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Monday, 1 July 2024

The First Debate Jinx

I hadn't planned to write anything about the June swoon debate because Cassandra and Jamie nailed it. I stand by everything I wrote in Why I Hate Presidential Debates. I still don't think these joint appearances matter as much as the media does, but …
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The First Debate Jinx

By Peter Adrastos Athas on July 1, 2024

I hadn't planned to write anything about the June swoon debate because Cassandra and Jamie nailed it. I stand by everything I wrote in Why I Hate Presidential Debates. I still don't think these joint appearances matter as much as the media does, but felt compelled to say something about past poor debate performances and panics.

In his typically thorough manner, Jamie pointed out that Bush the younger and Obama had bad first debates but went on to win. In fact, John Kerry mopped the floor with Dubya in all three debates but lost the election. I'm not superstitious. I don't usually believe in jinxes, but there's something about first debates that flummoxes incumbents running for reelection.

If you thought Bush, Obama, and Biden were bad, Ronald Reagan's performance in the first 1984 debate is the stuff of legend. We now know it may have been the first public manifestation of Alzheimer's but at the time, it was just viewed as a bad performance. Nancy Reagan maintained that her husband had been over prepared by his staff. That was clearly a factor in Biden's bad showing last week.

Reagan bounced back in the second debate with this quip:

Fritz Mondale was not only a good man, he was a good sport. He couldn't help laughing even though he was crying inside. He knew it was over at that moment.

In 2012, Barack Obama initially didn't think he'd bombed his first debate with Willard Mittbot Romney, he had to be informed by his top aides that he'd laid an egg. A joint appearance between the Veep candidates was next and Joe Biden kicked Paul Ryan's ass. The Obama-Biden ticket won again thanks in part to Biden's strong debate performance.

In a great day after piece Lawrence O'Donnell reminded viewers that Democrats panicked in 1992 when Bill Clinton ran third in a national horse race poll after clinching the nomination. He won that election thereby proving a point made by Mr. Spock:

Neither does panicking.

I'm not going to deny being rattled by Biden's poor performance. I was, however, disgusted by all the anonymous quotes about how Biden needs to quit the race. Hiding behind Axios, Politico, and the NYT is cowardly. If they think Biden should withdraw, they should go on the record or shut the fuck up. Bedwetting is never attractive.

The best thing I've seen written about the debate came from former Bushie David Frum:

Everything about the event was designed to blur the choice before Americans. Both candidates—the serving president and the convicted felon—were addressed as "President." The questions treated an attempted coup d'état as one issue out of many. The candidates were left to police or fail to police the truth of each other's statements; it was nobody else's business."

Frum was the only sensible writer at the Atlantic, the rest freaked out and demanded something that is not going to happen. The proverbial bed was soaked at the New York Times as well. There will be no open convention.

The only way replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee would be legitimate is if he voluntarily stepped aside in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris. Forcing him out would be tantamount to a coup, which Americans should take a dim view of after the Dipshit Insurrection. Of course, the white boys calling for Biden's head are not Harris fans. They're looking for the perfect candidate. They do not exist.

The steady stream of lies spouted by the Convicted Insult Comedian has been overlooked again as was his relentless pandering to right-wing extremists. He's no more fit for office because he "won" the so called debate than he was before this dubious victory. Early indications are that voters get this. Few minds were changed last week except among the pundits. They should change their underwear while they're at it.

Repeat after me: Debates have nothing to do with the job of being president. Presidents are surrounded by aides who look things up for them. They don't have to come up with snappy two-minute answers. The job involves making decisions, not looking quick witted on teevee.

Donald Trump is still the worst president in American history and utterly unfit to return to the Oval House. On his worst day, Joe Biden is a better man than Trump on his best day.

The absolute immunity opinion is supposed to be released this morning. I'll be back with my instant analysis. It's not easy to be optimistic given how many bad decisions have come down this term. Stay tuned.

The last word goes to Howlin' Wolf followed by the Jeff Beck Group:

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