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Tuesday, 30 January 2024

The Political Report – January 30, 2024

Site logo image Delaware Dem posted: " New York Times: "He promised to repeal the Affordable Care Act. He demanded states deploy the National Guard to the U.S.-Mexico border. He warned congressional Republicans to hold out for a perfect deal on immigration — or else." "Former President Don" Blue Delaware Read on blog or Reader

The Political Report – January 30, 2024

Delaware Dem

January 30

New York Times: "He promised to repeal the Affordable Care Act. He demanded states deploy the National Guard to the U.S.-Mexico border. He warned congressional Republicans to hold out for a perfect deal on immigration — or else."

"Former President Donald Trump has not even clinched the Republican presidential nomination, but he has wasted no time issuing directives as if he were making them from the Oval Office instead of between appearances in a New York courtroom."

"And now, President Biden has been forced to ponder a campaign question that no president has ever had to consider: How do you run against a man who has already had the job, never conceded his election loss and is already acting like he has the job again?"

Washington Post: On Trump-Biden rematch, many senators say bring it on.

Polls show Joe Biden is quite unpopular. But misleading job approval numbers, an improving economy, and a potentially criminal opponent in Donald Trump mean his odds in November may be better than you think. https://t.co/EcPCEDOr4y

— New York Magazine (@NYMag) January 28, 2024


"President Biden and Donald Trump are on track to be the oldest pair of presidential nominees in U.S. history. They also are staring at what could become the longest general-election campaign ever," the Wall Street Journal reports.

"If Trump locks up the Republican nomination soon, the two men will face a marathon one-on-one race to the Nov. 5 general election. Such an endurance test threatens to bring headaches for both candidates and their campaign staffers—and for voters who have said they dread a rematch of the 2020 race."

Democrats' not-so-secret weapon in House races: Donald Trump https://t.co/V08SWcovIW

— POLITICO (@politico) January 27, 2024

PENNSYLVANIA 17TH DISTRICT. Jeremy Shaffer, who was the GOP's 2022 nominee for this seat, announced this week that he would run for the state House rather than seek a rematch against freshman Democratic Rep. Chris Deluzio. The person Shaffer wants to replace in the legislature, state Rep. Rob Mercuri, is already running against Deluzio and faces no serious opposition in the Republican primary.

WISCONSIN 3RD DISTRICT. Former La Crosse County Board chair Tara Johnson announced last week that she was ending her campaign to take on Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden, a move she says reflected her concerns that a crowded Aug. 13 Democratic primary would divert resources from the general election. Two notable Democrats remain in the race, state Rep. Katrina Shankland and businesswoman Rebecca Cooke.

Ex-con coal baron Don Blankenship, who called himself 'Trumpier than Trump,' is running for the U.S. Senate as a Democrat. He's still full of rage at Joe Manchin and Mitch McConnell, but his new party wants nothing to do with him. https://t.co/LmNpaCPQeu

— New York Magazine (@NYMag) January 27, 2024

WEST VIRGINIA U.S. SENATOR. Former Massey Energy CEO Don Blankenship has filled to run for U.S. Senate, WV News reports.  Blankenship, who billed himself as a "radical" Republican when he unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2018, is now a registered Democrat.

OREGON 5TH DISTRICT. Tech executive Matthew Davie has filed FEC paperwork to raise money to run as a Democrat against freshman Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, a Republican who is defending a constituency that Joe Biden carried 53-44. Davie does not appear to have announced yet that he'll join the May 21 primary. Davie, writes the Oregon Capital Chronicle, is a former executive at a microfinance company in San Francisco who bought a home in the 5th District in 2018. The story adds that he has not previously been active in local politics in the Bend area.

MARYLAND 2ND DISTRICT. Rep. C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-MD), who has been in Congress for 21 years and has held public office for nearly 40 years, ended months of speculation by announcing Friday that he won't seek a twelfth term, the Baltimore Sun reports.

