IRCC Operational Data – Occupations – Shift toward lower skilled

Andrew

Feb 28

Given a number of public discussions and advocacy for a permanent residency stream for lower-skilled workers, given labour market pressures, exploitation of Temporary Foreign Workers and the bias/preference of immigration programs towards the higher skilled (justified IMO), I spent some time looking at IRCC's operational data: Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents 15 years of age or older by Province/Territory and Intended Occupation (4-Digit NOC 2011), January 2015 - December 2022 .

Taking out the "other" and "occupation not stated" categories, about two-thirds of all data, the data shows a shift over this period towards lower skilled: the percentage of highest skilled (NOC A - Occupations usually require university education) had fallen from 50.6% to 37.2%.

The other skilled category, NOC B – Occupations usually require college education, specialized training or apprenticeship training, increased from 34.9% to 38.8%, with more dramatic increases in lower skilled. NOC C – Occupations usually require secondary school and/or occupation-specific training, rose from 7.6% to 15.5%, and NOC D – On-the-job training is usually provided for occupations, rose from 6.0% to 8.1%.

The table below provides the annual details.

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
A (0, 1)	31,085	28,665	31,405	41,135	44,290	24,620	39,925	42,815
B (2, 3	21,435	19,905	24,290	27,505	32,185	19,855	80,270	44,680
C (4,5)	4,640	4,000	3,935	5,600	7,695	3,030	14,920	17,905
D (6,7)	3,700	3,825	4,195	5,030	5,535	3,315	11,505	9,385

Other	152,280	166,815	164,100	175,735	180,775	97,040	188,830	229,450
Occupation not stated	45	100	35	20	220	150	240	345

Total stated occupations	61,375	56,870	64,155	79,585	90,230	51,065	146,955	115,225

Total	213,700	223,785	228,290	255,340	271,225	148,255	336,025	345,020

A (0, 1)	14.5%	12.8%	13.8%	16.1%	16.3%	16.6%	11.9%	12.4%
B (2, 3	10.0%	8.9%	10.6%	10.8%	11.9%	13.4%	23.9%	12.9%
C (4,5)	2.2%	1.8%	1.7%	2.2%	2.8%	2.0%	4.4%	5.2%
D (6,7)	1.7%	1.7%	1.8%	2.0%	2.0%	2.2%	3.4%	2.7%

Other	71.3%	74.5%	71.9%	68.8%	66.7%	65.5%	56.2%	66.5%
Occupation not stated	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%

Percentage of stated occupations

A (0, 1)	50.6%	50.4%	49.0%	51.7%	49.1%	48.2%	27.2%	37.2%
B (2, 3	34.9%	35.0%	37.9%	34.6%	35.7%	38.9%	54.6%	38.8%
C (4,5)	7.6%	7.0%	6.1%	7.0%	8.5%	5.9%	10.2%	15.5%
D (6,7)	6.0%	6.7%	6.5%	6.3%	6.1%	6.5%	7.8%	8.1%

A, B	85.6%	85.4%	86.8%	86.2%	84.8%	87.1%	81.8%	75.9%
C, D	13.6%	13.8%	12.7%	13.4%	14.7%	12.4%	18.0%	23.7%

IRCC Immigration Occupational Codes Summary

8 of the top 10 occupations that increased the most over this period were NOC C and D, all of which increased by 1,000 percent or more:

4412 - Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations

6541 - Security guards and related security service occupations

6622 - Store shelf stockers, clerks and order fillers

6611 - Cashiers

0601 - Corporate sales managers

3237 - Other technical occupations in therapy and assessment

7247 - Cable television service and maintenance technicians

9461 - Process control and machine operators, food, beverage and associated products processing

7514 - Delivery and courier service drivers

6623 - Other sales related occupations

Top 10 Immigration Occupations

Another interesting aspect of the data is the relative lack of variation between the various occupational codes as shown in the following table with the last column showing the change 2015 to 2022. For all occupations, the share of NOC A decreases by an average of 12.4 percent or more, with the share of NOC C increasing by an average of 8.2 percent:

		2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	Change 22-15
0 - Management	A (0, 1)	26,325	24,320	25,975	34,855	38,050	21,500	36,050	37,675	66.0%	66.4%	65.4%	67.1%	64.7%	64.4%	42.1%	53.1%	-12.9%
	B (2, 3	8,390	6,970	7,995	9,600	12,125	7,210	32,565	18,615	21.0%	19.0%	20.1%	18.5%	20.6%	21.6%	38.0%	26.3%	5.2%
	C (4,5)	1,645	1,635	1,640	2,605	3,425	1,445	7,000	8,100	4.1%	4.5%	4.1%	5.0%	5.8%	4.3%	8.2%	11.4%	7.3%
	D (6,7)	3,500	3,725	4,085	4,900	5,205	3,215	10,100	6,500	8.8%	10.2%	10.3%	9.4%	8.9%	9.6%	11.8%	9.2%	0.4%

