New York Times: "Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year, abortion rights has become an invaluable political asset for Democrats. They have leveraged the issue to hold onto control of the Senate, limit losses in the House and, this month, fuel victories in key state races across the Midwest and the South."
"But perhaps the toughest test for the issue's power will come in Senate contests like Mr. Brown's in Ohio and Senator Jon Tester's in Montana. The fate of the razor-thin Democratic majority in the chamber could well be sealed in those two places, by the same voters who have installed Republicans in every other statewide office."
The Messenger: Montana submits proposal for abortion rights ballot initiative.
NEW YORK 17TH DISTRICT. Liz Whitmer Gereghty, a former member of a local school board, announced Tuesday that she was exiting the Democratic primary for New York's 17th District and endorsing former Rep. Mondaire Jones' campaign against freshman Republican Mike Lawler. Gereghty, who is the sister of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, explained that she was ending her campaign for this lower Hudson Valley seat because "[u]niting party and focusing our resources on taking back the House is critical to fighting back against the radical extremism plaguing our politics."
Observers spent months anticipating a tough battle between Gereghty and Jones, and a Politico story in April predicted the match would be "brutal" and "ugly." Indeed, Gereghty had already signaled that she would highlight how the former congressman unsuccessfully ran for renomination in a New York City seat last year in order to avoid a primary against the seat's fellow incumbent, Sean Patrick Maloney. (Lawler went on to unseat Maloney, who was serving as chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, 50.3-49.7).
But Jones, who said in December, "I've also learned my lesson, and that is home for me is in the Hudson Valley," massively outraised Gereghty during his first quarter in the race, a move that likely influenced her decision to drop out. Jones is now on a glide path to the nomination: His only remaining intraparty is former Bedford Town Supervisor MaryAnn Carr, who has generated little money or attention.
Few anticipated even weeks ago that Lawler would be the one who had to worry about winning his June primary, but that changed earlier this month, when former Trump administration official William Maloney set up an exploratory committee. Maloney told the National Journal he wouldn't decide whether to run until January, though that didn't stop him from trashing the incumbent for backing funding for Ukraine and opposing a 15-week abortion ban.
However, no one's sure exactly what this district will look like going into next year's elections. New York's highest judicial body, the Court of Appeals, heard arguments earlier this month in a lawsuit that hopes to compel changes in the state's court-imposed congressional boundaries. Joe Biden carried the current version of the 17th District 54-44, while Bloomberg's Greg Giroux reports that Republican Lee Zeldin beat Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul 52-48 here in 2022.
VIRGINIA U.S. SENATOR. Hung Cao (R), who is running in the Republican primary for the right to challenge Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), accused an ailing congresswoman of waiting to step down from Congress until she is fully vested in the U.S. congressional pension, The Messenger reports.
Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-VA) — who announced in September that she would not seek re-election because of an aggressive form of Parkinson's Disease — defeated Cao in 2022.
MARYLAND U.S. SENATOR. Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott announced Monday that he was endorsing Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks in the May 14 Democratic primary for Senate. Scott faces his own intraparty battle that same day as he tries to fend off former Mayor Sheila Dixon.
WASHINGTON U.S. SENATOR. Public Policy Polling (D) for the Northwest Progressive Institute: Maria Cantwell (D-inc): 51, Raul Garcia (R): 38
CALIFORNIA U.S. SENATOR. Wealthy tech executive Lexi Reese announced Tuesday that she was exiting the March top-two primary. The Democrat said she was departing the contest because of fundraising, writing, "$2 million is just not enough to run a state-wide campaign. As someone outside the system, voters don't know who I am and what I stand for."
UTAH U.S. SENATOR and 3RD DISTRICT. Roosevelt Mayor Rod Bird didn't dispel speculation that he could end his Senate bid and run to succeed Rep. John Curtis if his fellow Republican launched his own campaign for the upper chamber. "I've had a lot of people reach out, actually," he told the Deseret News. "For now, I'm 100% focused on the Senate race." Bird finished September with $1.1 million in the bank thanks almost entirely to self-funding, and he could transfer that money to a House race.
Political observer Kirk Jowers also speculates that conservative activist Carolyn Phippen could switch from the Senate to a race to replace Curtis, though she doesn't appear to have publicly addressed the idea. The Deseret News also writes about the many other Republicans who could run for the safely red 3rd Congressional District if Curtis seeks a promotion, but we'll hold off on looking at that open seat field until there's actually an open seat.
CALIFORNIA 16TH DISTRICT. Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian on Wednesday became the first major candidate to enter the March top-two primary to succeed his fellow Democrat, retiring Rep. Anna Eshoo, in this safely blue Silicon Valley seat.
