Swing-state voters across every major demographic group describe President Joe Biden as too old, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll has found.
But almost six in 10 swing-state voters labeled Donald Trump as dangerous.
Pew Research: "No single issue stands out after the economy. Nearly three-quarters of Americans (73%) rate strengthening the economy as a top priority. That is considerably larger than the shares citing any other policy goal."
"Republicans are trapped in a political minefield over reproductive rights, paralyzed in fear that their vulnerabilities on abortion and in-vitro fertilization could hand Democrats the 2024 election," Axios reports.
"Rarely has a political issue proven so salient, so personal and so animating for voters at both the state and national level. The Alabama Supreme Court's ruling on IVF suggests the fallout from the end of Roe v. Wade is far from contained."
"The biggest labor union in Washington state endorsed voting 'uncommitted' in the state's Democratic presidential primary next month, citing concerns about President Joe Biden's political strength and his support for Israel's war in Gaza," NBC News reports.
NEW YORK REDISTRICTING. "New York Gov. Kathy Hochul signed new congressional maps into law Wednesday, ending a three-year battle over partisan redistricting lines. One unsung winner: Rep. Jamaal Bowman, a two-term member of Congress facing a primary in New York's 16th congressional district," Semafor reports.
"Democrats gifted Bowman Co-Op City, a heavily Black-populated housing development in the Bronx with relatively high voter turnout. The move bolsters his chances against challenger Westchester County Executive George Latimer, who is backed by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. Bowman, who represents a significant number of Jewish-American voters, has come under fire from AIPAC for voting against pro-Israel resolutions in the House."
While many observers had expected (or hoped) that Democrats would draw an aggressive gerrymander, their new map made only modest changes to the commission's map—so modest that state GOP chair Ed Cox said his party had "no need" to sue because the "lines are not materially different from" the court-drawn map used in 2022.
That sentiment was shared by former Rep. John Faso, who helped lead the successful legal challenge to the map that Democrats passed two years ago. The map even received votes from more than a dozen Republican lawmakers, including Assembly Minority Leader Will Barclay.
Democrats also sent a bill to Hochul that would limit where redistricting lawsuits could be filed to just one of four blue counties—Albany, Erie, New York (Manhattan), or Westchester—to prevent Republicans from shopping for a favorable Republican judge, as they were accused of doing in their previous lawsuit. However, given the response from Republicans so far, that legislation may not ultimately matter for the new map.
Cook Political Report: "Forget the notion that New York Democrats would pull off a brazen power play to retaliate against the GOP's no-holds-barred gerrymander of North Carolina. On Wednesday, Gov. Kathy Hochul signed into law a new congressional map that makes only modest alterations to the bipartisan compromise hatched by the state's Independent Redistricting Commission — a far cry from the ambitious 22D-4R Democratic gerrymander New York's top court struck down in 2022."
"After Democrats spent millions suing to kickstart the redistricting process over again for 2024, many on the left are wondering, "All this trouble for that?" After all, party strategists are counting on a windfall of pickups in the Empire State to help Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries become speaker, but the new map makes just one GOP-held seat marginally bluer compared to the current court-drawn plan: the Syracuse seat held by Rep. Brandon Williams."
"Democrats still have a good chance at unseating up to four New York Republicans this fall, but that was true before this redraw. So why did Democrats in Albany hold back?"
MICHIGAN U.S. SENATOR. "Former Rep. Justin Amash, a Republican-turned-independent who voted to impeach then-President Donald Trump in 2019, jumped into Michigan's crowded GOP Senate primary Thursday," NBC News reports.
Said Amash: "After thoroughly evaluating all aspects of a potential campaign, I'm convinced that no candidate would be better positioned to win both the Republican primary and the general election."
Bill Scher: "Reagan's communications strategy was not all positive. His ad makers also took direct aim at the record of his predecessor. The political logic was straightforward. Reagan won in 1980 with the argument that people were not better off after four years of Jimmy Carter and Mondale. As his own four years were not without problems, he had to make sure his record would be judged in comparison to the worst possible characterization of his predecessor."
"Biden has the same challenge today. His media team should draw inspiration from Reagan's negative spots, and craft a parallel 'Nightmare in America' narrative of Donald Trump's time in office."
Ed Kilgore: "After months of suspense as to whether No Labels might run an independent candidate for president, frightening Democrats who in particular fear such an effort would doom Joe Biden against Donald Trump, a senior official tells me the group will make a formal decision next week…"
"Nikki Haley is the one available candidate that could give No Labels the kind of instant splash the group clearly craves, along with a tangible constituency composed of Never Trump Republicans, true independents, and perhaps even some disgruntled Democrats who have bought her recent self-description as a bridge over troubled partisan waters. There are problems with her as a proto-candidate, however. The most daunting could be the possibility that 'sore loser' laws in eight states could ban her from appearing on anything other than the Republican ticket in November."
John Hendrickson: "I've spent the past several weeks talking with No Labels' leaders, staffers, consultants, and opponents, trying to understand the organization's endgame. I came away confused, and convinced that the people behind No Labels are confused, too."
