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Friday, 1 September 2023

[New post] The Political Report – September 1, 2023

Site logo image Delaware Dem posted: " "Most Republican voters in Georgia polled by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution say they still believe the 2020 presidential election was tainted by large-scale fraud — despite abundant evidence to the contrary." "The poll of likely Republican" Blue Delaware

The Political Report – September 1, 2023

Delaware Dem

Sep 1

"Most Republican voters in Georgia polled by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution say they still believe the 2020 presidential election was tainted by large-scale fraud — despite abundant evidence to the contrary."

"The poll of likely Republican Party primary voters shows that 61% of respondents said there was widespread fraud in the last presidential election, a distrust that has persisted for nearly three years as another race looms."

He has emerged on the national stage as some unholy amalgamation of Obama, Trump, and Musk. https://t.co/tfipCpEfq7

— New York Magazine (@NYMag) August 26, 2023

Daily Beast: "At the start of the 2022 midterm cycle, the RNC had twice as much cash on hand as the Democratic National Committee—$80.5 million versus $38.8 million. Now, the RNC has less than half as much on hand as the DNC—$11.8 million to the DNC's $25.4 million."

"The reversal comes after longtime RNC chair Ronna McDaniel fought off a contentious challenge to her leadership earlier this year, a victory secured partly through her pledge to prioritize the party's fundraising efforts."

"But the current state of affairs has left many RNC members concerned about the group's financial status just as the 2024 cycle begins to pick up steam—with some of them pining for the not-so-distant past."

According to voting records, GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is listed as "unaffiliated" in his home county in Ohio. https://t.co/pdyekcgAtH

— VANITY FAIR (@VanityFair) August 26, 2023

WARREN COUNTY, IOWA AUDITOR. A conservative Iowa county ousted the Republican official in charge of administering its elections in a special election landslide on Tuesday night after social media posts surfaced in which Auditor David Whipple had spread election conspiracy theories.

The development stands out because Warren County, which is located just south of Des Moines, had once been competitive turf but voted for Donald Trump by a 57-41 margin in 2020. Nevertheless, Whipple, who'd been appointed to his post earlier this year, was defeated in a 67-33 drubbing by Democrat Kimberly Shields, whom he'd previously suspended from her job as deputy auditor.

Sheets had applied to be appointed to replace the previous auditor, Traci VanderLinden after she announced in May that she'd resign for personal reasons. But while VanderLinden, the last Democrat left in countywide office, recommended that the county's Board of Supervisors pick Sheets, the all-GOP body instead unanimously went for Whipple, a construction professional with no government experience. One of the three supervisors, admitting that she was friends with Whipple and his wife, acknowledged that it "look[ed] weird" to choose him, but she argued he was a "detail-oriented person, especially in elections."

Democrat Kimberly Sheets handily defeated David Whipple in the race for Warren County, Iowa's county auditor on Tuesday, winning 66.5 percent of the vote in a very pro-Trump county. https://t.co/bXgspr5FHf

— The New Republic (@newrepublic) August 30, 2023

Things only got weirder from there. Whipple's critics soon uncovered Facebook posts from just after the 2020 election, including one in which he wrote of the president, "Joe admits MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD during brain fart." Whipple also shared a QAnon video days before the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and followed up with one promoting a Sept. 11 conspiracy theory. Kedron Bardwell, a professor at local Simpson College, publicized Whipple's posts, though he concluded that Republican leaders weren't bothered by them. "I think it's highly likely that [the county supervisors] didn't see them as problematic because in large part they agree," he told the BBC.

Democrats, of course, disagreed, and they had a small window of opportunity to do something about it. While Whipple ordinarily would not have gone before voters until November of 2024—and had the chance to oversee next year's elections—Iowa law gives voters 14 days to sign petitions to force a special election for any appointed county officials. Whipple's foes quickly worked to collect the roughly 2,400 signatures they needed, a figure that represents 10% of the votes cast in the most recent election for governor in Warren County.

On the same day the campaign turned in approximately 3,000 petitions in June, Whipple announced that he was putting Sheets on leave. The auditor claimed he wanted to avoid putting staffers in an awkward position since Sheets was already being talked about as a potential opponent, though Sheets sharply objected. "I can still do my job with no problem," she told Iowa Starting Line. "I just wasn't given that opportunity."

