No change poll

WorldbyStorm

Jun 5

So, another poll this weekend, this time from the Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent stable.

SF 32% +1

FG 20% NC

FF 19% NC

IND 13% +1

SD 6% +1

LP 3% -1

AONTU 3% +1

GP 3% NC

SOL/PBP 2% -2

Broadly speaking no change at all. Indeed to the extent that there's nothing to actually say (as noted by Aonrud in comments) above and beyond the figures.

That said the analysis from the Independent itself is somewhat interesting:

Fine Gael's call for a €1,000 tax cut in the budget has fallen flat, with a majority of voters saying it would make no difference to whether they would vote for Leo Varadkar's party in the next election.

The latest Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll finds last month's tax-cut call by three junior ministers did little to enhance Fine Gael's popularity among voters, with 56pc of those polled saying it would make no difference to their voting intentions.

And:

Despite 59pc of those polled favouring the €1,000 tax cut for people earning the average household income of €52,000 a year, more than a fifth of voters (22pc) said it would make them less likely to vote Fine Gael. Just 15pc said it would make them more likely. This falls to 10pc when Fine Gael voters are excluded. The party is also unchanged in the state of the parties' poll at 20pc.

Perhaps more accurately the call by Fine Gael had no impact. And why would it? It's an appeal really that is designed to most hit home with their own base. I suppose they might pull in a few FF votes but many beyond that? Seems implausible. And the pushback against the idea it was for genuinely 'middle income' earners as distinct from a nice little gift for the better-off was strong.

Here's an interesting stat:

Only 18pc want an immediate election now — an 11-point drop since last September. By contrast, 45pc of those polled want an election as scheduled in 2025, up 13 points on nine months ago. The latest the next election can take place is March 2025.

I wonder if that will have any impact on the government parties. Probably not. Then again can they (or rather any component within them) be seen to cut and run? Probably not.