"They've correctly diagnosed serious problems in the American political system, but their proposed solution could help lead to its undoing."
Washington Post: "Just over a year in the job, Daines has all but cleared Republican fields in Indiana, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Montana for his chosen candidates. He has recruited former Maryland governor Larry Hogan (R) to put that state in play. He has discouraged multiple candidates, including former Indiana governor Mitch Daniels (R), from getting involved in primary contests, while appealing for muted infighting states like Michigan and Ohio. Most importantly, he has formed a close relationship with Trump, bridging the still-festering divide between the former president and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)."
"Brutal primary battles and problematic candidates have been the bane of Republican Senate leaders since the first inklings of the tea party in 2010 and 2012, when Missouri Republicans nominated a Senate candidate who said 'legitimate rape' rarely leads to pregnancy and Delaware got a nominee who campaigned with the slogan, 'I am not a witch.'"
"The 2022 elections proved a spectacular continuation of that losing theme — with a hapless Georgia candidate, Herschel Walker, who had held a gun to his wife's head; a struggling Pennsylvania TV doctor nominee in Mehmet Oz; and a mysterious Arizona contender, Blake Masters, who praised the Unabomber as an underrated 'subversive thinker.' Even before Election Day, McConnell warned, 'candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.'"
"If you resent me for the audacity to challenge Joe Biden, at least you'll appreciate how relatively strong I'm making him look among primary voters!"— Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN), commenting on his fourth place finish in the Michigan Democratic primary.
Politico: "This was not a magnanimous candidate looking to mend the intraparty fracture on full display in exit polls from each of the early electoral contests. This was not a competitor looking to pivot to going after President Joe Biden."
"This was a former president entering the general election actively exacerbating divisions within the GOP — at a time when some Republicans are openly warning about the risk of alienating even a small segment of the Republican electorate. Trump has every rational incentive to make overtures to Haley and her supporters, who delivered her roughly 40 percent of the vote in New Hampshire and South Carolina and who are the kind of voters Trump will need to turn out in Michigan and Pennsylvania in November. But he refused to do so — or, perhaps, was incapable of it — despite making head feints in that direction."
Nikki Haley told CBS News that Democratic party leaders are "scrambling to figure out" who their nominee will be this fall because it's "not going to be Joe Biden." She added: "They've got to figure out what's next, who's next."
Donald Trump had been using the same message, telling Fox News in December: "I personally don't think he makes it." He told Breitbart the same thing: "I cannot believe he's going to be the nominee. I hope he is. But I can't believe he's going to be the nominee."
The messaging seems to be having an impact on voters — even though there's no indication Biden will drop his re-election campaign. A recent Monmouth poll found that nearly half of all voters think Biden ultimately won't be the Democratic nominee.
On one level it makes sense, because highlighting Biden's advanced age probably helps Republicans. And it keeps the focus on him and not Trump. But what Republicans are really trying to do is to push off the inevitable realization that the presidential race will be a rematch between Biden and Trump. That turns the election into a clear choice between two very well known men. That's why Biden famously says: "Don't compare me to the almighty. Compare me to the alternative."
With Trump's incredible baggage, it's a race he's confident he can win.
The outside group supporting Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s independent presidential bid has gathered enough signatures to qualify Kennedy to appear on the ballot in two key battleground states in November, Arizona and Georgia, CNN reports.
Meanwhile, Puck reports Kennedy lost his national finance director.
New York Times: "Nonvoters aren't starkly different from voters. In fact, in presidential elections, the most significant predictor of nonvoting is simply youth. Roughly 75 percent of nonvoters pay at least some attention to politics… They're more like spectators who keep one eye on the score but choose not to join the game."
South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R), who is rumored to be on the shortlist for Vice President, met Monday with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, the Daily Caller reports.
Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fl) said Tuesday he would support Donald Trump as the party's nominee for president, even if he's convicted of a crime, The Hill reports. Said Scott: "Absolutely."
KENTUCKY U.S. SENATOR. Sen. Mitch McConnell announced on Wednesday that he would relinquish his role as the GOP's Senate leader in November, ending his tenure as the chamber's longest-serving party leader.
The 82-year-old McConnell has faced questions about his health following two televised incidents in 2023 in which he froze while speaking publicly, but he indicated he intends to remain in the Senate until his term ends in 2027. Were McConnell to leave early, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear would be required to name another Republican in his seat after state lawmakers passed a law requiring same-party appointments in the event of vacancies in 2021.
First elected in 1984, McConnell has led Republicans in the upper chamber since early 2007, including six years as majority leader between 2015 and 2021. McConnell's tenure as leader coincided with a historic escalation in Republican obstruction tactics and norm-breaking.
But despite blockading Senate Democrats' agenda and enabling Donald Trump at nearly every step, McConnell earned the ire of diehard Trump supporters by blaming him for the Jan. 6 attack, though he ultimately voted not to convict Trump following his second impeachment. Nonetheless, McConnell won his final term as leader last year by a 37-10 margin among Senate Republicans.
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