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Friday, 2 February 2024

The Political Report – February 2, 2024

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Site logo image Delaware Dem posted: " "Donald Trump is beating Nikki Haley 66% to 31% in her home state of South Carolina where a majority of those who liked her as governor are backing her opponent, according to a new poll and memo from the super PAC supporting the former presiden" Blue Delaware Read on blog or Reader

The Political Report – February 2, 2024

Delaware Dem

February 2

"Donald Trump is beating Nikki Haley 66% to 31% in her home state of South Carolina where a majority of those who liked her as governor are backing her opponent, according to a new poll and memo from the super PAC supporting the former president," The Messenger reports.

For comparison, the FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Trump ahead 65% to 31%.

Marjorie Taylor Greene has suggested Lauren Boebert may need to find alternative employment in the near future. https://t.co/xei6BgoIXY

— VANITY FAIR (@VanityFair) January 31, 2024

SOUTH CAROLINA 1ST DISTRICT. An advisor for former state cabinet official Catherine Templeton tells The Post and Courier's Caitlin Byrd that his client will announce on Feb. 5 that she's challenging Rep. Nancy Mace in the June 11 Republican primary.

Templeton served in then-Gov. Nikki Haley's administration as director of the state Department of Health and Environmental Control and planned to run to succeed the termed-out Haley in 2018.

Templeton went ahead with that campaign even after Haley resigned to join the Trump administration and Lt. Gov. Henry McMaster ascended to the top job, but her effort ended in failure. Businessman John Warren edged her out 28-21 for the second spot in the GOP primary runoff against McMaster, who took first with 42% and went on to secure a full term.

Templeton, though, isn't the only new name who could campaign against Mace. GOP state Rep. Sylleste Davis tells Byrd she's not ruling out a bid, though she says she might wait until the April 1 filing deadline to make up her mind. Meanwhile, Mace's former chief of staff, Dan Hanlon, also set up a campaign account last week, though he didn't immediately announce a bid. A June 25 runoff would take place if no one earns a majority of the vote.

"If [E. Jean] Carroll's trial revealed anything, it was that women—and particularly outspoken women—trigger Trump."@MollyJongFast reports: https://t.co/YFLRddVie1

— VANITY FAIR (@VanityFair) January 29, 2024

NEW YORK 26TH DISTRICT. A spokesperson for Democratic Rep. Brian Higgins, who said in November that he would resign from the House, tells the Buffalo News that the congressman's last day in office will be Friday. Higgins' departure will kick off a special election to fill New York's solidly blue 26th District in the Buffalo area.

Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul will then have up to 10 days to call the election, which must then take place 70 to 80 days after her proclamation. Assuming Hochul sets the election for a Tuesday, possible dates would be April 16, 23, or 30.

Local Democratic leaders have chosen state Sen. Tim Kennedy as their nominee while Republicans don't appear to have picked a candidate yet. Kennedy also faces a June 25 primary for a full two-year term against former Grand Island Town Supervisor Nate McMurray.

SCOOP: The Democratic Governors Association raised $71.5 million last year — a record for an off year that helped Democrats hold a seat in Kentucky and build momentum into 2024, Axios has learned. https://t.co/E8RLtTe0t9

— Axios (@axios) January 30, 2024

NEW YORK 16TH DISTRICT. Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman told the Daily Beast's William Bredderman this week that he "regrets" using an old blog to spread conspiracy theories about the Sept. 11 attacks, ideas he says does not believe in. Bowman, Bredderman reports, posted a "free verse" poem in 2011 with lines like, "Allegedly/Two other planes/The Pentagon/Pennsylvania/Hijacked by terrorist [sic]/Minimal damage done/Minimal debris found/Hmm."

Bowman faces a Democratic primary challenge from George Latimer (D).

The House Ethics Committee announced Thursday that it was ending its probe into Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman for pulling a fire alarm at the Capitol in September. The body said that it would not sanction the congressman even though it found his explanations about the incident "less than credible and otherwise misleading," adding that he "failed to take appropriate steps to mitigate the risk of unnecessary harm."

Bowman, who has insisted he believed the alarm would open a locked door as he was "rushing to a vote," pleaded guilty in October for "willfully or knowingly" instigating a false alarm. The case was dismissed Thursday after it was determined that Bowman had paid his $1,000 fine and apologized to the Capitol Police. The congressman faces serious opposition in the June 25 primary from Westchester County Executive George Latimer, though the challenger did not mention the fire alarm incident in his December launch video.

MISSOURI 1ST DISTRICT. Rep. Cori Bush confirmed Tuesday that she's under federal investigation, an unwelcome development for the second-term congressman that comes six months ahead of a difficult Democratic primary against St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell.