	Total	39,860	36,650	39,695	51,960	58,805	33,370	85,715	70,890	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
1 - Business & Admin	A (0, 1)	25,655	23,535	25,215	34,025	37,195	20,950	35,170	36,800	63.9%	64.4%	64.3%	66.9%	64.7%	64.4%	41.0%	52.2%	-11.8%
	B (2, 3	10,005	8,655	10,275	12,195	15,065	9,280	40,775	22,740	24.9%	23.7%	26.2%	24.0%	26.2%	28.5%	47.5%	32.2%	7.3%
	C (4,5)	2,310	2,165	2,055	2,945	3,645	1,510	7,315	8,435	5.8%	5.9%	5.2%	5.8%	6.3%	4.6%	8.5%	12.0%	6.2%
	D (6,7)	2,160	2,165	1,650	1,665	1,595	800	2,545	2,575	5.4%	5.9%	4.2%	3.3%	2.8%	2.5%	3.0%	3.6%	-1.7%

	Total	40,130	36,520	39,195	50,830	57,500	32,540	85,805	70,550	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2 - Sciences	A (0, 1)	25,655	23,535	25,215	34,025	37,195	20,950	35,170	36,800	63.1%	63.0%	63.1%	66.6%	64.5%	63.9%	40.6%	52.6%	-10.5%
	B (2, 3	11,260	10,040	11,520	12,995	15,645	9,650	42,085	22,665	27.7%	26.9%	28.8%	25.4%	27.1%	29.4%	48.5%	32.4%	4.7%
	C (4,5)	1,605	1,590	1,560	2,440	3,245	1,375	6,905	7,950	3.9%	4.3%	3.9%	4.8%	5.6%	4.2%	8.0%	11.4%	7.4%
	D (6,7)	2,160	2,165	1,650	1,665	1,595	800	2,545	2,575	5.3%	5.8%	4.1%	3.3%	2.8%	2.4%	2.9%	3.7%	-1.6%

	Total	40,680	37,330	39,945	51,125	57,680	32,775	86,705	69,990	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
3 - Health	A (0, 1)	27,465	25,470	27,905	36,655	39,045	21,695	35,990	38,150	68.3%	69.7%	71.2%	73.5%	70.3%	70.5%	45.3%	55.4%	-13.0%
	B (2, 3	8,690	7,055	7,830	8,855	11,330	6,755	32,555	18,190	21.6%	19.3%	20.0%	17.8%	20.4%	22.0%	41.0%	26.4%	4.8%
	C (4,5)	1,870	1,870	1,780	2,695	3,545	1,505	8,310	9,975	4.7%	5.1%	4.5%	5.4%	6.4%	4.9%	10.5%	14.5%	9.8%
	D (6,7)	2,160	2,165	1,650	1,665	1,595	800	2,545	2,575	5.4%	5.9%	4.2%	3.3%	2.9%	2.6%	3.2%	3.7%	-1.6%

	Total	40,185	36,560	39,165	49,870	55,515	30,755	79,400	68,890	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
4 - Education & Govt	A (0, 1)	28,605	25,945	27,955	37,675	41,585	23,325	38,225	40,590	68.6%	68.8%	70.0%	72.4%	68.5%	69.3%	44.6%	54.7%	-13.9%
	B (2, 3	8,445	7,310	7,960	9,225	12,135	7,280	34,520	19,355	20.2%	19.4%	19.9%	17.7%	20.0%	21.6%	40.2%	26.1%	5.8%
	C (4,5)	2,505	2,265	2,395	3,505	5,420	2,255	10,500	11,700	6.0%	6.0%	6.0%	6.7%	8.9%	6.7%	12.2%	15.8%	9.8%
	D (6,7)	2,160	2,165	1,650	1,665	1,595	800	2,545	2,575	5.2%	5.7%	4.1%	3.2%	2.6%	2.4%	3.0%	3.5%	-1.7%

