'The easy options on house‑building'?

WorldbyStorm

May 2

Here's a scarifying thought. John MacManus in the Irish Times notes that government projections about house-building needs are already out of date due to updated Census figures.

At the heart of the problem is the 2022 Census data. The current targets are based on published population projections from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) drawn from the 2016 census. They predict that the population will reach 5.7 million people in 2041 based on conservative estimates about migration and fertility – the number of children that people already living here will have. The CSO has no immediate plan to plan to publish updated projections based on the 2022 census. No doubt it will do so once it is satisfied with the accuracy of its figures.

And:

It is not clear at this stage how much longer the Government plans to continue with the fiction that its current housing targets are meaningful. Ministers seem to be hedging their bets. The Taoiseach announced earlier this week that the number of new houses delivered this year is likely to be closer to 40,000 homes than 30,000. "It will be on the upper end rather than the lower end of that range," he said. It might have been a bit more accurate to say that they will fall 10,000 homes short of the number needed based on the latest census data.

Eventually the Government will have to confront this reality, which ministers are currently choosing to squint at through their fingers. Their reluctance is understandable. They have exhausted all the "easy" options when it comes to stimulating house building and something radical will be required or there will be trouble. Returning to the theme of Stalinist-era tractor manufacturing in the USSR, you can promise the peasants more tractors but if you can't deliver them the peasants will eventually revolt.

But the deeper question is why this government is so evidently unable to engage with the other 'harder' options around house-building. And perhaps something the Pat Leahy's of the world might reflect upon - aren't the incumbents meant to be the 'tough decision', 'painful choices' crew?