2 August 2022
It is not every day that the boldest strategic sweepstakes is undertaken by a Constitutional figure head in a Democracy. Ms Nancy Pelosi is the Speaker of the US House of Representatives. She is third in line as POTUS, immediately after the Vice President Ms Kamala Harris is the Constitutional scheme of things in USA. Her present tour to Asia is expected to breach a curtain that China raised, against high level visits to Taipei by Western leaders, it will be the first in 25 years for a leader of her stature to be visiting what China describes routinely as a rogue province, one which until recently called itself officially as the Republic of China, distinguishing itself from the mainland which calls itself People's Republic of China.
Domestically, the visit of Ms Pelosi represents a break from previous practise, where diplomatic missions undertaken by a non cabinet official that too at her level, would be an orchestrated one, scripted by the State Department as well as the West Wing. The reports while confirming her visit do not detract from the obvious angst that the Pentagon had over it, the misgivings the POTUS had over its timing, and overall sense of unease within the State Department and the White House itself over it. Taiwan is probably the 'make or break' issue when it comes to the USA, for it was initially a child of America, it remains a poster boy for free market economy and democracy, not to mention a key player in high technologies particularly a near monopoly in smart nano semi conductor chips. Up till 1980, the Sino American Mutual Defense Treaty ensured that America would militarily be responsible for the defence of Taiwan, a cause that was given up legally when it was replaced by the US Taiwan Foreign Relations* Act 1979. (* "shall maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or social or economic system, of the people of Taiwan".) Only a dense reading of the two legislations would deny that that in the current Act, the legitimacy of Taiwan as a country, as a sovereign and its automatic claim to US assistance if invaded were altered fundamentally.
So in midst of China's 'peaceful rise', in the midst of Chinese PLA presence in areas contested in Himalayan South Asia, from Nepal, Bhutan, to India, in the midst of tensions over South China Sea, Ms Pelosi has chosen to visit Taiwan in a private aircraft from Malaysia. Should she have chosen to fly from Japan? After all, prior to the assassination of former PM Shinzo Abe, Japan was most vociferous backer of the Taiwanese government against China. Yet in many ways, Taiwan is where China appears most vulnerable. After all, a mere export of Chinese model of democracy that Taiwan has perfected in last few decades is all that US needs for mainland China to redraw the strategic calculus that has placed it currently in animosity with USA. The same is bolstered every time, Taiwan is taken up as a model of governance, of design as a nation, and implied as an alternative to CCP China.
Apparently the security establishment is all abuzz with probably Chinese ante raising tactics like firing a few salvoes of rockets into the SCS, or conducting a large scale exercise off Taiwanese air and sea space on Wednesday which is the probable date when Ms Pelosi will be closeted with President Tsai in Taipei. The sabre rattling could be well followed by economic and cultural moves which are predictable by now. President Xi has warned that Taiwan is 'playing with fire'. So naturally the rhetoric needs substantiation. Eastern European media outlets are hinting at both Taiwanese and Chinese mobilisation, including moving of Mirage fighters to Taitung airbase by Taiwan and the the entry of Chinese Aircraft Carriers into the waters of SCS yesterday off Hainan sailing due east. Geographically Hainan is like a near identical twin of Taiwan, only, it is located on the Westward limb of the coast of China while Taiwan is on its Eastward one. However no one quite fancies Chinese PLAN carrier groups to reach the Straits of Taiwan any time soon. Historically only American Carrier groups have tested those waters. For naval observers, this move could just be a delayed Chinese response to the presence of two Air Craft Carrier groups of the USN itself which are in the SCS since January this year- the USS Carl Vinson and USS Abraham Lincoln of the Nimitz class. USS Ronald Reagan the most advanced fully operational CSG has reportedly set sail from Singapore to the SCS ahead of the visit of the Speaker
In the current geopolitical scenario, neither US nor China is likely to test the other militarily, as both as distracted by Eastern Europe, where after much muddling and fixing, the first shipment of grain from Ukraine left Odessa port yesterday for Istanbul carrying maize. What the UN brokered deal hopes to fix is export of about 40% of Ukraine's harvest via a corridor in the Black Sea opened by Russians after de-mining operations. That is the sliver of hope in an otherwise gloomy war reporting from rest of Ukraine, including the brutal attritional nature of the campaign which is increasingly taking a toll on human lives, both combatant and non combatant. The Chinese are observing how the US weaponry is performing against Russian countermeasures, particularly the artillery and guided munitions, the signalling and telemetry grids, the sensing and radar networks. They are also watching how the Russians are using Su 35s and Iskandar batteries, how they are improvising by using wooden frames over APCs and Tanks to deflect American Anti Tank missiles. Already the use of flares and meshes has proved effective against MANPADS. Claims from the ground made by Ukraine are as dubious as the videos of Alligators taking to skies and barrelling the ground below shown regularly on Russian language social media. If anything, the Chinese will imbibe the lessons they are learning from the ground in Ukraine and thereafter could well redo their own order of battle and battle tactics before acting in contested water or air space.
So will Pelosi visit act for the US the way the Pelican flight does, bringing in economy of effort by using favourable conditions of flight flying close to the surface? Pelosi's entry to Taiwan is more than an expression of intent, it is a clear message to Beijing and the Red Army honchos that Taiwan can and will dare. However, the way in which the visit is happening, Beijing will be diplomatically assured that there is no change in the established stance of the US which changed after Washington recognised Beijing to be the real China. More than any specific military package Taiwan is likely to be hectored about careful investing in mainland China, and it will be encouraged to decouple from China to the extent it is feasible going forward. It is ironical that Speaker Pelosi will offer Taiwan much of the content and context of the message President Trump with his sanctions delivered.The critical Chip manufacturing faces pressures domestically in both Taiwan and USA.
Pelosi visit to Taiwan is significant as it reveals both the strength and weakness of the US system to engage with China. By itself, it is not capable of altering the strategic balance in favour of the US. However, it can offer US some leverage going forward in East Asia and Pacific Region where its main contender is the undeterred CCP China!
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