The former chief of staff to Rep. Nancy Mace filed to run as a Republican primary challenger against his onetime boss. https://t.co/Y7k7Th517I

— Axios (@axios) January 26, 2024

OHIO 9TH DISTRICT. Speaker Mike Johnson has endorsed state Rep. Derek Merrin in the March 19 Republican primary to take on Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur. Politico reported late last year that Johnson waged a "heavy last-ditch recruitment effort" to enlist Merrin after the previous establishment favorite, former state Rep. Craig Riedel, self-immolated by daring to criticize Donald Trump. Merrin still needs to get past Riedel, Napoleon Mayor Steve Lankenau, and J.R. Majewski, the party's disastrous 2022 nominee.

Representative Lauren Boebert did not receive the warm welcome she was hoping for after switching Colorado districts, with her rivals accusing her of being a "carpetbagger" during the first primary debate. https://t.co/gGHClqDFz0

— The New Republic (@newrepublic) January 26, 2024

CALIFORNIA 47TH DISTRICT. Activist Joanna Weiss is airing the first negative ad of the March 5 top-two primary, highlighting state Sen. Dave Min's May drunk driving arrest. The narrator begins, though, by arguing that Min, who like Weiss is a Democrat, "broke his no-corporate money promise."

Only then does the spot show dashcam footage of Min swaying back and forth as he talks to a police officer, with the narrator saying he "drove drunk, lied to the police, and endangered innocent lives." The rest of the ad is devoted to saying that Weiss can be relied on to stand up for progressive values. Both candidates are competing to succeed Senate candidate Katie Porter, who supports Min, in this competitive Orange County constituency.

Rep. Lauren Boebert defended her mountains-to-plains shift in congressional districts, even as Republican rivals used the contest's first debate Thursday night to suggest she is a carpetbagger and hypocrite.https://t.co/1F5BCFR8h3

— Axios (@axios) January 26, 2024

NORTH CAROLINA 6TH DISTRICT. The Raleigh News & Observer's Under the Dome newsletter reports that the radical anti-tax Club for Growth has launched an opening $370,000 ad buy against former GOP Rep. Mark Walker, a development that comes the same week it endorsed his intra-party rival Bo Hines in the March 5 primary.

The spot begins by trashing Walker's failed 2022 Senate bid and abortive 2024 gubernatorial campaign, with the narrator continuing, "Now, Walker's begging for his old job. The job he didn't do." The ad goes after the former congressman for missing votes and then wanting to return to the House, then dismisses Walker as "a panhandler in pinstripes." It does not mention Hines or Donald Trump's endorsed candidate, lobbyist Addison McDowell.

How New Jersey's unique ballots and Joe Biden could sway the Senate primary https://t.co/GrPn3LkgBY

— POLITICO (@politico) January 28, 2024

NEBRASKA 1ST DISTRICT. State Sen. Carol Blood, who was the Democrats' nominee for governor in 2022, announced this week that she would take on GOP Rep. Mike Flood in a constituency that includes Lincoln and rural eastern Nebraska. Donald Trump carried the district 54-43, while analyst Drew Savicki says that Blood lost it 56-41 when she squared off against now-Gov. Jim Pillen in 2022.

Flood won this seat in a June 2022 special election by outpacing another Democratic member of Nebraska's unique unicameral legislature, Patty Pansing Brooks, by a surprisingly modest 53-47 margin. (Bizarrely, the special was held under the district lines drawn after the 2020 census even though the winner would fill out the remainder of the term that scandal-ridden Rep. Jeff Fortenberry had won under the old map.) Flood, though, won a rematch with Pansing Brooks by a convincing 58-42 spread that November.

VIRGINIA 5TH DISTRICT. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) endorsed a challenger running against her old House Freedom Caucus friend Rep. Bob Good (R-VA) who she called an "angry, disloyal and MAGA traitor" for backing Ron DeSantis in the GOP presidential primary.

