Dan Pfeiffer: "Not sure what else to say. Joe Biden was bad."
"The President wanted this debate on this timeline. It was a high risk move. Given the dynamics of the race, I thought it was the right risk to take. But Biden didn't deliver. He looked and sounded old. He mixed up his words and misstated his own policies. The split screen was very hard for Biden, who often seemed like he was staring off into space as opposed to looking at the camera."
"President Biden could not clearly defend his record or prosecute the very obvious case against Trump. Yes, Trump lied incessantly with little to no pushback. Debating a shameless liar is a difficult feat, but Biden didn't meet the very low expectations set by Trump and the Right Wing media."
"Biden got better towards the end, but the first 20 minutes of the debate are exponentially more important than the next 70."
Wall Street Journal: "The panic was widespread, they said, but there was little consensus on a plan forward. Some tried to game out scenarios that could lead to a change at the top of the ticket, like high-ranking party officials publicly calling for Biden to step aside. Others said they felt a sense of resignation, knowing only a handful of people close to the president had the power to do anything."
"One Biden ally said he had to turn off the TV several times. Another said Biden's performance made even Trump, 78, who repeated falsehoods throughout the 90-minute event, look like a statesman. Some also expressed concerns about the effect the debate would have on Biden's fundraising at a time when Trump is poised to wipe out the president's financial advantage."
"President Biden brushed off Democrats' complaints about his performance at the debate with former President Donald Trump and indicated that he had no plans to rethink his candidacy," the New York Times reports.
Asked about Democrats' concerns about his showing and calls for him to consider dropping out of the race, he said: "No. It's hard to debate a liar."
David Kurtz: "Biden's right-wing foes have been spinning out cheap fakes for weeks, selectively editing videos to cast him in the most decrepit, senile light possible."
"Last night, Biden embodied those videos, breathing life into them in a way that confirmed the worst attacks of his detractors and left his supporters in something approaching shock."
New York Times: "Major Democratic donors spent Thursday night into Friday morning exchanging nervous texts, emojis and GIFs. Some members of the national finance committee were in Atlanta to see Biden up close, and shared privately that it was a somber night. But few of the Biden bundlers could conjure up concrete plans on how to move forward."
Rick Hasen: "Assuming Biden voluntarily withdraws, there are two main election law questions: the rules of the convention, and the rules of ballot access. The rules of the convention are pretty simple in that delegates would be free to vote their consciences. (That would be true even if Biden stayed in the race.) Presumably, if Biden announced a withdrawal soon, a number of candidates would put their names in the ring. There might even be debates before the convention so that each of these people could be seen in prime time."
"We are also early in terms of ballot access. Most state rules for major party candidates point to the convention winner as the presidential candidate. There could be some timing glitches in some places which could lead to litigation. There could be questions if Biden is on the ticket about presidential electors who under state law would have to vote for the candidate they were listed for. But I think we are early enough that most of the kinks would be worked out early."
"So the bottom line is that there is unlikely to be an election law impediment to replacing Biden, should Biden choose to withdraw."
Nate Silver: "As our model launches, either Biden or Trump could easily win — but the odds are in the ex-president's favor."
He shows Trump currently with a 65.7% chance to win the presidential election, while Biden has a 33.7% chance.
Nate Silver: "Maybe Biden could survive by playing prevent defense — although the White House has been trying that and it hasn't been working — if he were leading. But instead he's behind. And once the polling fully accounts for the effects of the debate within a few weeks, he's likely to be as far behind as he's ever been, with less time left than he's ever had."
"How is the man you saw on stage tonight supposed to turn things around? Or even a 30 percent better version of the man you saw tonight? Sure, it's possible. But is that really the bet you want to make if you're a Democrat who thinks Trump is an existential threat to democracy and everything else?"
Brendan Buck: "If a debate cannot be won but only lost, Donald Trump may not have won on Thursday — but President Joe Biden certainly lost, and in spectacular fashion. The president gave one of the worst debate performances in recent memory."
Joe Klein: "It was worse than disastrous. It was sad, it was humiliating. Biden looked like a hospice patient who got lost on his way to the bathroom. That was probably the biggest thing: He looked and sounded awful. In past debates, Biden maintained eye contact with the camera when Trump spoke; he seemed focused and strong. This time, he rarely made eye contact; he looked down, mouth slack. He gave the impression of a very old man. His voice was weak, his answers garbled and incomprehensible—certainly to anyone who doesn't spend their life following politics. If he had effective moments, and there might have been a few, they were lost in the overall horror."
