A new CNN poll shows Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in the presidential race nationally, 49% to 43%.
Key takeaway: "Looking back, 55% of all Americans now say they see Trump's presidency as a success, while 44% see it as a failure. In a January 2021 poll taken just before Trump left office and days after the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, 55% considered his time as president a failure."
"Assessing Biden's time in office so far, 61% say his presidency thus far has been a failure, while 39% say it's been a success."
Meanwhile, CBS News polled three key swing states:
- Michigan: Biden 51%, Trump 49%
- Pennsylvania: Trump 50%, Biden 49%
- Wisconsin: Trump 50%, Biden 49%
VERMONT GOVERNOR. In a very unexpected development, WCAX reported on Friday that former Gov. Howard Dean is considering a comeback bid for the post he gave up more than two decades ago ahead of his 2004 presidential campaign.
The Democrat soon confirmed his interest to VTDigger, though he wasn't forthcoming about his plans. "I am considering running," he told reporter Paul Heintz in a text message. "You get to find out when everyone else (me included) does."
There are, however, some major potential obstacles for Dean, who is the longest-serving governor in state history. While Republican Gov. Phil Scott still has yet to say whether he'll seek a fifth two-year term ahead of the May 30 candidate filing deadline, Heintz writes that the incumbent is "widely expected" to run again.
Scott is a proven vote-getter in what's otherwise a solidly blue state, and he'd be difficult for anyone to beat, including Dean. And if the governor does defy conventional wisdom and retire, prominent local Democrats who want to succeed him may not be inclined to defer to Dean. But we have to stand by for a while before we get official word from Scott, who waited until the last possible day to kick off his last reelection effort in 2022.
Dean was also an electoral powerhouse long before he became a national figure—and long before Vermont became a reliably Democratic state. In 1982, the year Dean was first elected to the state House, Gov. Richard Snelling fended off a challenge from Democratic Lt. Gov. Madeleine Kunin as his party maintained control of both chambers of the legislature—a state of affairs that would be unthinkable today.
Kunin went on to become the state's first woman governor after she narrowly won the 1984 race to replace the retiring Snelling. Her victory came despite Ronald Reagan's 49-state landslide—the only Democrat who had ever carried the state's electoral votes was Lyndon Johnson in 1964—but her next opponent would help state the stage for Dean's rise.
In 1986, Lt. Gov. Peter Smith, a Republican, left his post behind to challenge Kunin, opening the door for Dean to seek a promotion. Smith failed to knock off Kunin, but Dean snagged the number-two spot by beating back Republican Susan Auld 53-44. (Governors and lieutenant governors are elected separately in Vermont.)
Dean had no trouble holding his new post two years later, and he won his third term with 58% of the vote in 1990 even as Snelling was reclaiming the governorship. (Smith, who had gone on to win Vermont's only U.S. House seat two years before, lost reelection that cycle in a rematch with an independent named Bernie Sanders.)
But less than a year into his second stint, Snelling died of a sudden heart attack at 64, and Dean ascended to the governorship. The new chief executive proved to be popular and won his first full term 75-23 as Bill Clinton began the first in what's now an unbroken string of Democratic victories in the state at the presidential level. Dean always won reelection by double digits, though Republicans held one of the two chambers of the legislature during much of his governorship.
The Democrat faced his toughest challenge following a 1999 state Supreme Court ruling that required the legislature to either legalize same-sex marriage or create a separate system of domestic partnerships―neither of which was available in any state. Dean said the first option "makes me uncomfortable, the same as anyone else" but supported a civil unions bill, a move that riled conservatives.
"Vermont is going to enact the most radical social legislation in the country," declared former state Rep. Ruth Dwyer, the Republican who was challenging Dean for the governorship in 2000 two years after losing to him 56-41. Dean retorted that the civil unions bill he signed "speaks to the heart of this state, and certainly to my heart," and he held off Dwyer 50-38 while Progressive Party candidate Anthony Pollina took 10%.
In 2002, Dean retired after more than a decade in office as he planned out what looked like a longshot 2004 bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. That year, Republican Jim Douglas reclaimed the governorship for the GOP.
Dean's ardent opposition to the Iraq War, though, would help him emerge as a major force in national party politics even though he ultimately wasn't able to beat John Kerry for the nod. (While many observers still snark that his infamous "Dean Scream" cost the Vermonter everything, that howl came after he took a disappointing third place in the Iowa caucuses.)
Dean's presidential campaign transformed into Democracy for America, which for a time became a prominent progressive organization. (It disbanded in 2022.) Dean, exhorting Democrats to pursue a "50-state strategy," went on to chair the Democratic National Committee from 2005 to 2009, a period that saw the party retake both chambers of Congress and later the White House.
