No one really knows how much Donald Trump's conviction on 34 felony counts will hurt him politically.
A New York Times/Siena College poll late last year suggested it could have a significant effect, at least in the battleground states.
The survey found that 6% of voters in six swing states would switch from Trump to Joe Biden if the former president was convicted.
That would obviously swing the election decisively in Biden's direction. But, as we noted a few weeks ago, asking people to predict how they might feel in the future is often problematic.
So we'll wait for new polls to see if they pick up any shift. I'd be really surprised if the guilty verdict helps him — other than solidifying the support from his base — but it's still not clear how much it might hurt him.
The most immediate impact may be on Trump's fundraising. Trump's legal problems have often been followed by a short term spike in small donors stepping up to defend him.
But other than that, we are in completely uncharted territory.
Anyone who tells you how this will play is really just guessing.
Dan Pfeiffer: "The divide in the election is obvious. Democrats are doing very well with voters who pay close attention to the news. We are struggling with voters who get their news from social media or don't follow the news at all."
"The best time to reach these sorts of voters is at the big moments when political news breaks out of its small, hermetically sealed bubble and into the broader culture. This is one of those rare moments in post-2020 America when non-political people are talking about politics."
John Harris: "Many voters who don't much like Biden received an emphatic, unambiguous reminder of why they don't like Trump. The movement of even a small percentage of voters … could echo decisively through the balance of the race."
When politicians are convicted of felonies, they're almost always forced out of politics. They typically walk away in shame.
We know that won't happen with Donald Trump.
In fact, with 54 other felony charges pending, Trump's urgency to the win the election has only grown since today's historic verdict.
But Democrats should point out that Trump remaining a candidate is far from normal.
Democrats should remind voters that it's shameful for the Republican party to nominate a convicted felon for the most powerful office in the land.
They'll get a big chance just four days before the Republican National Convention when Trump is sentenced.
It sounds pretty simple, but Democrats need to refer to Trump as a convicted felon as often as they can.
Repetition is the key to landing your message in politics.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. slammed the jury's verdict in Donald Trump's "hush money" trial, calling it "profoundly undemocratic" and warning it will "backfire" against Democrats in November, The Hill reports.
"Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s campaign filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission on Tuesday alleging President Joe Biden's campaign, former President Donald Trump's campaign and CNN violated federal campaign laws in scheduling the network's June 27 presidential debate," CNN reports.
NEW JERSEY U.S. SENATOR. Indicted Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez reportedly has collected the necessary 800 voter signatures ahead of Tuesday's deadline to appear on November's ballot as an independent, according to NBC. New Jersey holds its party primaries that same day, and Rep. Andy Kim is heavily favored to win the Democratic nomination for Menendez's Senate seat.
The incumbent's corruption trial is ongoing, and NBC writes that it's expected to continue into July or longer. Ostensibly continuing to run would enable the senator to keep raising donor money for his legal defense, and it's unclear if he would wage an actual campaign to try to beat Kim and the Republican nominee this fall. Any independent who makes the ballot has until Aug. 16 to withdraw their name.
WISCONSIN U.S. SENATOR. A Senate Majority PAC affiliate has debuted a TV ad that attacks Republican Eric Hovde as a rich CEO whose bank "makes millions at seniors' expense" and "owns a nursing home being sued for elder abuse and wrongful death," citing a story from last month that the New York Times had first reported.
The commercial then plays a clip from a right-wing talk show appearance earlier in April where Hovde told the host that "almost nobody in a nursing home is in a point to vote" and insinuated without evidence that there was widespread voter fraud at Wisconsin nursing homes in the 2020 election.
Hovde's campaign has also unveiled new ads, with one spot covering generic far-right themes and cultural grievances. His second ad highlights his upbringing and family ancestry in Wisconsin to hit back against Democratic claims that he has mostly lived out-of-state for decades and spent most of his time in California before joining the race.
However, Hovde doesn't actually rebut those claims. After noting he graduated from the University of Wisconsin in 1986, he only says he's had a business in the Madison area "for over 20 years" and his family currently lives there.
PENNSYLVANIA U.S. SENATOR. "The main super PAC supporting David McCormick, the Republican running for Senate in Pennsylvania, is reserving $30 million worth of television ads in the state, a major escalation in the campaign to unseat Senator Bob Casey, the Democratic incumbent," the New York Times reports.
"The new reservation from the super PAC, known as Keystone Renewal, comes on top of the $82 million that both sides have already spent on, or reserved in, campaign ads in the state, according to AdImpact, which tracks advertising purchases."
"So far, the group has spent about $3.6 million on mostly positive ads about Mr. McCormick. But the super PAC plans to pivot to more negative spots aimed at Mr. Casey once the new ad buy begins."
NORTH DAKOTA GOVERNOR and AT LARGE DISTRICT. Donald Trump on Thursday endorsed Rep. Kelly Armstrong in the June 11 Republican primary for governor and Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak in the contest to replace Armstrong in North Dakota's lone House seat.
