Stephen Wolf: "Now that congressional maps are likely finalized for the 2024 elections, we know that the House battlefield will be even more tilted toward Republicans this year than it was in 2022."
"This state of affairs is a direct result of Republicans in Congress and the Supreme Court's conservative supermajority repeatedly blocking efforts to end gerrymandering nationwide."
"As the Biden campaign touted Thursday night's $25 million fundraiser as a political record, word leaked about a Trump campaign event that organizers say will raise even more — at least $33 million," Axios reports.
"Trump will host donors on April 6 at Mar-a-Lago for a fundraiser hosted by New York hedge fund billionaire John Paulson, who has been floated by Trump as a possible Treasury secretary."
DCCC: The DCCC announced on Thursday that it had added four candidates to its "Red to Blue" program, which highlights contenders the committee thinks have the strongest chance of picking up Republican-held districts or defending competitive open seats. The new additions are:
CA-45: Derek Tran
CA-47: Dave Min
NJ-07: Sue Altman
NY-04: Laura Gillen
While the DCCC included a few contenders in competitive primaries when it released its first list in January, that's not the case for this quarter. Both Tran and Min already advanced out of their respective primaries, while Altman is the only Democrat who filed to take on GOP Rep. Tom Kean.
Candidate filing is still open until April 4 in New York, but Gillen's most prominent rival for the nomination, state Sen. Kevin Thomas, dropped out late last month. There's no indication any other serious Democrats will seek to join the primary, leaving Gillen with a clear path to a rematch against freshman Republican Rep. Anthony D'Esposito.
SC Redistricting: A federal district court said on Thursday that South Carolina could hold elections this year using its current congressional map despite ruling more than a year ago that the map unconstitutionally discriminated against Black voters.
In the interim, the Republican officials defending the state appealed to the Supreme Court, which heard oral arguments in October. The lower court said it would not impose a remedial map while an appeal was pending, saying there was only an "outside chance" that the matter would not be resolved in time.
But the Supreme Court's inexplicable five-and-a-half-month delay, which election law expert Rick Hasen called "inexcusable," turned that outside chance into reality. As a result, Republicans will be able to defend the existing version of the 1st District even though the lower court said that they had "exiled over 30,000 African American citizens" from the district, a move that helped ensure the seat would stay solidly red.
AL-02: Impact Research finds former U.S. Department of Justice official Shomari Figures leading state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels 59-24 in the first poll we've seen of the April 16 Democratic primary runoff. Impact tells Daily Kos Elections the poll was not conducted for Figures but declined to divulge its client.
Figures also earned an endorsement Wednesday from state Rep. Napoleon Bracy, who finished in third place in the first round on March 5. Figures, who benefited from heavy spending from a super PAC with ties to the cryptocurrency industry, led with 43%, while Daniels beat out Bracy 22-16 for the second runoff spot. So far, the FEC has not recorded any notable outside spending ahead of the runoff for what's now a 56-43 Biden seat.
NC Redistricting: North Carolina's new Republican-drawn Senate map will remain in use this year after a federal appeals court upheld a lower court's decision not to block the maps on the grounds that they discriminated against Black voters. Further appeals remain possible, however.
ME-02: Donald Trump has endorsed state Rep. Austin Theriault, a former NASCAR driver who was already a favorite candidate of national Republicans, ahead of the June 11 primary to take on Democratic Rep. Jared Golden.
Theriault, who picked up Speaker Mike Johnson's support in January, faces fellow state Rep. Mike Soboleski for the GOP nomination. Soboleski struggled to raise money during 2023, though we'll learn by April 15 if the first quarter of 2024 went any better for him.
MI-08: State Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet has earned the support of the state AFL-CIO for the August primary to replace retiring Rep. Dan Kildee, a fellow Democrat.
WI State Assembly: Far-right activists seeking to recall Assembly Speaker Robin Vos announced Thursday that they were launching a new signature collection campaign even as they said they were still hoping they had turned in enough signatures earlier this month to force a vote.
The Wisconsin Elections Commission's initial review found that they'd failed to do so in the district that the Republican speaker was last elected to represent, though the bipartisan body has asked the state Supreme Court to clarify whether a recall would be conducted under the old or new district lines.
MD-02, MD-03, MD-06: The Maryland State Education Association, which has long been an important player in state politics, has endorsed a trio of House candidates campaigning for open seats ahead of the May 14 Democratic primaries. The union is pulling for Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski in the 2nd District, state Sen. Sarah Elfreth in the 3rd, and Del. Joe Vogel in the 6th.
Olszewski is the heavy favorite to win the nomination to replace retiring Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger, who is also supporting his campaign. Elfreth and Vogel, however, are both competing in busy and unpredictable nomination contests.
NV Ballot: AdImpact reports that Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom has reserved at least $10.8 million in fall ad time to support a ballot measure to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution. The group is collecting signatures to protect the procedure through fetal viability, which is usually 22 to 24 weeks into a pregnancy. However, it's also hoping that the Nevada Supreme Court will reverse a lower court decision that's currently preventing a more expansive incarnation of the amendment from moving forward.
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