He's almost certainly not going to be the last to file ahead of the Dec. 13 deadline. While former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo says he hasn't made up his mind, San Jose Spotlight reports that one of his allies is hosting a fundraiser for Liccardo on Sunday. San Jose Inside has also obtained an internal, which it says was done by "Liccardo supporters," conducted over the weekend by Public Policy Polling:
- former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D): 16
- Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian: 12
- 2018 candidate Karl Ryan (R): 9
- 2020 and 2022 candidate Rishi Kumar (D): 7
- Board of Equalization member Sally Lieber (D): 7
- 2022 candidate Peter Ohtaki (R): 6
- Assemblyman Evan Low (D): 5
- state Sen. Josh Becker (D): 4
- financial advisor Joby Bernstein (D): 1
- undecided: 33
Joe Biden carried this seat 75-22 in 2020, so there's a good chance that Democratic candidates will claim both spots in the Nov. 5 general election.
Kumar, a former Saratoga City Council member who lost last year's general election to Eshoo 58-42, launched another campaign well before the congresswoman retired, but he ended September with just $20,000 in the bank; San Jose Inside additionally says that Bernstein, Ohtaki, and Ryan have filed to run. Multiple media outlets also reported last week that Low will announce his own bid soon.
Simitian, a longtime local elected official who first joined the Palo Alto school board in 1983, finished the third quarter with $680,000 stockpiled thanks to a 2009 special that never occurred. As we recently wrote, the then-state senator announced he'd run that year to succeed Rep. Mike Honda if the congressman joined the Obama administration. While that job offer never came (Honda ultimately lost reelection to fellow Democrat Ro Khanna in 2016), Simitian still had almost $500,000 available at the end of last year, and he brought in more over the next nine months.
Former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo has filed FEC paperwork for a campaign to succeed his fellow Democrat, retiring Rep. Anna Eshoo, though he told the San Jose Mercury News he was still considering whether to run ahead of the Dec. 13 deadline. Politico does report, however, that Assemblyman Marc Berman won't run for Congress, though we hadn't previously heard his name mentioned.
CALIFORNIA 25TH DISTRICT. Indio Mayor Oscar Ortiz has filed FEC paperwork to run for this seat held by his fellow Democrat, Rep. Raul Ruiz, though Ortiz doesn't appear to have commented yet on his interest in the race.
CALIFORNIA 26TH DISTRICT. California political analyst Rob Pyers noted that Agoura Hills Mayor Chris Anstead, a Democrat, has taken out paperwork but not yet filed it to run for this seat, which is held by Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley. It's unclear what Anstead's intentions are, but we'll know soon enough: The state's filing deadline for the March 5 primary is on Dec. 8, though it would be extended to Dec. 13 for any races where an incumbent isn't running again.
CALIFORNIA 29TH DISTRICT. Sen. Alex Padilla on Wednesday joined retiring Rep. Tony Cardenas in backing Assemblywoman Luz Rivas for this safely Democratic seat. Rivas still has no serious opposition in the contest for this eastern San Fernando Valley constituency in Los Angeles.
COLORADO 5TH DISTRICT and MISSOURI 6TH DISTRICT. Punchbowl News writes that Colorado Rep. Doug Lamborn's team did not respond to questions about whether the Republican will seek a 10th term this cycle. Lamborn has faced several competitive nomination battles in his safely red Colorado Springs seat, and he only turned back then-state Rep. Dave Williams 47-33 in last year's primary. (Williams is now head of the state GOP.)
Punchbowl also speculates that Missouri Rep. Sam Graves could call it a career, with the site noting that he "may face a vigorous challenge" in the 119th Congress to keep his post as the top Republican on the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. There's no word from the 12-term incumbent about his reelection plans in his reliably conservative northern Missouri constituency.
IDAHO 2ND DISTRICT. While 13-term Rep. Mike Simpson said he was considering retiring over the summer, the Republican's team tells Punchbowl News that he's running again for this safely red eastern Idaho seat. Simpson fended off attorney Bryan Smith 55-33 in an expensive primary fight last year, and no major intraparty foes have stepped forward yet. The filing deadline for Idaho's May 21 primary is March 15.
WEST VIRGINIA U.S. SENATOR. The far-right Club for Growth, which is backing Rep. Alex Mooney in the May 14 Republican primary, has launched its first ad as part of a $1.2 million buy to oppose Gov. Jim Justice, who is Mooney's only major rival.
The spot claims that Justice and his family have "bankrolled" more than 100 Democratic candidates, including donations to the DNC for Barack Obama's 2012 reelection campaign and to Hillary Clinton's "leadership team." The ad does not explicitly note that Justice was first elected as a Democrat in 2016 (he had switched from Republican in 2015 but changed back to the GOP just months into his first term in 2017).
