Sean Trende: "Elections analysts seem to know that they are obliged to mouth the words that Trump can win, but deep down, they don't believe them. The notion that Biden is the favorite is deeply internalized, likely for a variety of reasons."
"So let us set the record straight: Trump can win. Not in a 'maybe if all the stars align and then Russia changes the vote totals (even somehow in states like Michigan that use hand-marked paper ballots)' kind of way. Just flat out: Trump can win."
"As of this writing, Trump leads Biden by 2.6 percentage points nationally in the RealClearPolitics Average. This is Trump's largest lead in the RCP average to date. Not for 2024, mind you. Ever."
Nate Cohn argues that recent polls showing a close race between President Biden and Donald Trump should not be dismissed like some Democrats are trying to do.
But the bigger takeaway from his piece is that there's a lot less stability in these polls.
He writes: "This is not an election where almost all voters like their own party's candidate while disliking the opposing party's candidate and disagreeing with them on the issues. Instead, we have an unstable arrangement: Millions of voters dislike both candidates, entertain minor-party candidates and when pressed often say they would vote for someone from the other major political party whom they disagree with on many important issues. These are the textbook conditions for volatility…"
That's because polls conducted this far out from the election are almost entirely of registered voters and not likely voters. Figuring out who is likely to vote may be harder than normal this cycle.
NEW MEXICO REDISTRICTING. The New Mexico Supreme Court on Monday unanimously upheld a lower court ruling that had determined the state's Democratic-drawn congressional map did not violate the state constitution as an impermissible partisan gerrymander.
Republicans had argued that Democrats redrew the 2nd District following the most recent census in order to gain a partisan advantage, and the lower court agreed. However, the judge concluded that the map did not constitute an "egregious gerrymander" because the plaintiffs had failed to show that Democrats "were successful in their attempt to entrench their party" in power in the district.
While Democrat Gabe Vasquez unseated Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell last year, he did so by just 1,350 votes, a margin of 0.7%. Noting "the variables that go into predicting future election outcomes, coupled with the competitive outcome of the only actual election held so far" under the new map, the judge ruled that the map did not run afoul of the constitution. In a terse order that did not outline its reasoning, the state Supreme Court concurred.
Herrell had previously announced she'd seek a rematch with Vasquez. She does not yet appear to have commented on the new ruling.
PENNSYLVANIA ATTORNEY GENERAL. Delaware County District Attorney Jack Stollsteimer just became the fifth and likely final major Democrat to enter next year's race for Pennsylvania attorney general. Stollsteimer won his current post in 2019 by defeating Republican Kat Copeland 52-48, a victory that made him the first Democrat to ever win an election as the county's top prosecutor. Earlier this month, he easily secured a second term by a 61-39 margin.
Stollsteimer joins a crowded field that already includes former public defender Keir Bradford-Grey, who previously led the Defender Association of Philadelphia; state Auditor Eugene DePasquale; former Bucks County Solicitor Joe Khan; and state Rep. Jared Solomon. One final name who looks likely to stay out of the primary, though, is former Rep. Conor Lamb.
In September, Lamb announced that he'd given away leftover funds from his unsuccessful 2022 Senate bid by returning money to donors and contributing to other campaigns. As Pennsylvania election lawyer Adam Bonin noted, Lamb could have instead transferred that cash—about $140,000 in total—to a state campaign account. The fact that he didn't is a strong sign he doesn't plan to seek office next year.
Republicans have a contested primary of their own between Copeland and York County District Attorney Dave Sunday, who has the endorsement of the deep-pocketed Republican Attorneys General Association. A third candidate, state Rep. Craig Williams, is also likely to run. The position of attorney general is open next year because Democrat Michelle Henry, who was appointed by Gov. Josh Shapiro to succeed him following the 2022 elections, is not running for a full term.
State Rep. Craig Williams announced Tuesday that he'd compete in the April GOP primary for this open Democratic-held post, though national Republicans have already made it clear he's not their guy.
