Bank holiday weekend so this wasn't posted up yesterday.
Meanwhile, the state of the parties is: Sinn Féin is unchanged at 31per cent. Fine Gael is unchanged on 22 per cent of the first preference vote in this Red C poll. Fianna Fáil, which has been defending the position of Niall Collins, the Minister of State, after a council land sale controversy, is up by one point to 16 per cent. Independents, who took varying positions on ending the eviction ban, are unchanged on 12 per cent.
The Green Party is up by one percentage point to 4 per cent, while the Social Democrats are down by one point to 5 per cent. Labour is unchanged at 4 per cent while People Before Profit-Solidarity are down by one point to 2 per cent, and Aontú is unchanged on 2 per cent.
Oddly, or not RTÉ, is arguing from the rather minimal movements some rather contrived conclusions.
Support for the three Government parties has increased marginally, despite the controversial decision to end the ban on evictions, the latest poll by Red C for the Business Post suggests.
And:
Meanwhile Sinn Féin, which has also had to defend itself after the conclusion of the Regency trail, which heard evidence from its former councillor and convicted criminal Jonathan Dowdall, has seen its support remain level at 31%.
Tend to find that weighting on 1% changes or no percent changes implausible.
Mind you, what to make of this:
Almost half of people polled said they believe Mary Lou McDonald's statement that she would not have allowed Dowdall to be a councillor for the party if she knew he was involved in criminality.
Around 45% of people said they believe the Sinn Féin leader, with some 37% saying they did not believe her, while 19% said that they did not know.
Ms McDonald and Sinn Fein have strenuously denied evidence heard during the trial, including that Mr Hutch had donated money to the party - calling the claims "false and deeply offensive".
She's not wrong. But a moment's logical thought would suggest that the last thing McDonald would want is for a prospective Sinn Féin candidate to have an involvement in criminality. But that dynamic where people are willing to believe that she would be, some 37%, or at least to say that they believe it, is a problem for Sinn Féin. Expect Dowdall to be mentioned time and again in the next year or two.
Another area of interest is the finding on the housing crisis. The SBP itself notes:
Just around one third of voters believe that Sinn Féin can solve the housing crisis if it gets into power after the next election, according to the latest Business Post/Red C poll.
The poll shows that just 36 per cent of people believe that Sinn Féin in government can solve the housing crisis, in a major blow to the party.
A far larger share of voters – 46 per cent – do not believe that Sinn Féin can solve the housing crisis, while 17 per cent do not know.
I don't find that hugely surprising. After all combine FF/FG and you're at 38%. Throw in the GP support and you're over 40% and then there's no end of others who have mixed views on Sinn Féin. Perhaps more telling is that belief in SF's ability to 'solve' the crisis is larger than their actual support. In any event, I think emphasising 'solving' the crisis is not the key issue. Mitigating it significantly would be both more realistic (indeed if SF do anything much more than what the current Government are doing that would be something in itself) and a more interesting question to ask of voters.
For all that, as the SBP notes:
Almost half of all voters believe that McDonald can do a good job if she becomes the next Taoiseach, in a sign that she remains the party's biggest electoral asset.
Two other thoughts:
The Red C poll found that 43 per cent of people would not trust a Sinn Féin justice minister to tackle gangland crime and subversive activity. Around 41 per cent of people said they would trust a Sinn Féin justice minister to do this, while 16 per cent said they did not know.
Precisely what subversive activity? That would be useful were it parsed out. As to gangland crime. Hardly in Sinn Féin's interest not to be as hardline on that as is possible. In any event in the case of a coalition I'd put good money on the other party holding the positive of Justice Minister.
And look at the Independent's vote. Still holding up.
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