WEST VIRGINIA GOVERNOR. Two mid-November polls offer different takes on the May Republican primary to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. Jim Justice.
Secretary of State Mac Warner's allies at American Freedom Builders first publicized a CAMP survey showing Attorney General Patrick Morrisey leading him just 24-21, with Del. Moore Capito and businessman Chris Miller respectively at 18% and 11%. However, the conservative firm American Pulse Research & Polling's survey for WMOV Radio has Morrisey beating Capito 31-23 as Warner lags with 14% and Miller takes 10%.
Only APFP released numbers for the Republican's Senate primary, and it unsurprisingly finds Justice lapping Rep. Alex Mooney 56-20. Every other survey we've seen has also had Justice far ahead in the GOP nomination battle for the seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin.
MICHIGAN 8TH DISTRICT. The Daily Beast writes that Saginaw County Clerk Vanessa Guerra is "rumored" to be considering running to succeed her fellow Democrat, retiring Rep. Dan Kildee, though there's no word from her.
NEW YORK 3RD DISTRICT. Semafor writes that local Republicans view Nassau County Legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip as "an increasingly intriguing option" for a special election to replace George Santos, who has outright predicted that he'll be expelled this week. (Speaker Mike Johnson tells Axios he believes the vote will take place Friday.) Local party leaders, rather than primary voters, would be tasked with choosing their nominees if there's a contest for the remainder of Santos' term.
Pilip expressed interest in running in an interview with the JTA back in January, though she doesn't appear to have said much publicly about this race since then. Pilip went on to seek reelection to the county legislature this year and won 60-40 on Nov. 7. Pilip was airlifted from Ethiopia to Israel as a child, and the JTA titled its article, "Meet the real Jewish Republican of color being floated to replace George Santos, the fake one."
OHIO 6TH DISTRICT. State Sen. Michael Rulli has filed FEC paperwork for the safely red seat that his fellow Republican, Rep. Bill Johnson, is giving up to become president of Youngstown State University.
TEXAS 26TH DISTRICT. Former Denton County Judge Scott Armey announced Tuesday that he'd run to succeed retiring Rep. Michael Burgess, who defeated Armey in a nasty 2002 GOP primary runoff.
Armey joins a March 5 nomination contest that already includes businesswoman Luisa del Rosal and Brandon Gill, the founder of a far-right website and the son-in-law of MAGA toady Dinesh D'Souza. A May 28 runoff would take place in this safety red seat in the northern Fort Worth suburbs and exurbs if none of the candidates win a majority in the first round. The filing deadline is Dec. 11.
Armey, who is the former leader of Denton County (county judgeships in Texas are executive rather than judicial posts), looked like the easy favorite when his powerful father, then-House Majority Leader Dick Armey, unexpectedly announced his retirement three weeks ahead of the qualifying deadline. The younger Armey went on to secure 45% in the first round of the 2002 primary, while Burgess, an obstetrician who was running for office for the first time, outpaced Keith Self just 22.5-22.2 for second. (Self got elected in the neighboring 3rd District last year.)
However, the runoff did not go as planned for Armey, who had once enjoyed a 53-3 edge in one poll. Burgess campaigned as a political outsider and drew attention with mailers proclaiming, "My Dad is not Dick Armey." The former judge was also hurt when The Dallas Morning News reported that he'd supported contracts that benefited his friends and allies. Burgess additionally went after his opponent for his role in a 1992 car crash and spread around a letter where the victim said Armey "never once called to inquire about my well-being."
Armey, as D Magazine's Dan Michalski would write later that year, had the support of House Speaker Dennis Hastert, Majority Whip Tom DeLay, and Sen. Phil Gramm, though these endorsements and the expensive campaign that accompanied them may have done more harm than good. "That idea kind of backfired," political scientist John Todd said, "because it didn't really help the cause of convincing voters that this wasn't just Daddy entitling this public position to his son."
Burgess, who had the support of local officials who identified their preference as "Instead of Armey," ended up pulling off a 55-45 upset. "I've thrown my support behind Dr. Burgess," Armey told Michalski, "But you're getting someone who has set himself apart from the philosophies of Scott Armey and Dick Armey." The elder Armey, for his part, accused the Morning News of waging "an outrageous vendetta against me that was focused on my son," and he unsuccessfully tried to amend a major military appropriations bill to force its parent company, Belo Corporation, to divest from one of its media properties.
Scott Armey went on to take a job in the Bush administration at the General Services Administration, and he says he's since "built a career as a private wealth advisor with Ameriprise." He launched his comeback effort by pitching himself as an ardent fiscal conservative ally of Donald Trump, a man who was far from the political scene when Armey first ran for Congress.