However, it would also mark the pinnacle of his national influence. The incoming Obama administration wouldn't offer the outgoing chairman any major posts, something that his allies blamed on hostility from Rahm Emanuel, the 2006 DCCC chairman and soon-to-be White House chief of staff.
Dean has remained a presence in the national media since leaving the DNC, but he hasn't held any major roles in party politics over the ensuing years. While he responded to Donald Trump's 2016 win by launching a campaign to reclaim the committee's chairmanship, Dean dropped out less than a month later.
It therefore came as a considerable surprise when word broke that Dean was interested in taking on Scott. If Dean were to reclaim his old job after a 22-year absence, he'd have one of the largest gaps between governorships in American history. However, he'd still fall short of the record that West Virginia Republican Cecil Underwood set when he was elected governor in 1996, 36 years after he was first termed out of office.
MARYLAND U.S. SENATOR. Rep. David Trone launched his first negative TV ad against Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks on Saturday, a development that comes after Trone has spent nearly a year running only positive spots ahead of their May 14 Democratic primary. Trone's offensive comes just before in-person early voting begins on Thursday.
The congressman's commercial features multiple current and former elected officials in Prince George's County arguing that, while Trone has a proven record in office, Alsobrooks doesn't.
"The U.S. Senate is not a place for training wheels," says County Council member Edward Burroughs, who later argues that Alsobrooks' tenure doesn't back up her image as a progressive.
State's Attorney Aisha Braveboy also makes an electability argument by insisting that Trone "is our best shot" to beat the likely Republican nominee, former Gov. Larry Hogan. All of the speakers in Trone's ad are Black (as is Alsobrooks), though B-roll of Trone shows him with white audiences.
Trone himself recently pitched himself as the strongest Democrat candidate against Hogan in another ad he launched last week, though that one did not mention Alsobrooks. A month ago, he said that "[v]oters don't want to hear negative attacks," and he hasn't been on the receiving end of many during this campaign. The only advertising that's gone after Trone so far comes from a group called Fight Corporate Monopolies, but HuffPost's Daniel Marans says that the buy, which began earlier this month, was "in the high five digits."
Alsobrooks responded to this negative Trone's spot by arguing to the Baltimore Banner that it demonstrates she's winning even though every poll that's been released has shown Trone ahead. The most recent surveys we saw before the congressman's new ad went live, though, both finished collecting data almost three weeks ago.
The two Democrats are campaigning to succeed Sen. Ben Cardin, who has not taken sides. Cardin told the Washington Post's Meagan Flynn the day he announced his retirement last May that, in the reporter's words, he "did not intend to make an endorsement in the Democratic primary, but would reconsider if others felt it was important for party unity." It remains to be seen if the senator will feel the need to get involved now that the race for his seat has taken a negative turn
MONTANA U.S. SENATOR. Montana U.S. Senate candidate Tim Sheehy (R) hired a campaign staffer who shared and liked racists posts on social media, the Daily Beast reports.
MICHIGAN U.S. SENATOR Former Rep. Peter Meijer, whose recent fundraising haul would have been feeble for a House campaign, announced on Friday that he was abandoning his bid for the Senate even though he'd already filed signatures to qualify for the Aug. 6 Republican primary.
The GOP establishment has largely coalesced around another ex-congressman, Mike Rogers, in his bid to flip the seat held by retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow, though a few other hopefuls remain. They include Meijer's predecessor, former Rep. Justin Amash, as well as wealthy businessman Sandy Pensler and physician Sherry O'Donnell, a far-right activist and conspiracy theorist who lost a primary challenge to ultraconservative Rep. Tim Walberg 67-33 in 2022.
WISCONSIN U.S. SENATOR. Wisconsin U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde (R) "has repeatedly accused young people of poor work ethic, drug use and crime, recordings from Hovde's former speaking engagements show," the Daily Cardinal reports.
In one talk, he labeled college students who protested as "so stupid" and said students cannot respectfully debate on college campuses anymore.
In another he said: "There's something going on with our younger people not entering into the labor force, but they have in the past. I fear part of it could be the big chronic drug problem that our country has had with opiates. I think part of it is kids haven't been taught the same work ethic that the Baby Boom generation has."
WEST VIRGINIA U.S. SENATOR. In case you weren't already aware that Don Blankenship, the ex-Republican ex-con who now purports to be running for Senate as a Democrat, is batshit crazy, please check out his new batch of TV ads, courtesy of Medium Buying. In case you're scared to click (you should be) because you don't want to alarm anyone who might be in earshot, here's a transcript of the first spot:
Blankenship: I'm Don Blankenship, candidate for the United States Senate, and I paid for this ad.
Narrator: Don Blankenship will tell you the honest truth!
RFK Jr.: Don Blankenship … he's the most honest CEO in America!