The Department of Justice has said little about its probe, but Bush, who has denied wrongdoing, indicated that it concerns her campaign's payments to her husband for security work. A previous complaint by conservative critics was dismissed by the Office of Congressional Ethics, but the DOJ has far more investigative firepower, including the ability to issue subpoenas.

E. Jean Carroll wants to do "anything" she can to help Joe Biden defeat Donald Trump — but don't expect Biden to take her up on the offer, @ShelbyTalcott writes in Principals.https://t.co/sggdqdwK9B

— Semafor (@semafor) January 31, 2024

MARYLAND 6TH DISTRICT. Businessman Altimont Mark Wilks, who won two lawsuits against the federal government after he was denied access to federal programs because of his prior criminal history, became the 12th Democrat to join the race for Maryland's open 6th District. Wilks and his many rivals are competing to succeed Democratic Rep. Dave Trone, who is running for the Senate.

Wilks, explains The Frederick News-Post, was released from prison in 2018 after serving a 13-year sentence for drug and firearm-related crimes. He went on to open a convenience store, and in 2020 he sought loans from the Paycheck Protection Program, the pandemic-era government program designed to help keep businesses afloat.

The Small Business Administration initially refused to allow him to participate in the program because of his conviction, but a judge sided with him. Wilks, though, wasn't entirely happy with the result. "I felt elated, but at the same time, it didn't change much," he said. "It just changed the rules, which means they can change the rules again."

Wilks faced similar obstacles last year when the U.S. Department of Agriculture permanently denied his application to become a Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program retailer because of his background. Wilks once again sued, telling WYPR, "I'm being discriminated against, because I made bad choices in life. But I served my time." The USDA ultimately settled by allowing Wilks to become a SNAP retailer and agreeing to rework its rules.

One presenter at the American Opportunity Alliance summit this week:

Bill Hagerty, who talked up the RNC's reinvigorated vote-by-mail program.https://t.co/0d2rltYTM6

— Teddy Schleifer (@teddyschleifer) January 31, 2024

MARYLAND 2ND DISTRICT. Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski announced Tuesday that he would run to succeed retiring Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger in Maryland's reliably blue 2nd District. Olszewski, who often goes by "Johnny O," joins Del. Harry Bhandari in the May 14 Democratic primary.

Olszewski, the son of a former member of the County Council, began his own political career in 2006 when local Democrats picked the then-23-year-old to fill a vacant seat in the state House. The Baltimore Sun described him in 2013 as a member of the "traditional blue-collar, pro-labor but socially conservative wing of the Democratic Party." The story noted that Olszewski had opposed then-Gov. Martin O'Malley's gun safety legislation and a bill to repeal the death penalty, though he also supported legalizing same-sex marriage.

Olszewski ran for the state Senate in 2014, but that year's red wave helped carry Republican Johnny Ray Salling to a 48-45 victory. Olszewski sought a comeback four years later when he ran for Baltimore County executive, a post once held by Ruppersberger. (The late Republican Vice President Spiro Agnew also occupied that office in the mid-1960s.)

In that race, Olszewski sought to rebrand and campaigned as "the progressive Democrat" in the primary. He ended up defeating state Sen. James Brochin 32.88-32.86―a margin of 17 votes―with County Council member Vicki Almond just behind. He had no trouble winning that year's general election, however, and secured reelection in 2022 without any serious opposition. In June, he began raising money for a potential bid to replace Ruppersberger, who confirmed last week that he would retire.

The executive's Baltimore County base is home to 76% of the 2nd District's residents, with Carroll County making up another 20% and the balance residing in the city of Baltimore. (The city, which is surrounded almost entirely by the county, became an independent jurisdiction in 1851.) Olszewski himself acknowledges he lives "just barely" outside the district, though members of Congress aren't required to reside in the constituencies they represent.

Del. Harry Bhandari, who filed paperwork for a possible congressional bid before Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger announced his retirement last week, became the first Democrat to join Maryland's newest open-seat House race on Monday. Bhandari was born in Nepal and grew up in a village that lacked electricity, according to the Baltimore Sun's Lia Russell, before emigrating in 2005 to the United States, where he became a teacher and later won a seat in the Maryland legislature in 2018. He currently represents about 16% of the 2nd Congressional District, according to calculations by Daily Kos Elections.

Guess who is funding RFK's Jr. spoiler campaign?

