A valuable update to the earlier Statistics Canada study of 2019.
As someone who raised concerns over a declining naturalization rate since 2015, having these detailed studies confirming the trend with detailed breakdowns and analysis provides a basis to assess whether this simply reflects a global trend, given changing economic opportunities changing its value proposition, and/or, are there specific Canadian policies that had an impact (beyond the pandemic period).
There has always been a balance between the meaningfulness of citizenship, as seen through language and knowledge requirements, the Discover Canada study guide, the oath, and citizenship ceremonies, and facilitating citizenship through the same instruments (harder or easier language assessment, harder or easier citizenship test, a more or less rigorous citizenship study guide, in-person or virtual citizenship ceremonies).
The former Conservative government emphasized meaningfulness, the current Liberal government less so, as seen in its virtue signalling 2019 and 2021 election commitments to eliminate citizenship fees, its failure to issue a revised citizenship study guide announced four ministers ago, its proposal to allow self-affirmation of the citizenship oath ("on a click") and the less meaningful virtual ceremonies for about 80 percent of new citizens. The government did, however, revise the oath to include reference to Indigenous peoples.
However, compared to most other countries, the current requirements compare favourably in terms of access to citizenship. But proposals like self-affirmation of the citizenship oath or the massive shift to virtual ceremonies undermine one of the few celebratory moments for immigrants, and arguably reduce their sense of being welcomed to the "Canadian family."
Having experienced in-person ceremonies, both in my former official capacity, as well as celebrating with friends and family as they became citizens, their impact on new citizens and existing citizens is significant.
Citizenship should not be viewed simply as a government service (although it needs to ensure a quality service experience) but in the more fundamental sense of welcoming and belonging new citizens and assisting their integration journey.
One last detail. This Statistics Canada study will force IRCC to address its current performance standard of 85 percent of all immigrants, no matter their period of immigration, become Canadian citizens, given that the rate in 2021 was only 81.7 percent. While the pandemic shutdown clearly had an impact, IRCC should revised its performance standard to refer only to recent immigrants, five to nine years after landing (90 percent of immigrants do so within that period), as it is the recent immigrant rate that is the meaningful benchmark, not those immigrants who arrived many years ago.
This article examines the trends in citizenship rates among recent immigrants who have been in Canada for five to nine years, based on census data from 1991 to 2021. The citizenship rate among recent immigrants has decreased significantly, dropping from 75.4% in 1996 to 45.7% in 2021, a decline of 29.7 percentage points. Almost half of this decline occurred from 2016 to 2021, with approximately 40% of the most recent decrease possibly related to COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. However, even after accounting for the pandemic effect, the citizenship rate declined at a faster rate from 2016 to 2021 than during any other five-year intercensal period since 1996. The decline in citizenship rates among recent immigrants from 1996 to 2021 was larger among those with lower levels of education, lower family income and lower official language skills. The decrease was also more substantial among recent immigrants from East Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia than among their counterparts from the United States, Western Europe and Southern Europe. This article discusses possible explanations for these trends.
Source: The decline in the citizenship rate among recent immigrants to Canada: Update to 2021
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