I was curious what one G. Howlin in the IT would write about Dáil expansion - that is the increase in numbers of TDs off the back of increased population. He writes:
We will have between 11 and 21 more TDs when the new electoral commission reports, likely before summer. The Constitution prescribes one Dáil seat for every 20,000-30,000 of population, and we are over the upper limit with 32,000 per seat now. The increase in seat numbers is automatic and exponential. If 11 extra seats are required at a minimum, it is unlikely the commission will take a minimalist approach. It may deploy further additional seats to future proof its new constituency map.
Almost needless to say he sees this as a bad thing. So bad in fact that he argues:
Of 160 TDs elected in 2020, 48 were new. In 2016 that number was 52, in 2011 it was 76. It is a pace of furious political change now mixing in with rapid expansion of the national parliament. The year 1937, when the Constitution was written, was a period of population decline. So was the next half century. We need a referendum to turn off the tap before our cup overfloweth. Whatever is wrong, it is not because our parliament is too small. The party in the next election that promises a referendum to cap the size of the Dáil could have a popular proposal.
I'm always fascinated by the argument that we need less democracy, not more. Perhaps the parliament isn't too small, and who argues any of the current crises on its size - but then again seeing how issues have apparently managed to be missed by the government over the last while a few more voices might not go amiss. He notes that:
The report of the Electoral Commission will be an all-you-can-eat buffet for political anoraks. But the underlying trend of massive increases in Dáil numbers has escaped discussion. We already have a high ratio of national parliamentarians by international standards. The multiseat constituency combined with weak local government means we expect our TDs to have a strong local presence. Diligence is ever-less a guarantee of survival, however. The tide is coming in higher and faster.
But that being the case - that local government is weak, one might think that before changing the situation in the Dáil something might be done to address local government. The reality is that national government doesn't wish to do so, and since that isn't going to change any time soon then how does one address a democratic deficit, because after all there is a relationship between population numbers and numbers of representatives - that's explicit in the Constitution, other than ensuring there are more parliamentarians to take up that slack. As to diligence and survival, well that's irrelevant.
And it's irrelevant in another way too. Given it would require a referendum to alter this, or place a cap (though think that through too, it's not implausible we might have a number of extra millions sooner rather than later - is he genuinely unexercised by that democratic deficit?), there's going to be more TDs before there are less, or the same number since the status quo ante prior to any referendum will likely persist.
As to the likely shape of the new larger Dáil on foot of the upcoming changes he has no predictions at all. Incumbents may 'hold on'. Or 'momentum' may sweep SF to power. Well yeah, but what sort of Dáil does he think is likely? He doesn't say.
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