So, the Irish Times suggests, having had a chat with Adrian Kavanagh, Marian Harkin and Malcolm Byrne of Fianna Fáil, that Sinn Féin might be the big winner in Europe this year.
Kavanagh points to the reality that the local elections held the same day are the key motivator driving voters to the polls. The European's are an afterthought, but afterthought or not people vote. They have impacts. A surge for Sinn Féin cannot but be a good thing for that party (conversely Kavanagh notes that Peter Casey's strong showing in the European and Presidential elections sputtered out in the general election - but then personality functions in interesting ways around this area).
Last time around it was Fine Gael who won big. This time - Sinn Féin are expected to do well.
For one, none think that Fine Gael will be able to hold on to five seats, and all are of the view that Sinn Féin will recover and win three seats, and possibly more. Fianna Fáil could end up being the beneficiary of the extra seat in MNW where it has not had an MEP since 2014. The selection of a big hitter such as Barry Cowen will certainly aid its chances.
It's much harder to predict the fate of the Greens or the Independents. Wallace in the South constituency and Daly in Dublin have faced criticism for their views on Russia and China and their courting of autocratic regimes. It is sure to have an impact on their vote share.
Kavanagh says that in 2019, the two picked up what had been Sinn Féin seats. "This time around, it might be a case of the seats just naturally gravitating back to Sinn Féin."
Harkin and Byrne think some anti-immigrant candidate might emerge in the rural constituencies (the IT puts it more delicately than that - "a strong rural profile and whose message chimes with the negative-trending sentiment in local communities towards housing asylum seekers and refugees in towns and villages"). One recalls the curious, almost baffling, solo run Harkin took on immigration which received an interesting overview in the IT itself here. They think the issue will be a big 'theme'. We'll see.
Amazing who is standing - step forward Peadar Tóibín of Aontú - though one suspects some of that is profile building for parties. Labour may be going that route too. The piece argues Finian McGrath might be in with a chance in Dublin, but Sinn Féin's Daithí Doolan might take a second seat. But if one impression comes across most strongly from the piece it is that there's no certainty at all about how all this will play out.
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