	Total	41,715	37,685	39,960	52,070	60,735	33,660	85,790	74,220	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
5 - Arts culture & Sport	A (0, 1)	25,655	23,535	25,215	34,025	37,195	20,950	35,170	36,800	67.5%	67.8%	68.3%	71.1%	68.4%	68.3%	44.9%	55.7%	-11.8%
	B (2, 3	8,595	7,430	8,515	9,755	12,325	7,530	33,750	18,735	22.6%	21.4%	23.1%	20.4%	22.7%	24.6%	43.1%	28.4%	5.8%
	C (4,5)	1,605	1,590	1,560	2,440	3,245	1,375	6,905	7,950	4.2%	4.6%	4.2%	5.1%	6.0%	4.5%	8.8%	12.0%	7.8%
	D (6,7)	2,160	2,165	1,650	1,665	1,595	800	2,545	2,575	5.7%	6.2%	4.5%	3.5%	2.9%	2.6%	3.2%	3.9%	-1.8%

	Total	38,015	34,720	36,940	47,885	54,360	30,655	78,370	66,060	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
6 – Sales and service	A (0, 1)	25,655	23,535	25,215	34,025	37,195	20,950	35,170	36,800	65.1%	66.1%	65.4%	67.6%	64.7%	64.6%	40.2%	50.3%	-14.8%
	B (2, 3	9,305	7,975	9,765	11,675	14,770	9,050	40,970	22,185	23.6%	22.4%	25.3%	23.2%	25.7%	27.9%	46.8%	30.3%	6.7%
	C (4,5)	2,115	1,880	1,865	2,870	3,705	1,540	7,745	9,165	5.4%	5.3%	4.8%	5.7%	6.4%	4.8%	8.8%	12.5%	7.2%
	D (6,7)	2,310	2,215	1,735	1,770	1,860	875	3,690	4,965	5.9%	6.2%	4.5%	3.5%	3.2%	2.7%	4.2%	6.8%	0.9%

	Total	39,385	35,605	38,580	50,340	57,530	32,415	87,575	73,115	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
7 – Trades, transport and equipment operators	A (0, 1)	25,655	23,535	25,215	34,025	37,195	20,950	35,170	36,800	64.3%	65.8%	67.2%	70.8%	67.9%	68.7%	42.3%	53.4%	-10.9%
	B (2, 3	10,365	8,345	9,005	9,865	12,645	7,315	37,910	20,410	26.0%	23.3%	24.0%	20.5%	23.1%	24.0%	45.6%	29.6%	3.6%
	C (4,5)	1,705	1,705	1,600	2,485	3,290	1,390	7,440	8,900	4.3%	4.8%	4.3%	5.2%	6.0%	4.6%	8.9%	12.9%	8.6%
	D (6,7)	2,185	2,200	1,675	1,685	1,635	820	2,675	2,820	5.5%	6.1%	4.5%	3.5%	3.0%	2.7%	3.2%	4.1%	-1.4%

	Total	39,910	35,785	37,495	48,060	54,765	30,475	83,195	68,930	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
8 – Natural resources, agriculture	A (0, 1)	25,655	23,535	25,215	34,025	37,195	20,950	35,170	36,800	68.2%	68.8%	70.2%	72.7%	69.7%	70.2%	46.0%	56.3%	-11.9%
	B (2, 3	8,080	6,865	7,420	8,540	11,175	6,675	31,675	17,625	21.5%	20.1%	20.6%	18.2%	20.9%	22.4%	41.4%	27.0%	5.5%
	C (4,5)	1,740	1,665	1,655	2,600	3,400	1,410	7,070	8,285	4.6%	4.9%	4.6%	5.6%	6.4%	4.7%	9.2%	12.7%	8.1%
	D (6,7)	2,160	2,165	1,650	1,665	1,600	800	2,585	2,645	5.7%	6.3%	4.6%	3.6%	3.0%	2.7%	3.4%	4.0%	-1.7%

	Total	37,635	34,230	35,940	46,830	53,370	29,835	76,500	65,355	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
9 – Manufacturing and utilities	A (0, 1)	25,655	23,535	25,215	34,025	37,195	20,950	35,170	36,800	68.1%	69.0%	70.0%	72.3%	69.2%	70.0%	45.3%	55.7%	-12.4%
	B (2, 3	7,825	6,455	7,275	8,375	10,955	6,575	32,015	17,475	20.8%	18.9%	20.2%	17.8%	20.4%	22.0%	41.2%	26.5%	5.7%
	C (4,5)	1,985	1,945	1,865	2,975	3,980	1,600	7,875	8,995	5.3%	5.7%	5.2%	6.3%	7.4%	5.3%	10.1%	13.6%	8.4%
	D (6,7)	2,185	2,180	1,650	1,670	1,615	805	2,635	2,755	5.8%	6.4%	4.6%	3.5%	3.0%	2.7%	3.4%	4.2%	-1.6%

	Total	37,650	34,115	36,005	47,045	53,745	29,930	77,695	66,025	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%