"we can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness."
― Daniel Kahneman
When was a student spent most of time libraries, it suited my temperament and kept reading. That is only education that have and met many people, good students, academically oriented, non serious types and so on. Library was a microcosm of life. Learning number one - if you are not serious, you don't get anything. I also met him. He spoke English which never could fathom, words which had not heard of and straight from a spelling bee contest, he was a earlier GPT of few parameters of bullshit and all of which was excellent and incomprehensible. I thought it was a rare sight of incomprehensible competence and innocence. When ever understood him, he would happily say " Tum sai piyega." I would repeat " sai piyega." He disappeared as quickly as he entered one's consciousness. I have no idea - what happend to him? Did he become a teacher, writer or a central banker? I remembered him recently when chief minister of his state said " Is bar sar so par hai." I also remembered him some years ago when central banker used a word for " economy" which stumped me. I thought my friend may have joined central bank or have something to do with that word - floccinaucinihilipilification. Never mind Central bank governor has done well and also won awards.
Is bar sar so par?
All the exit polls seems to be indicating same and near domination for BJP and it's allies. It's a hit film and block buster. Exit polls may not be final word on poll results which are due in a day. It generally is not wrong eighty percent of times. So its about what you do ( track record), not what you say.( speeches) I guess there is a lesson for opposition if the exit poll numbers hold true. The trend will generally hold true. I have mentioned before in this blog that Prime minister Modi is the most popular leader and given delivery of welfare schemes has translated to gains ( no spillage/ corruption) BJP is in a pole position. Also the organizational push ( North east earlier/ now South) and determination to win makes it formidable. It also ensures opposition has no play to remain competitive.
I also feel there is a disconnect between intellectual debates about constitutionalism and general mood of people. People don't see democracy in trouble. They can vote and get their welfare schemes. The only play opposition had was joblessness/ inflation. It affects every one including yours truly. Medicines are expensive so are food items. There are no jobs. But the people seem to prefer Prime minister Modi who has assumed a larger than life persona partly by track record and also by narrative. They don't scrutinize or over look any other statements. Game. Set. Match - BJP and its allies.
All this might not come true on June 4. The chances are slim. Its almost a certainty that BJP and allies would win by a comfortable margin. I thought initially they would just about cross the necessary numbers. I thought may be 280. I guess all exit polls indicate NDA around 350 -380 range.
A big win for the ruling BJP-led NDA has been predicted by twelve exit polls - India Today- Axis My India (361-401), News 24-Today's Chanakya (400), ABP News-C Voter (353-383), Republic Bharat- P Marq (359), India News- D-Dyanamics (371), Republic Bharat- Matrize (353-368), Dainik Bhaskar (281-350), News Nation (342-378), TV 9 Bharatvarsh- Polstrat (342), Times Now-ETG (358), India TV- CNX (362-392) and Jan Ki Baat (362-392).
― NDTV, Exit poll results 2024 highlights:Most Exit Polls Predict Over 350 Seats For BJP-Led NDA
Let's wait for June 4.
One may be wrong or one may be right. Lekin Sai pina chahiye!
Sincerely, Suresh
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