Biden campaign holds Michigan meetings amid voter anger over Middle East https://t.co/efYV2YiyIE

— POLITICO (@politico) January 26, 2024

CALIFORNIA 20TH DISTRICT. Secretary of State Shirley Weber has asked a California appeals court to direct a lower court to vacate its ruling allowing Assemblyman Vince Fong to simultaneously run for both the legislature and Congress. Weber, a Democrat, specifically requested the court issue an order by April 12, the date on which she says she will certify the results of the March 5 top-two primary.

Weber previously appealed the lower court decision that allowed Fong, a Republican, to run for reelection to the Assembly and to seek the seat in Congress left open by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy at the same time. However, Weber says that there is insufficient time for the normal appeals process to play out.

Weber has argued that longstanding precedent prohibits Fong from running for both posts. "For 110 years," she wrote in her submission to the appeals court, "it has been understood in California that candidates for office can only run for one office at a time."

The economy is improving, and so are the vibes: Consumer sentiment surged over the past two months. And yet, Biden's approval rating remains historically low, and Trump is leading him comfortably in the polls.

Wrote up some possible reasons for that:https://t.co/HftV5eDHqu

— Eric Levitz (@EricLevitz) January 25, 2024

ARIZONA 1ST DISTRICT. Businessman Andrei Cherny, who is one of several prominent Democrats seeking to take on Republican Rep. David Schweikert, faces a federal investigation in connection with a financial services firm he co-founded in 2013, according to a new report from Bloomberg.

Cherny's company, Aspiration, sells instruments known as carbon offset credits that purport to allow businesses and consumers to mitigate the greenhouse gasses they're responsible for generating by supporting efforts such as reforestation. But, says Bloomberg, both the Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are looking into "whether Aspiration misled customers about the quality of carbon offsets it was selling."

Unnamed sources "familiar with the probe" say that investigators are "reviewing the actions" of the company's founders, including Cherny, who served as CEO for nearly a decade until stepping down in 2022. In a statement to Bloomberg, Cherny said, "I have no knowledge whatsoever of any wrongdoing at Aspiration and will fully cooperate with this inquiry."

Politics in 2024: Forget policy, it's all about the vibes! https://t.co/wAblNd8UdW

— Matt Lewis (@mattklewis) January 27, 2024

CALIFORNIA 22ND DISTRICT. Politico reported on Monday that the DCCC is worried about Democrats getting locked out of the top-two primary in California's 22nd District and has decided to get involved in the contest—a step it's taken to avert similar fears in other Golden State House races in the past.

The D-Trip is backing former Assemblyman Rudy Salas over state Sen. Melissa Hurtado, a fellow Democrat who is also hoping to unseat Republican Rep. David Valadao. AdImpact relays that the DCCC and Salas are spending at least $100,000 on a coordinated ad that highlights Salas' local roots and his efforts to increase the minimum wage, raise overtime pay for farmworkers, and protect abortion rights.

Salas lost to Valadao by 52-48 in 2022 in what was a tough year for California Democrats. But in addition to a rematch from Salas, Valadao also faces another challenge from the right in the form of former Fresno City Councilman Chris Mathys.

Last time, Valadao edged out Mathys just 26-23 in the top-two primary while Salas, the only Democrat who ran, took 45% (another Republican got 6%). With two Democrats running this time, however, there's a chance that Salas and Hurtado could split left-leaning voters evenly while Valadao and Mathys once again do the same with right-leaning voters.

An unlucky draw could see the Democrats finish third and fourth, leaving them with no candidate for the general election—a fate the DCCC must avoid at all costs. While the 22nd District voted 55-42 for Joe Biden, its primary electorate is often more favorable to Republicans, which helps explain why D.C. Democrats are working to boost Salas.

Major Koch network donor tells me about this weekend's Koch summit and Nikki Haley.

"It's kind of nuts that we're even supporting her at all. It feels like the guy has got it wrapped up. It felt like that several months ago."

Inside her big-money talks:https://t.co/2Ukl0wIijx

— Teddy Schleifer (@teddyschleifer) January 25, 2024

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