"Trump was Trump. A lying, petulant charlatan. But that won't make much difference. He didn't even need to point out how frail Biden seemed—although at one point, he said, 'I don't understand what he just said.' Neither did I, neither did anyone. Trump understood that he didn't need to ridicule the geezer—indeed, it would have seemed cruel, even for Trump. He just stuck to calling Biden a terrible President; Biden was on the ropes from the first minute, unable to defend himself. Someone should have stopped the fight."
Walter Shapiro: "More than a half century after he was elected to the Senate and in the midst of his fourth presidential race, Joe Biden should spend the weekend facing up to the biggest decision of his political career."
"After an uninspiring, wavering, hoarse-voiced debate performance in which he constantly failed to halt Donald Trump's torrent of lies, it is time for Biden to face up to the reality of his 81 years. The president, away from his aides and enablers, should ask himself the blunt question: 'Can I save American democracy by beating Trump?'"
"Judging from his performance in the historically early debate that Biden sought, the answer, sadly, is 'no.' In the most important moment in the campaign, Biden came across as old and weak. These images are so much more telling than the fact that that Trump couldn't complete a sentence without telling at least three bold-faced lies."
Playbook: "The mass panic among Democrats began last night about 12 minutes into the debate."
"President Joe Biden was answering a question about the national debt. He confused trillionaires and billionaires but corrected himself quickly. He stumbled over millions and billions but again fixed it. Then he started to tick off the things he could pay for with his tax plan: paying down the debt, child care, elder care, strengthening the health care system."
"Then something went wrong."
"As he reached for a final example, he lost his train of thought, stumbled around and then just paused while staring at the floor. When he popped his head up, it seemed like he had recovered his thought. Instead, he blurted out this nonsensical line: 'We finally beat Medicare!'"
Here is how "one of the most seasoned political pros" in Democratic politics framed the more likely way forward to Politico:
"First, it was a pretty shocking performance by Biden, obviously. And any thoughtful person has to ask themself: Should this man be leader of the free world for another 7 months, let alone 55?"
"But he's not going to step aside and there is no clear process for replacing him. So we'll have a few days of frenzy. Then everyone will realize the main contours of the race haven't really changed. We'll all get back in our corners, with R's watching Biden drool on continuous loop and D's claiming that Trump's outrageous statements were the real travesty."
Al Hunt: "Joe Biden lost a presidential debate, rather than assuaging voters' fears about his age and capabilities only reaffirmed them."
"Biden was halting, encumbered by a raspy voice, and at times seemingly confused or losing his train of thought. The picture of the President standing there mouth open, eyes darting was devastating for the 81-year-old incumbent. Trump is only three years younger; the difference seemed more like decades."
"On substance, Trump ran roughshod, confident, full of specifics, viciously attacking Biden at every opportunity. Biden, with the exception of assailing the former President for inciting the January 6 attack on the Capitol in an effort to overturn a legitimate election, missed opportunity after opportunity to clearly counter his opponent. He was either poorly prepared or just not up to the challenge."
Heather Cox Richardson: "This was not a debate. It was Trump using a technique that actually has a formal name, the Gish gallop, although I suspect he comes by it naturally. It's a rhetorical technique in which someone throws out a fast string of lies, non-sequiturs, and specious arguments, so many that it is impossible to fact-check or rebut them in the amount of time it took to say them. Trying to figure out how to respond makes the opponent look confused, because they don't know where to start grappling with the flood that has just hit them."
"It is a form of gaslighting, and it is especially effective on someone with a stutter, as Biden has. It is similar to what Trump did to Biden during a debate in 2020. In that case, though, the lack of muting on the mics left Biden simply saying: "Will you shut up, man?" a comment that resonated with the audience. Giving Biden the enforced space to answer by killing the mic of the person not speaking tonight actually made the technique more effective."
Seth Masket: "Now, there's a longstanding norm that presidential debate moderators aren't supposed to do fact-checking in real time. This is something Candy Crowley got in trouble for back in 2012. And there's some good reason for that — it's not a very useful debate if a candidate is just arguing with a moderator about whether an event happened or not."
"But the lack of fact-checking was probably more problematic tonight. Even a very skilled public speaker would have had a very hard time refuting all of Trump's false statements and still getting in some points of his own. And Biden wasn't that kind of speaker."
"Robert F. Kennedy Jr., won't be with his better-known rivals, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, when they debate Thursday in Atlanta," the AP reports.
"And aside from a livestreamed response to the debate, he also has nothing on his public schedule for the coming weeks. Nor does his running mate, philanthropist Nicole Shanahan."