The few polls that have been released of the former contest have shown Armstrong decisively beating Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller, who is retiring Gov. Doug Burgum's preferred choice. Trump's decision to reject Miller comes at a time when Burgum is reportedly a top contender to become the GOP's vice presidential nominee. However, Trump did describe the governor as "my friend" in a separate endorsement message noting their mutual support for Fedorchak.
The House race, by contrast, lacked a clear frontrunner before Thursday. A pair of polls conducted earlier this month found a competitive race between the public service commissioner and former state Rep. Rick Becker, with former State Department official Alex Balazs and former Miss America Cara Mund further behind. However, many Republicans were undecided in those surveys, and Trump's endorsement could tip them toward Fedorchak.
The media outlet North Dakota News Cooperative has commissioned a survey from the GOP firm WPA Intelligence that shows Rep. Kelly Armstrong far ahead in the June 11 GOP primary for governor, but two Republicans are locked in a more competitive race to fill his House seat.
WPA finds Armstrong outpacing Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller 57-19 in the contest to replace retiring Gov. Doug Burgum, who supports Miller. An early May internal from the Democratic firm DFM Research for the labor group North Dakota United showed Armstrong ahead by an almost identical 56-18 spread, while an Armstrong internal from around that same time gave him an even larger advantage. No one has released any other polls of this contest.
But WPA's House portion has Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak leading former state Rep. Rick Becker by a much tighter 32-25 margin, with 28% undecided. Former Miss America Cara Mund and former State Department official Alex Balazs are well behind, though, with 10% and 5%, respectively.
DFM previously placed Becker ahead of Fedorchak 29-26, with Mund at 14%. No one has released any other polls of the contest to represent this dark red seat in the House. Fedorchak sports endorsements from Burgum and other prominent local Republicans like Sen. John Hoeven, while the far-right Freedom Caucus is pulling for Becker.
WASHINGTON GOVERNOR. A new Elway Research survey for KCTS-TV finds Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson and former GOP Rep. Dave Reichert both poised to advance out of the Aug. 6 top-two primary, a matchup that almost everyone in Washington politics has expected for some time.
Ferguson leads with 22% while Reichert outpaces Democratic state Sen. Mark Mullet 20-6 for second. Another 5% opt for a different Republican, far-right Marine veteran Semi Bird, while 47% of respondents are uncommitted. This release did not include general election numbers.
WEST VIRGINIA GOVERNOR. Retiring Democratic (and now Independent) Sen. Joe Manchin told the Charleston Gazette-Mail's Ty McClung on Wednesday that he would not make a late entry into the race for governor and that he's continuing to support Huntington Mayor Steve Williams, the Democratic nominee who faces a very uphill race against Republican state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey in what has become a very red state.
Manchin's announcement follows a May 20 report from MetroNews' Brad McElhinny that Republicans seeking a moderate alternative to the far-right Morrisey were encouraging Manchin to join the race, something he didn't fully rule out later that same day. Manchin likely would be the strongest candidate for Democrats thanks to his record of winning several statewide races, but Williams would have to withdraw from the race by Aug. 13 for the senator to replace him as the Democratic nominee.
While Manchin's latest announcement appears definitive, he's spent the last year and a half keeping everyone in suspense about what he might run for in 2024. As recently as March, he didn't rule out seeking reelection as an independent despite announcing his retirement last fall, and that option remains open to him until Aug. 1. Consequently, we may not know for sure what he'll do until the deadlines pass.
ARIZONA U.S. SENATOR. The Congressional Hispanic Caucus' Bold PAC announced this week that it has reserved $1.1 million in TV, radio, and digital advertising for September to aid Democrat Ruben Gallego. "The statewide investment represents the first Spanish language reservations in the general election in this race and is the largest single independent expenditure in BOLD PAC's 23 year history," the group said.
MINNESOTA U.S. SENATOR. Banker Joe Fraser announced Thursday that he'd compete in the Aug. 13 Republican primary against Royce White, a former NBA player and far-right conspiracy theorist who unexpectedly won the state party convention almost two weeks ago. The eventual nominee will be in for an uphill battle against Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who has won by at least a 20-point margin in all three of her statewide campaigns.
Minnesota candidates often pledge to, in local parlance, "abide" by the convention endorsement and end their campaigns if someone else wins, and Fraser himself made this promise before Royce's upset win. Fraser, though, said Thursday he was switching course because of Royce's "history of questionable conduct and serious charges leveled against him."
This includes a litany of ugly headlines that have followed Royce since he beat Fraser, such as a recent MSNBC piece titled, "Royce White's resurfaced remark about women being 'too mouthy' shows how MAGA recruits with misogyny.
"Royce White, a George Floyd protest leader and former college basketball star-turned-right-wing Senate candidate in Minnesota, was ordered to catch up after he fell behind on court-mandated child support payments at least a half-dozen times from 2020 to 2023," NBC News reports.
"White's candidacy has generated new attention after the Minnesota Republican Party endorsed him this month at its state convention, where he won the support of two-thirds of the voting delegates."
No comments:
Post a Comment