Earlier this fall, Williams suggested to GOP leaders that the organization viewed his potential candidacy favorably. RAGA executive director Peter Bisbee responded by trashing Williams, suggesting the state representative had hoped to mislead voters after he was seen taking selfies with the group's logo at their offices. RAGA went on to endorse York County District Attorney Dave Sunday earlier this month.
Williams launched his statewide effort by declaring, "I will campaign with grassroots volunteers while others rely on political insiders in Harrisburg and Washington, D.C. Their strategy loses elections time after time, and this next election is crucial for Republicans." He joins Sunday and former Delaware County District Attorney Kat Copeland in the nomination contest, while five major Democrats are also campaigning.
P.S. The Keystone State allows candidates to run for multiple offices at once, and Williams does not appear to have said if he'll also defend his 53-46 Biden state House seat in the Philadelphia suburbs. Williams last year won a second term 52-48 even as Democrats were taking a 102-101 majority in the lower chamber.
NEVADA REFERENDUM. A state court judge has blocked reproductive rights advocates from proceeding with plans to put an amendment before voters next year that would enshrine the right to an abortion into the Nevada constitution, ruling that the proposal violates a state requirement that ballot measures be limited to a single subject.
The amendment in question would guarantee Nevadans "the right to make and effectuate decisions about all matters relating to pregnancy," including the right to birth control, abortion, and infertility care. According to KOLO's Terri Russell, however, Judge James Russell concluded that "there are too many subjects. Not all of which are functionally related to each other." Organizers have already said they'll appeal to the state Supreme Court.
VIRGINIA REFERENDUM. Virginia Democrats announced earlier this month that they'll use their new majorities in both chambers to advance a constitutional amendment to protect abortion rights, though the earliest it can go before voters is 2026.
State law requires two consecutive legislative sessions to approve the same version of amendments before it can appear on the ballot, so Democrats almost certainly need to defend their state House majority in 2025 in order to make this happen. (Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin can't veto amendments.) The Old Dominion does not allow voters to place amendments on the ballot.
OHIO SUPREME COURT. The Ohio Democratic Party announced on Monday that Court of Appeals Judge Lisa Forbes would run for a Republican-held seat on the state Supreme Court next year, forming a slate with Justices Melody Stewart and Michael Donnelly, who are both seeking reelection. Republicans currently have a 4-3 majority on the court, which Democrats could reverse if all three of their candidates win.
Forbes, who hails from the Cleveland area, will try to flip the seat held by Joe Deters, but she won't actually face him. That's because Deters, who was appointed to fill a vacancy by Republican Gov. Mike DeWine a year ago, has said that he plans to challenge either Stewart or Donnelly for a full six-year term. His current post, by contrast, is only up for a two-year hitch, to fill the final portion of Chief Justice Sharon Kennedy's term. (Kennedy was an associate justice when she won the top job last year as part of a sweep by Republican hardliners.)
Earlier this year, Republicans endorsed their own slate, including Deters and two local judges, Dan Hawkins of Franklin County, and Megan Shanahan of Hamilton County. But since Deters has yet to decide which Democratic incumbent he'll run against, none of next year's matchups have been finalized.
MICHIGAN STATE HOUSE. Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer announced last week that special elections will take place on April 16 to succeed a pair of Democrats who resigned to become mayor of their respective communities, Kevin Coleman of Westland and Lori Stone of Warren, in what's temporarily an evenly divided chamber. Democratic state House Speaker Joe Tate previously agreed that it would not be "feasible" to have the specials occur sooner on Feb. 27 to coincide with Michigan's presidential primary, though he's also said that the chamber's rules don't require any power-sharing agreement with Republicans.
Monday was the filing deadline to compete in the Jan. 30 party primaries, and the state has a list of contenders here. Five Democrats and one Republican are running for Coleman's 25th District, which supported Joe Biden 59-40. Three candidates from each party, meanwhile, are campaigning for Stone's 13th, which went for Biden by a larger 64-35.