UTAH 2ND DISTRICT. Republican Rep. Celeste Maloy took office Tuesday following her victory in last week's special election, but the Salt Lake Tribune reports she already has one likely foe in the June primary for a full term. Colby Jenkins, a Green Beret veteran who says he currently "serves as the Director of Tech Integration for a national telecommunications company," has filed FEC paperwork to raise money for what he calls an exploratory effort.
Jenkins is likely hoping that GOP voters aren't ready to forget about the negative press that dogged Maloy during her contest to succeed her old boss and top supporter, now-former Rep. Chris Stewart. Maloy won the GOP convention over the summer only for the Tribune to report days later that she'd last voted in Utah in 2018 before taking a job with Stewart in D.C. This absence led election officials to move her voter registration to inactive status, and Maloy's detractors unsuccessfully argued in court that she'd violated state law because she only became an active voter again after she filed to run for Congress.
However, none of this stopped Maloy from pulling off a 39-33 win in her September primary against former state Rep. Becky Edwards, who infuriated conservatives during the last presidential election when she endorsed Joe Biden. (Edwards has since expressed "regret"). Maloy went on to beat Democratic state Sen. Kathleen Riebe 57-34 in a seat that favored Donald Trump 57-40 in 2020.
VIRGINIA 10TH DISTRICT. Del. Michelle Maldonado on Wednesday joined what was already a busy race to succeed Rep. Jennifer Wexton, a fellow Democrat who is retiring for health reasons. Maldonado, who is the granddaughter of immigrants from Cape Verde, would be the first Black person to represent Northern Virginia in Congress.
Maldonado, who touted how she went from living in a "camping trailer for parts of her childhood" to becoming a "former corporate and tech attorney turned business leader," first won elected office in 2021 by waging a primary bid against Del. Lee Carter. Carter, a self-described democratic socialist, did himself no favors by waging a no-hope bid for governor at the same time he was running for reelection, and Maldonado beat him 44-38 before decisively winning the general election. Maldonado went on to secure reelection this month 56-43 in a seat that's home to just over 10% of Wexton's constituents.
Maldonado joins a Democratic field that includes Dan Helmer and David Reid, who also won reelection to the state House; former state House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn; state Sen. Jennifer Boysko; state Sen.-elect Suhas Subramanyam; and former state Education Secretary Atif Qarni. Two people we hadn't previously mentioned, Department of Defense official Brandon Garay and defense contractor Krystle Kaul, have also filed paperwork for their own prospective bids.
Several of Maldonado's intraparty opponents would also make history should they win this seat. Subramanyam would be both Virginia's first Indian American and Hindu House member, while Qarni would be both its first Pakistani American and Muslim representative. Filler-Corn, for her part, would be Northern Virginia's first Jewish House member.
VIRGINIA 7TH DISTRICT. State Sen. Jeremy McPike said Wednesday that he would not enter the race to succeed Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a fellow Democrat who is leaving to concentrate on her 2025 bid for governor.
Outgoing Del. Elizabeth Guzman declared Thursday that she was joining the busy contest to succeed Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a fellow Democrat who is retiring to focus on her 2025 bid for governor. Guzman, who is an immigrant from Peru, would be the first Latino to represent Virginia in Congress should she win this competitive Northern Virginia constituency.
Guzman won her seat in the legislature in 2017 when she ousted GOP Del. Scott Lingamfelter 54-44, and Nancy Pelosi picked her months later to deliver the party's Spanish-language response to Donald Trump's State of the Union. The delegate went on to secure a second term 53-47 in 2019, but Guzman's subsequent efforts to win higher office haven't gone well.
The delegate entered the 2021 race for lieutenant governor and initially announced that she wouldn't take advantage of a state law that would allow her to simultaneously run for the legislature. Guzman, though, switched course first by declaring that she'd run for both posts and then by ending her statewide effort. She went on to earn renomination 54-36 and won the general election 52-48 on a tough night for her party.
Guzman decided to challenge state Sen. Jeremy McPike for renomination this year after the state's new legislative maps placed her in the same state House district as one of her colleagues, and what followed was an expensive and unpredictable primary between two candidates who each campaigned as ardent liberals. McPike ultimately held on 50.2-49.8―a margin of 50 votes―and Guzman's fellow Democrats commended her for not seeking a recount.
McPike, who easily won reelection on Nov. 7, decided this week not to enter the race to replace Spanberger, but several other Democrats are already running for this 53-46 Biden constituency. The field includes Prince William County Supervisor Margaret Franklin; Del. Michelle Maldonado; and former National Security Council adviser Eugene Vindman, one of the whistleblowers who attracted national attention in the leadup to Donald Trump's first impeachment.
Virginia allows parties to select nominees through a convention, a party-run "firehouse primary," or a traditional June 18 state-run primary, but it would be a surprise if Democrats didn't go for the latter option.
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