"After a busy spring hopscotching the country for a mix of political rallies, fundraisers and nontraditional campaign events, Kennedy appears to be taking a breather."
Politico has an interactive ballot access tracker to follow the progress of four key third party or independent presidential candidates: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornell West, Chase Oliver and Jill Stein.
"Tuesday was a rough primary night for Donald Trump — and he wasn't even on the ballot," Politico reports.
"The former president endorsed a replacement for Sen. Mitt Romney, but Utah voters picked a Trump skeptic instead. He backed his spiritual adviser for an open South Carolina House seat only to watch him narrowly lose in a runoff. Trump threw his support to the Colorado GOP chair for a House district; he was blown out by more than 30 points."
"There are zero Fortune 100 CEOs — a group that historically leans Republican — that have donated to former President Trump this election cycle," Axios reports.
"Donald Trump could announce his vice presidential pick as early as this week, possibly ahead of Thursday's debate," NBC News reports.
"Trump has said publicly that he intends to announce his pick shortly before, or at, the Republican convention next month."
"But there have been high-level discussions in recent days within the Trump campaign about moving that timeline up and making a splash sooner."
Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) endorsed President Biden on Wednesday, "giving the Democrat a prominent new ally in his high-stakes campaign to win over moderate Republicans and independents this fall," the AP reports.
Kinzinger described Donald Trump as "a direct threat to every fundamental American value" in a video announcing the Biden endorsement.
The National Republican Congressional Committee finally joined its peers when it announced its first batch of fall TV ad reservations on Tuesday, making it the last of the four largest outside groups involved in House races to do so.
The NRCC's bookings total $42.2 million across 29 different media markets, which the committee says is intended to target 22 districts. As is typical for such announcements, though, the NRCC largely did not identify specific races.
In addition, a press release said the committee was reserving $45.7 million overall, though adding up the provided market-by-market figure only gets you to that lower $42.2 million number. (It's possible the difference is intended for digital advertising, which is reserved differently.)
To help match markets to districts, we've added this latest batch of reservations to our continually updated tracker. All told, Republicans (including the NRCC and the Congressional Leadership Fund) have booked $183 million so far, while Democrats (that is, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the House Majority PAC) have reserved $163 million in TV time.
But the GOP's planned spending is more narrowly concentrated and skips over some major markets where Democrats are investing heavily, most notably Las Vegas, Boston, and Washington, DC. While groups like these can and always do add additional reservations later in the cycle, the omission of Las Vegas is particularly striking.
That's because airtime in Nevada will grow increasingly expensive and scarce, with hotly contested races for the White House and the Senate crowding out media buyers seeking to play in Vegas' three competitive House districts. It's unlikely Republicans are writing off these contests, but the longer they wait to get involved, the shorter their dollars will stretch.
"Republicans have quietly formed a new super PAC that is preparing what appears to be a significant push to persuade former President Donald Trump's voters to vote early or by absentee ballot," the New York Times reports.
"The group, America PAC, was created last month and remains fairly secretive. But over the last two weeks, it has spent $6.6 million on behalf of Mr. Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, according to public filings, vaulting it suddenly into the top tier of pro-Trump outside groups in the general election."
"Last year, the five self-proclaimed 'Sister Senators' from South Carolina were awarded the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award after they joined together across party lines to block the legislature from passing a near-total abortion ban," the New York Times reports.
"But a prize from the nation's most storied Democratic family may not be the best calling card in Republican primaries in the red-state South."
"All three of the Republican women in the group of five — the others were a Democrat and an independent — faced primary challenges, and all three have now lost."
POLLING:
- MT-Sen: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for the Montana Republican Party: Jon Tester (D-inc): 46, Tim Sheehy (R): 46, Sid Daoud (L): 2, Michael Downey (G): 2 (57-37 Trump in two-way)
- MT-Gov: Public Opinion Strategies (R): Greg Gianforte (R-inc): 54, Ryan Busse (D): 33
- MT-Sen: Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) for More Jobs, Less Government (pro-Sheehy): Tim Sheehy (R): 46, Jon Tester (D-inc): 43, Sid Daoud (L): 4 (54-36 Trump in two-way)
- WI-Sen: Marquette Law School: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 52, Eric Hovde (R): 47 (51-49 Biden in two-way, 44-42 Trump with third-party candidates) (April: 50-50 Senate tie)
- NV-Sen: Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) for the AARP: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 47, Sam Brown (R): 42 (48-45 Trump in two-way, Trump 44-37 with third-party candidates)
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