Trump donors.https://t.co/YwjIAS61Ka

— Jesse Ferguson (@JesseFFerguson) January 31, 2024

CALIFORNIA 20TH DISTRICT. Election officials have posted a preliminary list of candidates who filed for the upcoming special election for California's vacant 20th Congressional District, which will feature a somewhat different roster than the regularly scheduled election for a full two-year term.

The three most notable Republicans are running in both races for this conservative district: Assemblyman Vince Fong, Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux, and casino owner Kyle Kirkland, though Fong's eligibility for the regular election is the subject of a legal challenge by Secretary of State Shirley Weber. A few lesser-known candidates are running only in one election or the other.

In the special, all candidates from all parties will appear together on a single ballot on March 19; if no one gets a majority, a runoff between the top two vote-getters—regardless of party— will take place on May 21. Prior to that, all contenders for the regular election will run in the March 5 primary, which is also a top-two affair. However, it's not possible to avoid a second round in November by taking more than 50%.

Trump is in a one-sided popularity contest with Taylor Swift, writes Intelligencer's Margaret Hartmann. And the masterminds on his 2024 campaign are reportedly plotting to wage war against one of America's most popular and beloved celebrities. https://t.co/q4GqlWDLen

— New York Magazine (@NYMag) January 30, 2024

FLORIDA 13TH DISTRICT. Sabrina Bousbar, a former official with the Department of Health and Human Services, has joined the Democratic primary for Florida's 13th Congressional District, a Republican-leaning seat in the St. Petersburg area. Politico's Kimberly Leonard says that Bousbar, the daughter of immigrants from Colombia and Morocco, would be the first Gen Z woman elected to Congress. She will compete against Whitney Fox, a former Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority official, and a handful of other candidates for the right to face freshman GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna.

NEW JERSEY 7TH DISTRICT. Summit Councilman Greg Vartan announced Thursday that he was dropping out of the Democratic primary to take on Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. Vartan's departure leaves former Working Families Party state director Sue Altman and former State Department official Jason Blazakis as the only notable candidates competing in the June 4 nomination contest.

MICHIGAN 8TH DISTRICT. Flint Mayor Sheldon Neely, who recently filed paperwork with the FEC, tells MLive's Ron Fonger that he's "planning on making an announcement in February" about whether he'll join the Democratic primary for Michigan's open 8th District. Flint is the largest city in the district and makes up about a tenth of its population, according to data from Daily Kos Elections. A large number of candidates in both parties have previously launched bids for this swingy seat.

Trump's elected-official endorsements and donor support are now overwhelming, and not just in Nikki Haley's South Carolina. He's not fighting the Republican Establishment; he owns it. https://t.co/vMxvaYBAsf

— New York Magazine (@NYMag) January 31, 2024

NORTH CAROLINA 6TH DISTRICT. Journalist Bryan Anderson reported Thursday that Speaker Mike Johnson has yanked back his endorsement of former Rep. Mark Walker, though Walker claims the reversal actually happened several months ago.

The former congressman tells The News & Observer that Johnson backed him before becoming speaker in October but then notified him the following month that he would now be neutral in the March 5 Republican primary. Walker also showed the paper a text that reporter Danielle Battaglia says "seemingly confirms" he was Johnson's initial pick.

However, Johnson, at least, did in fact support Walker at some point. Not so, however, with another member of Congress whose endorsement Walker has claimed. Walker has posted on social media that he had the backing of Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin, but the senator's staff now tells N&O that no such endorsement ever happened. "I don't know what's going on," said Mullin's chief of staff.

Nikki Haley's path to nomination depends on Trump succumbing to his legal problems. But if that happens, the delegates Trump will soon pile up would turn to almost anyone other than his current rival, writes Intelligencer's Ed Kilgore. https://t.co/gHmsQLTzAY

— New York Magazine (@NYMag) January 30, 2024

INDIANA 8TH DISTRICT. State Sen. Mark Messmer on Thursday became the first elected official to announce a bid to replace retiring Rep. Larry Bucshon, a fellow Republican. Messmer previously served as the chamber's majority floor leader, but he set his sights higher in 2022 when he challenged Senate President Pro Tem Rodric Bray for the top job. Bray prevailed, though, and the Indiana Capital says that Messmer lost his leadership positions afterward.

COLORADO 5TH DISTRICT. Former Colorado Secretary of State Wayne Williams said on Friday that he would not enter the GOP primary to succeed retiring Rep. Doug Lamborn but would instead endorse conservative radio host Jeff Crank.

NEW YORK 3RD DISTRICT. A top GOP super PAC is dumping even more money into the special election to replace ex-Rep. George Santos, and once again they are doubling down on an immigration-centric attack," Politico reports.

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