29 July 23
Warning: Treat this as fictional or factual risk is with the reader.
Sometime this month, a centurion centenarian stepped into the arc lights, flanked by the most powerful men of the Middle Kingdom, marking perhaps a milestone once more, five decades later, after he was first conveyed as 'baggage' aboard a Pakistani aeroplane surreptitiously to China at the height of the Cold War. A centurion he remains, perhaps to his end of days, defending the Rome of his Age and ever contributing to its core interests. He is Henry Kissinger, Secretary of State.
He arrived in Beijing after a double dose of high level diplomatic effort by officials of the present administration failed to make a mark. First Secretary Blinken, now viewed by most diplomatic corps and foreign affairs analysts as blindsided by Ukraine, made a determined effort to broker a deal with Beijing which was followed by a more fruitful effort by Secretary Yellen whose trip created a following for a particular regional cuisine that she had a cultivated palate for, which attracted a few million reposts and trends on Chinese Weibo. Within a fortnight, this American high level diplomatic effort to court China was in utter contrast to the events last year when Speaker Pelosi visited Taipei amidst growling and snarling from China's then Wolf Diplomats. For whatever its worth, that attempt to corner China openly last year proved to be bluster, and now this flip to woo China proved to be just some Instagram moments.
The Chinese greeted this man, whom they credit with reposing great faith in their 'system'. One who as an American, stepped out from the steep in which American bureaucracy and Deep State had been swilling in, to offer a trust and bargain to then beleaguered Beijing. A few moons ago, President Kennedy had threatened to nuke the Chinese if they advanced again on the Himalayas, and the Soviets under Khrushchev did not seem too warm to them either. The wheels that turned within wheels of this diplomatic coup that remains a watershed in our modern history are still cloaked, but Pakistan was to earn the sobriquet of 'all weather friend' after this from China, when she was the most allied non ally in Asia to Washington.
Kissinger had a series of engagements in China. Perhaps it was to do with American Debt, those trillions of dollars of bonds the US government had issued to the Federal Bank, which were once the staple of most growing economies wanting to park a part of their current surpluses to offset future uncertainties. After 2008, when China stepped in in a major way to 'bail out America', by buying a huge chunk of American debt, the Chinese have been steadily paring down their holdings over the last fifteen years. The centenarian was seeking a favour of his Chinese hosts to reverse this trend, largely led by President Xi Jinping? Was the Deep State alarmed that over the last 24 months, President Putin was exerting all of Russia's economic prowess to dilute the presence of the ubiquitous greenback? That China economically closing ranks with Russia, with BRICS proposal for an alternative global tender to the US$ was triggering panic?
More ominously, was Kissinger telling his Chinese hosts over sips of warm tea, that US was unable to benefit from the European mess that was Ukraine sufficiently, therefore the possibility of a trigger in Asia, an updated version of World War II, where either over South China Sea, or Taiwan, America hoped to create a divide and a long drawn war in the Indo Pacific where China was on one side, allied with North Korea, Myanmar and perhaps Thailand, while South Korea, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam and Australia on the other, while India and Indonesia waited to see which way the global balance was tilting before hitching theirs to the overwhelming bandwagon? For Kissinger, the stakes are deeply personal, as he had prophesied the rise of China, he had actively furthered it with all his energy with those whose ears he had earned in his life as a lobbying pragmatist. Nothing would have served American interests that Kissinger held were the DNA of his country more than to have China play a natural fiddle to America on the other side of the Pacific Ocean. Instead of the US straining to keep her allies across the Atlantic, it made eminent sense to him to seek China as a global partner for maintaining Pax Americana. Unfortunately the geography of Washington DC is such that the proximate Atlantic exerts an outsized pull in contrast to the promise of the Pacific.
Was Kissinger to pare American losses by suggesting a deal that would create a manageable conflict in Indo Pacific, much like how Iraqi Dictator President Saddam Hussein was led to invade Kuwait by Ambassador April Glaspie? Was he offering to President Xi and members of the CMC of China the tantalising prospects of physically overwhelming Taiwan by supplying qualified intelligence of American force levels and possible situation plans that appeared to offer a clear window for action? Considering his stature and record, Secretary Kissinger is the perfect Trojan Horse for the Chinese to take into their citadel and follow up on his map and be led to an American trap!
If Mr Wang Yi returned to the saddle of Foreign Affairs while continuing to keep his chair in the Central Politburo that supervised China's diplomatic operations, was this the Kissinger effect? If China suddenly broke diplomatic silence over the 'exchange of courtesies' that transpired at Bali last year over the G20 Summit dinner hosted by the Indonesian President, between the two Asian Giants China and India, now embattled along the Himalayas with close to 100000 troops staring at each other on either side! Substantial talks that addressed the core issues and framed the contours for agreement between the two Asian neighbours was under wraps, until China disclosed them, and this was followed by detailed talks on the sidelines of upcoming BRICS Summit at Johannesburg between Indian NSA Mr Doval and China's MEA the returning Mr Wang Yi. When Kissinger first visited China a similar rising star of the Chinese firmament had gone 'missing' as now the former MEA Mr Qin Gang of China. Was Mr Gang paying the price for being overly familiar with America and distant from his homegrown instincts? Was his sack something to do with mishandling Mr Kissinger's stated purpose? After all like others, Mr Gang was a deep pick, he had served as China's ambassador to Washington and facilitated the bilateral summitry that was Alaska, worked behind the scenes for the exchange of Huawei heir for Canadians, and was treated within Beijing as an American expert. Was the release of details of Bali 'detente' between Mr Xi and Mr Modi, an attempt to justify his 'ousting' and deflect from the Kissinger ripple effect?
Mr Kissinger has gone back to the shadows from where he had emerged. The Chinese are as capable of manipulating the narrative as the Americans are, so we can never know what actually transpired. However, we can see that perhaps, 'old friend' as President Xi referred to Secretary Kissinger, and the warmth with which he hosted the elder, has been playing behind the scenes, perhaps ever since Aussie PM Morrison blared the bugle about Climate of Strategic Uncertainty and singled out China. So is it his tutelage that tamed the wolves of Mandarins who ran riot talking hot and threatening sanctions from 2020? So is it his exertions that China wants to mend fences with India bilaterally hoping to keep her neutral and out of the Indo-Pacific War Scenario painted by analysts?
Will China dip into her reserves to pacific the US Treasury Department and indulge in some token bond purchases? Will China show more circumspection over her economic ties with Russia? Will China now under her systemic distrust of Private Enterprise?
Two key domestic policies were announced by President Xi and his minions in the immediate aftermath of the Kissinger visit. First was a clear plan to discourage speculation in real estate, with President Xi declaring " houses are for living in, not speculation". The second was a 31 Point Action Plan which Tencent leader Pony Ma described as 'extremely excited and encouraged' by, which plans to revive China's app based gig economy and small and medium enterprises as well as restore the equal standing of private enterprises with that of state owned ones. So is the new Chinese plan an insurance against global markets by creating domestic buoyancy and vibrant economic conditions through local demand and tailored domestic consumption?
The first foray of this protagonist and unabashed Sinophile led to the integration of China to the global economy which has made American plans to 'decouple' a non starter. This 'last hurrah' of sorts in the winter of his life by Mr Kissinger is a foray that could place China in a trajectory that could lead her to survive post an Indo Pacific meltdown?
What is certain is that the secrets that Mr Henry Kissinger has kept will remain with him. The titbits and the threads emerging from his exertions will tickle our curiosities and exert our attentions for next five decades as they have in the previous five!
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