hasn't closed the door on a third Democratic primary bid against conservative incumbent Henry Cuellar, "few believe she is inclined to try again."
VIRGINIA 7TH DISTRICT. Prince William County Supervisor Margaret Franklin declared Monday that she would run for the seat that her fellow Democrat, incumbent Abigail Spanberger, is giving up to run for governor in 2025. Franklin made history in 2019 when she became one of the first two Black women elected to serve on the governing body for this populous county, and she'd also be the first African American to represent Northern Virginia in Congress.
Franklin joins a nomination contest that already included Del. Briana Sewell, who would also be the region's first Black U.S. representative, and former National Security Council adviser Eugene Vindman. Outgoing Del. Elizabeth Guzman, a Democrat who would be Virginia's first Latino member, previously set up an exploratory committee for this competitive seat.
NORTH CAROLINA 13TH DISTRICT. State Rep. Erin Paré announced Tuesday that she was dropping out of the GOP primary for this newly gerrymandered seat and would instead seek reelection.
OHIO 9TH DISTRICT. Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur's team made it clear this week that she'd once again defend her competitive seat, though there wasn't any indication that she was looking to retire. "Congresswoman Kaptur will seek reelection, and will file her petitions in December as required," her spokesperson told Punchbowl News.
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