Narrator: Unfortunately, our government is not honest. Even the truth about the murders of Mr. Kennedy's dad and uncle are kept hidden. They even refused to keep Mr. Kennedy safe because he left the party. Your choice is simple: You could vote for more lies, or you could vote for …
RFK Jr.: Most honest CEO in America!
Blankenship: If they tell you I fell off the bed and hung myself, I didn't.
The old grainy footage of Kennedy, by the way, is from a strange public debate he and Blankenship staged in 2010 over the merits of mountaintop removal mining. Just months later, a fatal accident at a coal mine run by Blankenship led to the deaths of 29 miners, the worst such disaster on American soil in 40 years. The man Kennedy praised as "the most honest CEO in America" would later serve a year in federal prison for conspiring to violate federal mine safety rules.
MISSOURI GOVERNOR. The conservative nonprofit Building America's Future has released a survey from the Tyson Group giving Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft a 36-11 lead over Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe in the Aug. 6 GOP primary for governor, with state Sen. Bill Eigel at just 3%. A 40% plurality of respondents are undecided, while the balance is split between minor candidates.
There is no word on the sponsor's rooting interest in the contest to succeed the termed-out incumbent, Republican Mike Parson. Almost every poll we've seen has placed Ashcroft well ahead of Kehoe, though the lieutenant governor enjoys a huge financial advantage.
WASHINGTON GOVERNOR. While Democratic state Sen. Mark Mullet has barely registered in the few polls we've seen this year of the Aug. 6 top-two primary for Washington's open governorship, his allies are hoping to change that.
A group called the Coalition for Pragmatic Leadership spent close to $500,000 on advertising over the last week, feature spots touting Mullet as a liberal who is "running to fix the real problems we have with skyrocketing costs, crime, and homelessness."
The Washington Observer notes that the organization's donors include developer George Rowley as well as McDonald's and Marathon Petroleum. The ad does not mention Attorney General Bob Ferguson, who is the Democratic frontrunner, or retiring Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee, but Mullet is calling them both out in his first TV ad.
"I'm the kind of Democrat who isn't afraid to say to Jay Inslee and Bob Ferguson, 'It's time for a change,'" says Mullet. Earlier in the same commercial, he touts himself as a Democrat "who wants to bring down housing costs, lower crime, and keep illegal drugs illegal."
That line is accompanied by a snippet of a 2021 KUOW article reporting that Ferguson "is urging legislators to move forward with drug decriminalization." Three years ago, the attorney general called for the state to do away with criminal drug penalties for the possession of "non-commercial" amounts.
Ferguson responded to Mullet's ad by emphasizing to the Observer his support for a 2023 bill signed by Inslee that increased both penalties for possession and funding for treatment programs. He also highlighted his efforts to obtain financial restitution from companies involved in the opioid crisis.
MINNESOTA 7TH DISTRICT. Attendees at Saturday's Republican convention in Minnesota's conservative 7th Congressional District declined to endorse Rep. Michelle Fischbach for reelection after she failed to secure the necessary 60% support following three rounds of voting.
Fischbach found herself on the outs thanks to an insurgent campaign by businessman Steve Boyd, who said afterward in a statement that delegates' decision to adjourn without issuing an endorsement, "while technically a stalemate, was really a victory for our grassroots campaign."
The two will now proceed to the Aug. 13 primary, where a vastly larger electorate will hold sway, but the sophomore congresswoman seemed to detect trouble ahead of the convention.
Fischbach had originally pledged to abide by its endorsement, which any incumbent should receive almost as a formality. Rep. Pete Stauber, for instance, easily secured the backing of delegates in the neighboring 8th District who'd gathered the same day.
But as we saw in Utah on Saturday, sometimes it's not automatic. And that put Fischbach in a bind, because sticking with her promise would have meant dropping her campaign for reelection. To avoid such an unthinkable outcome, Fischbach rescinded her pledge not long before the convention, blaming her about-face on Boyd's stated intention of forging on to the primary no matter what.
A victory by Boyd in August would, however, still be a major upset. As of the end of March, he'd raised under $100,000 and had just $23,000 in his campaign coffers. Fischbach, though, had banked a less-than-daunting $386,000, though her fundraising is sure to ramp up given the threat to her political future.
NEW YORK 22ND DISTRICT. Utica University history professor Clemmie Harris has dropped his bid for New York's 22nd District, saying he'd fallen short of the necessary signatures following a challenge by a supporter of one of his opponents in the Democratic primary, Sarah Klee Hood. Klee Hood's campaign, however, said it was not involved in the effort to remove Harris from the ballot.
The race for the right to take on freshman GOP Rep. Brandon Williams is now a two-way battle between Klee Hood and state Sen. John Mannion. The two were fairly evenly matched in fundraising in the most recent quarter, but Mannion posted a 42-20 lead in an internal poll he commissioned late last month, and Klee Hood hasn't responded with contradictory numbers. (Harris was at just 9% in that survey.)
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