During her campaign, Sheets zeroed in on Whipple's social media posts. "You need somebody in that office that can curb that misinformation, that can tell them exactly where they can go vote, if this rumor is true, if this is what really happened," she told voters.

Whipple distanced himself from his election-denying posts on the trail, even telling the BBC that he acknowledged Joe Biden had won and that what he'd written was "ridiculous." But he soon reverted to his old ways when he fired off a Facebook missive days before the election in response to Sheets' call for Simpson College students to vote.

"Several have notified me that Kim is soliciting votes from New college students to decide your election outcomes in Warren county," he posted. "While it may be legal, it isn't always right." Sheets responded by telling students, "You're part of our community and deserve to have a say in its leadership."

Sheets ended up pulling off a giant win in a county that had swung hard to the right over the last decade and now rarely supports Democrats. Whipple reacted to his loss by telling Starting Line he didn't know much about local government before his appointment yet didn't rule out another bid for office.

The new auditor, meanwhile, declared on election night, "When the county supervisors tried to take away the voice of the people, the people of Warren County stood up for our democracy and said with one voice: We trust competence over conspiracies."

Trump advised Tudor Dixon to soften her line on abortion during Michigan governor's race https://t.co/eSynILusLk

— POLITICO (@politico) August 30, 2023

MICHIGAN GOVERNOR. Michigan Republican Tudor Dixon says that Donald Trump advised her to soften her message on abortion during her failed gubernatorial bid last year, but that her campaign "could not pivot in time," Politico reports.

Dixon told Trump on her podcast: "You were absolutely right, sir, and I hope that you are able to navigate that issue in '24 and that we can win those women back. They are already putting out attack ads, and it is not a fair issue for them to attack on."

Biden's allies rush to pick up his slack in New Hampshire https://t.co/tYr8S63kAj

— POLITICO (@politico) August 26, 2023

MICHIGAN U.S. SENATOR. "Former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican who served in the U.S. House for seven terms and chaired its intelligence committee, is expected to soon announce a bid for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat," the AP reports.

"Rogers would become the first prominent Republican in the state to announce a campaign more than eight months after longtime Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow announced that she would retire next year after her fourth term."

Sanders hits at Cornel West over criticism of Biden https://t.co/rfhOpKBlJm

— POLITICO (@politico) August 27, 2023

"A major Republican donor and one-time financial backer of former President Donald Trump is now a leader in the Florida chapter of No Labels' third-party presidential bid," Politico reports.

"Allan Keen, a Florida-based real estate developer and investor who gave more than $137,000 to Trump-related election entities last cycle, has joined the centrist political group in a leadership role with its Florida chapter."

No Labels to hold nominating convention in April, Joe Lieberman says https://t.co/YWSMkTSKVK

— POLITICO (@politico) August 27, 2023

"The organizers of No Labels, the bipartisan group preparing a potential third-party presidential ticket, have been conducting focus groups with like-minded voters to help draft a candidate selection plan next year without a traditional state-run primary system," the Washington Post reports.

"The group is also considering staging televised town halls or debates in the coming months, possibly with a media partner, to help kick-start the process of selecting presidential and vice-presidential nominees. No Labels plans to nominate candidates at an April convention in Dallas only if the group's leaders first determine that there is a viable path to victory against the Democratic and Republican nominees."

When crystal ball-gazing pundits tell you they know what's going to happen in next year's election, they're either misleading you or deluding themselves. Here are 11 of the many reasons why their predictions may be wrong. My latest for @TheDailyBeast. https://t.co/IV6ETwmY2S

— David Rothkopf (@djrothkopf) August 28, 2023

"Sen. Joe Manchin and his daughter Heather Manchin are pitching major political donors on a nascent effort to promote centrist policies and candidates that is projected to cost more than $100 million," the Wall Street Journal reports.

