A Sinn Féin seat in Dublin-Rathdown – there's a sentence you don't read every day.

WorldbyStorm

Sep 1

Before the Commission report Pat Leahy in the IT offered a run-down of how constituencies might fare:

The three seater-constituency of Dublin-Rathdown – where all the TDs are Ministers and all are nervous of losing their seat to a Sinn Féin challenger – could gain an extra seat, though this would likely require a transfer of some areas from Dún Laoghaire. Alternatively, Dún Laoghaire could be enlarged to a five-seater from four currently.

Almost needless to say that sent me straight to the wiki page for Dublin-Rathdown. There are indeed three Ministers in situ, the Green Party's Catherine Martin, Fine Gael's Neale Richmond and the same party's Josepha Madigan.

Fianna Fáil's Shay Brennan won 10.7% of the FPV at the last election, but Sinn Féin's Sorcha Nic Cormaic (by the way, I'd forgotten Shane Ross contested that election - he won 8.1% FPV but wasn't in contention at all during the counts. By the by, Nic Cormaic had added almost 5% to the SF FPV between 2016 and 2020. Impressive.) was on 11.6%.

So, how did it go once the report was unveiled? The Irish Times argues that:

Salvation for the Ministers. Previously a three-seat constituency where the three incumbents – Fine Gael's Neale Richmond and Josepha Madigan, and Green Catherine Martin – are all members of the Government parties and all Ministers to boot. This was due to be the group of death. It'll still be tight, but the addition of an extra seat will ease the pressure. The addition of Foxrock, Leopardstown and Glencullen, all largely affluent suburbs, will be especially welcomed by the Fine Gael Ministers. While the constituency is hardly natural territory for Sinn Féin, the party will expect a seat in every constituency, including here. Previously a Fianna Fáil stronghold, those days are long gone.

Isn't that lucky for the incumbents.

Still. A very very possible SF gain. In Dublin-Rathdown. The sky has fallen. Good.