TENNESSEE REDISTRICTING. Tennessee Republicans will have to redraw their map for the state Senate after a panel of state court judges ruled that it violated a requirement in the state constitution that requires Senate districts in the same county to be numbered consecutively.
At issue are the four districts contained either wholly or partly within populous Davidson County, which is home to the state capital of Nashville. When the Republican-dominated legislature passed a new map last year, it numbered those districts as the 17th, 19th, 20th, and 21st. That, however, ran afoul of the constitutional provision in question, which ensures that large counties can't go four years between Senate elections
As is the case in many states, senators in Tennessee are elected to four-year terms, with half the chamber up for election every two years; even-numbered districts go before voters in presidential years while odd-numbered districts are up in midterm years. Under the GOP's map, however, three of Davidson's four districts held elections last year, while just one will do so next year.
It's unclear why Republicans chose to treat the county this way, and in fact they offered "no defense on the merits," as the court explained. Instead, they only challenged whether the plaintiffs had sufficient standing to challenge the map, an argument the court rejected. Lawmakers now have until Jan. 31 to adopt a remedial plan, though Republicans have indicated they may appeal. Last year, when the map was initially challenged, a lower court blocked its use but the state Supreme Court overturned that decision, saying that it would interfere with election administration.
HOUSTON MAYOR. SurveyUSA shows state Sen. John Whitmire beating Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee 42-35 in the first poll we've seen since both Democrats advanced to the Dec. 9 nonpartisan runoff. The poll was conducted from Nov. 13-18 on behalf of the University of Houston, the Houston Chronicle, and Houston Public Media days after Whitmire outpaced the congresswoman 43-36 in the first round of voting.
The only other runoff poll we've seen here in the last two months was an early October UH poll that the school conducted itself (SurveyUSA does not appear to have been involved), and it showed Whitmire ahead 50-36. This newer offering from SurveyUSA, however, asked several other questions ahead of the horserace, including whether respondents felt their homes are "safe from extreme weather events" and if their neighborhoods are safe to walk in. We always encourage pollsters to ask these sorts of questions after the horserace to avoid "priming" voters to lean one way or the other.
Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee earned an endorsement from Bill Clinton on Tuesday, a move that comes weeks after she picked up Hillary Clinton's support. Jackson Lee faces her fellow Democrat, state Sen. John Whitmire, in the Dec. 9 nonpartisan runoff.
SALT LAKE CITY MAYOR. The Associated Press has called Tuesday's nonpartisan race for incumbent Erin Mendenhall, who defeated former Mayor Rocky Anderson 58-34. Mendenhall is a Democrat, while Anderson is a former Democrat who waged a third-party campaign against President Barack Obama from the left in 2012 and now no longer identifies with any party.
MONTANA REFERENDUM. The campaign to bring a top-four primary to Montana got some welcome news last week when the state Supreme Court unanimously overruled a move by Republican state Attorney General Austin Knudsen that would have kept a proposed constitutional amendment off the 2024 general election ballot. Montanans for Election Reform isn't done dealing with Knudsen, however, as he still has to review a second ballot measure that would require winning candidates to secure a majority of the vote.
The Montana Free Press explains that MER wants to implement a system similar to that used in Alaska, under which all candidates, regardless of party, would compete in one primary. The four contenders with the most votes would then advance to an instant-runoff general election.
The amendment that the Supreme Court acted on, which the secretary of state's office has designated Ballot Issue 12, would replace Montana's partisan primaries with a top-four setup. However, it doesn't include any rules for how the second round of voting would work, likely to avoid running afoul of the state's "single-subject" rule for ballot measures—which itself was at the core of MER's legal dispute with Knudsen.
To fill this gap, reformers are also proposing another amendment, Ballot Issue 13, "provide[s] that elections for certain offices must be decided by majority vote as determined as provided by law rather than by a plurality or the largest amount of the votes."
