So, another raft of polls across May and what does the poll of polls here suggest?
That the Sinn Féin decline has levelled out. They appear to be operating in or around 32%, or a bit higher on a good day. By contrast Fine Gael's support has gone into quite a steep decline, with that of Fianna Fáil lower than its traditional rival but declining less steeply. It's quite striking how PBP-SOL have been losing support looking at this graphic since mid 2022. I'm genuinely curious why this is so, or at least what possible explanations there are? Meanwhile Labour and the GP might actually be gaining fractional support. That too raises questions.
It is the Social Democrats and Independents who see the steepest rises in support. Clearly the arrival of a new Social Democrat leader has done them no harm at all. I've heard some suggest that this was a little too early given the time to the election but, on the other hand, that graph suggests they'll retain a good number of their seats come that contest. Though a caveat. They were hitting similar polling numbers early to mid 2021. Any particular reasons for that one wonders?
And Independents continue to rise as they have largely been doing since mid-2021. Perhaps they are a repository for those not quite sold on Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael, note how the Independent vote rises as those other parties lose support. But then again given their numbers and given that they received 13.9% of the first preference vote in 2020 the fact they're polling in or around 13% will no doubt be of some comfort to them. One has to suspect they'll be squeezed by Sinn Féin, perhaps quite severely, but there seems little doubt that a good number will be returned in the next Dáil.
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