"The project comes as Manchin, a 76-year-old West Virginia Democrat, is weighing whether to mount an uphill effort to win re-election to the Senate in 2024 or pursue a long-shot run for president—or take on a different role in politics altogether. The centrist senator, who represents a solidly Republican state, has been a pivotal deal maker in recent years and has flirted with becoming an independent, citing increasing frustration with both parties."

Biden campaign: It might not be Trump, but it'll still be his policies in the general election https://t.co/2PkZcRrrEQ

— POLITICO (@politico) August 27, 2023

MISSISSIPPI GOVERNOR. Democrat Brandon Presley has publicized an internal from Impact Research conducted Aug. 6 to Aug. 9 that shows him deadlocked 46-46 against Republican Gov. Tate Reeves, which is a slight improvement from the governor's 47-44 edge in Impact's April survey. The only poll we've seen in the intervening time was an OnMessage Inc. survey for Reeves from early July that showed the Republican up 49-32.

"To just ridicule and dismiss the things that he is saying is a real lost opportunity," Murphy told me. "I worry that we are entering a world where we don't talk unless people are 110 percent in alignment with us."https://t.co/K6n4s3WOzN

— Chris Murphy 🟧 (@ChrisMurphyCT) August 28, 2023

NORTH CAROLINA GOVERNOR. Termed-out Gov. Roy Cooper announced Wednesday that he was endorsing Attorney General Josh Stein to succeed him, a declaration that came a month after Punchbowl News reported that the incumbent told a gathering of the Democratic Governors Association that one of his priorities is electing Stein. Cooper's public support for the attorney general may be part of an attempt to deter outgoing state Supreme Court Justice Mike Morgan from launching his own campaign for the Democratic nod.

Tudor Dixon and Rep. Nancy Mace praised Haley's stance after she dismissed the idea that a 15-week national abortion ban could pass through Congress and called for a focus on finding "consensus."https://t.co/azLLIwO4HJ

— Semafor (@semafor) August 28, 2023

"Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes said Tuesday that his office is figuring out how to handle potential complaints over whether former President Donald Trump should be disqualified from appearing on the 2024 ballot," NBC News reports.

"The issue centers on the 14th Amendment, which prohibits people who have 'engaged in insurrection or rebellion' from holding public office. Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson raised the theory at last week's GOP presidential debate that Trump's conduct on Jan. 6, 2021, might disqualify him on those grounds — a theory that has gained traction among some legal scholars, though others discount the possibility."

"Now, the people running state elections are trying to figure out what to do if people bring legal challenges against Trump."

My latest, on Vivek Ramaswamy and why Republicans always wind up temporarily besotted with the candidate who has zero experience, is utterly ignorant, and whose ideas are preposterous: https://t.co/v4n41ISWOG

— Paul Waldman (@paulwaldman1) August 29, 2023

Politico: "When Pramila Jayapal faced fierce blowback in mid-July after dubbing Israel a "racist state," it immediately unnerved fellow House progressives. Their concern: Would Democratic leaders recommit to the longstanding policy of backing all incumbents, including critics of Israel?"

"The answer was emphatic: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and other leaders quickly reassured the group in a late-July meeting at party headquarters that they planned to continue standing behind incumbents… That defense would include those who faced challenges funded by the deep-pocketed American Israel Public Affairs Committee, as well as the progressives who had initially won their seats by taking on Democratic incumbents."

"Weeks later, Democratic leaders are following through on that promise. A slew of party leaders officially endorsed Rep. Ilhan Omar's (D-MN) reelection bid in statements."

Nikki Haley's got a long way to go before she clears the not-Trump lane of candidates, much less taking on the final boss himself. But her poll bump makes me wonder: Should non-Trump Republicans coalesce around her? https://t.co/BI299vFfFA

— Matt Lewis (@mattklewis) August 29, 2023

"A super PAC backing GOP presidential candidate Doug Burgum is launching a huge national ad campaign in an effort to vault the North Dakota governor into the second debate next month," Politico reports.  "Best of America PAC on Wednesday reserved over $4 million in advertising set to run nationally on Fox Business Network, Fox News Channel, the History Channel, Newsmax, TBS, TNT on the Fox broadcast network. The ads are set to run from Aug. 30 to Sept. 24, the day ahead of debate qualification."

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