"I think we need to do some serious thinking here." — Housing Minister Sean Fraser discussing the idea of putting a cap on the number of foreign students in Canada, Aug. 21 in Charlottetown, P.E.I.
Let's begin with a fact of life that most Canadians are unaware of — about 800,000 foreign students are now living in Canada.
The minister for housing revealed the number. The key reason is university economics.
Tuition for foreign students is substantially higher than it is for Canadian citizens. And universities are always looking for money.
There is no easier place to find it than young people around the world seeking a university education in Canada.
Most of these students are not living in university campus housing. There isn't nearly enough of that housing stock available. So they compete for mostly rental housing with millions of Canadian citizens.
Eight hundred thousand is the kind of number that is forcing the housing minister and his government to do some "serious thinking" about limiting the number of foreign students Canada admits every year. There is no doubt the government is also revisiting its immigration targets.
The government plans to bring in an estimated 500,000 immigrants every year. But if we continue to have a dearth of housing in this country, we have to take seriously the idea of bringing in fewer people.
It's axiomatic that politics cannot change the math.
But the math can and does change politics.
The most credible information on housing statistics comes from the federal Crown corporation known as the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). CMHC figures say the country will need to build nearly six million new housing units in Canada in the next seven years to accommodate our population growth. One out of three will be rentals.
There is a multitude of reasons we may not hit those targets.
Ironically, one of those reasons might be any decision to slow down immigration. Canada's construction trades rely heavily on immigrant workers.
The sad truth is many countries do a good job of encouraging their citizens to take up various trades. Canada is not one of them. But if we continue to have more newcomers than places where we can house them, we will continue to have a housing crisis in this country.
In some cities, rents are becoming outrageously expensive. As is always the case in conversations about the price of shelter in Winnipeg, we have it good relative to places like Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal, the three cities that have been largely responsible for electing the last three Liberal governments. But relatively good is not the same as actually good.
While the housing picture is murky, especially in Canada's largest population centres, the politics could not be clearer.
Justin Trudeau's government will be evicted by the voters two years from now unless steps are taken to reduce the growth in the price of homes and rent.
There is no point in pretending that housing is a one-size-fits-all issue.
We need different kinds of new housing for different people. For low-income people, we must build new government or co-op housing at affordable prices. The same goes for seniors who rely exclusively on their pension income to be involved in the housing market. The government has the means to create its own market for people without means, whether they are old or young.
The same goes for student housing. It's no mystery where the students are. They're on campus. And so apartment units have to be built close to campuses and rented out at rates that are lower than the free market in buildings that aren't competing for the free market.
They're owned by government agencies created for the needs of students, working-class families and low-income seniors.
Can the government do this in Canada? Of course they can. There is nothing I am suggesting that governments calling themselves liberal democracies or social democracies aren't doing in many parts of the world.
After the Second World War, it made sense for the federal government to build housing across Canada for veterans returning home to young families. We're in a cost of living war right now.
And for the government of the day, on this day and this year and next year and the year after that, it's a political war for hearts and minds that it cannot afford to lose. The next election hinges on it.
More importantly, a less stressful quality of life for millions of Canadians, requires it.
Charles Adler is a longtime political commenter and podcaster.
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