Hot on the heels of the Irish Times poll last week comes this from RedC/Sunday Business Post.
Sinn Féin at 31%, down 2%.
Fine Gael is unchanged at 21%, while Fianna Fáil is up 2% at 17%.
Support for Independents is up 2% to 13%, while the Green Party remains unchanged at 4%.
The Social Democrats have dropped 2% to 4% while Labour is unchanged at 4%.
People Before Profit - Solidarity remains at 3% while support for Aontú is unchanged at 2% and others remain at 1%.
The margin of error is plus or minus 3%.
Note all movement is within the margin of error, which is not to say that the poll doesn't point to various dynamics.
Sinn Féin does appear to have been falling back in many polls, though interestingly not the IT one last week. And that uptick for Independents was reflected in that other poll too.
Michael Brennan in the SBP notes:
Sinn Féin continues to dominate the political landscape, but has slipped back slightly from 33 per cent in February last year to 31 per cent now. Fine Gael records the same level of support as a year ago (21 per cent), while Fianna Fáil is up from 15 per cent then to 17 per cent now.
And:
Sinn Féin is no longer able to say that it is attracting more support than Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil collectively, as those parties are on a combined 38 percentage points in this poll. Fianna Fáil may have won back some voters who had switched to Sinn Féin, and the same can be said for Independents.
Though that assertion by SF is contingent on what poll one looks at.
What is boosting Independents at the moment? And what would a Dáil based on these figures look like? Then again we still don't know what the new Dáil will look like.
In this period of relative political calm, many TDs are awaiting the results of the first ever review of the Dáil constituency boundaries by the newly-formed Electoral Commission. It will have the power to increase the number of Dáil seats from 160 now to as many as 180 to keep in line with the constitutional rule of no less than one TD for every 30,000 people.
The commission is taking submissions from parties and members of the public until May 10, and is expected to report on the summer. The outcome will be much more important to TDs than their party's support level in this latest RedC poll.
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