Both amendments would apply to the same set of elections: those for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, statewide posts, the legislature, "and other offices as provided by law." Issue 12 also contains provisions designed to ensure that third-party and independent hopefuls can still make the ballot, including one that limits the number of signatures needed to reach the primary.
Notably, though, Issue 13 does not require ranked-choice voting. Indeed, the GOP-led legislature banned instant-runoff voting earlier this year, and it's not clear what method the state would use to ensure winners secure a majority of the vote if voters were to approve the amendment.
MER sued Knudsen last month after he determined that Issue 12 violated the state constitution by addressing too many separate issues. Montana's highest court, however, disagreed with the attorney general's interpretation and sided with the plaintiffs. While Knudsen insisted that the signature requirements were a separate topic from the top-four system, Chief Justice Mike McGrath wrote that "the signature-gathering limitation is not a separate function but is rather, as MER asserts, an integral part of the top-four primary system BI-12 proposes."
MER now has until June 21 to collect 60,000 signatures, an amount equal to 10% of the vote in the most recent election for governor, including 10% in at least 40 of the 100 districts in the state House. Organizers can only start the signature gathering process for Issue 12, though, since Knudsen has not yet finished his review of Issue 13.
Both of the proposed amendments come after the state's junior U.S. senator, NRSC chair Steve Daines, reportedly pressured the legislature to make a very different change in order to weaken Democratic Sen. Jon Tester next year.
The state Senate passed a bill in the spring to implement a top-two primary system, but only for Montana's 2024 U.S. Senate race. Critics argued the move was a scheme to hurt Tester in a state where Republicans frequently complain that Libertarian Party candidates cost them vital support. Indeed, one unnamed GOP lawmaker told the New York Times that party officials outright said that beating Tester was the plan's purpose.
However, the legislature adjourned in May without agreeing on anything, so Tester still only needs to secure a plurality to win reelection next year.
ARKANSAS REFERENDUM. Republican Attorney General Tim Griffin on Tuesday blocked a proposed abortion rights amendment from going forward. Griffin told Arkansans for Limited Government that both the title of its amendment, "The Arkansas Reproductive Healthcare Amendment," and the ballot summary were potentially "misleading" and needed to be reworked. The committee responded, "We are committed to supporting a ballot proposal that is clear for Arkansas voters."
ALG is seeking to end the state's near-total abortion ban and allow the procedure to take place up to 18 weeks through a pregnancy, but Griffin isn't the only major obstacle it has to overcome. Anyone looking to place an amendment on the 2024 ballot must gather petitions from about 91,000 voters, a figure that represents 10% of the ballots cast in the most recent gubernatorial election, by July 5.
A new GOP law also requires organizers to hit certain targets in 50 of Arkansas' 75 counties, which is a huge hurdle for progressives in a state where Joe Biden carried only eight counties. ALG may also be in for a tough campaign even if it can overcome all of this and get a proposal on the ballot: Civiqs finds that 52% of the state's voters believe that abortion should be illegal all or most of the time, while 44% say the opposite.
WISCONSIN SUPREME COURT. Janet Protasiewicz's win in April gave progressives their first majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court since 2008, but conservatives already have a candidate lined up for their 2025 campaign to retake control. Multiple media outlets report that former Attorney General Brad Schimel will announce Thursday evening that he'll challenge liberal incumbent Ann Walsh Bradley for a 10-year term. Bradley, for her part, said she planned to seek reelection following Protasiewicz's victory.
Schimel was elected attorney general during the 2014 red wave, but Democrat Josh Kaul ousted him 49.4-48.8 four years later. The Republican, however, didn't need to spend much time looking for a new job: Gov. Scott Walker, who also lost reelection that evening to Democrat Tony Evers, made Schimel a Waukesha County Circuit judge just before leaving office.
Schimel may not be the only conservative running, as state Appeals Court Judge Maria Lazar told WisPolitics Monday, "I have not made a decision despite the fact that Brad's announcing." All the candidates will compete in a February nonpartisan primary, and the top two candidates will advance to the April general election.
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