Quite a head scratcher the latest SBP/Red C poll. As noted in comments at the weekend it showed an interesting divergence from previous polls. As RTÉ reported:
Sinn Féin's support has dropped by four points, after more than a year of strong polling results.
The survey also suggests that Fine Gael has increased its support by three points and is significantly ahead of Fianna Fáil which lies in third place.
The poll puts Sinn Féin on 31%, down four, but Fine Gael on 24%, which is up three.
Fianna Fáil is down one at 15% support.
As Paul Cullotty noted in comments, implausible - surely, that the transfer of support was between SF and FG. But consider the situation of other parties.
Green Party support is up marginally to 5% - up one.
Both Labour Party and the Social Democrats are unchanged at 4%.
People Before Profit / Solidarity is unchanged at 3%, while Aontú is up one at 2%.
Independents are unchanged at 11%.
Bear in mind the MOE is 3%.
What did the SBP itself have to make of this? Richard Colwell of RedC argues that:
In recent weeks however, press for Sinn Féin has turned more forensic and perhaps more negative. The links between the party and Jonathan Dowdall, charged for his part in the gangland murder of David Byrne at the Regency Hotel, are constantly in the news at present.
This more negative period of press coverage for the party has dampened Sinn Féin's first-preference support. After a record high of 36 per cent in early summer 2022, the autumn saw the party drop back slightly and today support has fallen again to 31 per cent of the vote. While this is a drop of five percentage points in just two months, Sinn Féin does remain the most supported party by some distance. However, it does also suggest that the exceptionally high levels seen in recent months may not be sustainable in the run-up to the election.
It seems a bit soon for such a dynamic to take effect. The reports on the trial really came to the fore just before the weekend. But perhaps there's a broader mood music playing in. Not least the budget which has seemed to on some fronts, though notably not housing, taken some of the heat of the government. Interestingly Colwell argues that there's no beneficiary of the falling SF support - it's going to the undecideds. Oddly he notes that FG's rise might be a result of 'having benefited from its hardened stance about going into government with Sinn Féin in recent weeks and heavy coverage during the poll of its Ard Fheis.' But surely that's implausible too - since the falls are in SF and FG is unlikely to pick up voters from that quarter. More likely is a settling across the parties with some votes going back to FG and some leaving SF. We can, I think, disregard both Aontú and the GP's increases.
All that said, and it's been stated here for quite some time, even SF's very high ratings hitherto do not mean that it is set to lead the next government. And any support it loses in advance of the election has significant implications on government formation both for it and for other parties. So then, the future is clear as mud. As usual.
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