I was always a bit dubious about the claims that Sinn Féin's rise had 'broken' the old system. The old system had been broken a while - evidenced by the precipitous fall in Fianna Fáil's poll ratings (and elections returns), and the somewhat less precipitous fall for Fine Gael. Sinn Féin's rise was part of that, but so was Labour's disintegration. Not that Sinn Féin becoming the leading party was a problem, quite the opposite, this was precisely the shake-up this polity needed with a challenge from the centre-left. But the idea that Sinn Féin's rise was inevitable and irreversible was another thing and attached to that the notion that there was now a large party and two smaller party and a raft of small parties 'model' seemed to have been called prematurely by SF.
Those poll ratings always looked a little high and it was difficult to determine what they were based on. Was it a pandemic/post-pandemic context -
Anyhow, Sinn Féin has returned to Earth with a bump. And yet, and yet, if I were them I'd look at the current polls and I might hope that this is as far as they fall, because it's rating is significantly better than its results at the Local and European elections.
The current state of play?
Fine Gael 21 -1
Sinn Féin 20 -3
Fianna Fáil 19 +4
Others/Independents 15 -6
Green Party 5 +1
Independent Ireland 5 [n/a] [presumably their rating was in the O/I pool previously]
Social Democrats 5 NC
Labour 3 -1
PBP 3 NC
Aontú 3 NC
It's probably not worth parsing the minor changes - Fine Gael down 1% is noise, though the fact they're not capitalising on their reasonably good elections is interesting. Fianna Fáil is a clear winner from this, but they're not at 20%. That does seem to suggest their weakness continues. Sinn Féin's fall appears to be real. But again, it could be so so much worse.
Others/Independents. Given the good showing by them at the elections - if we add Independent Ireland to their tally - the fact they are a fraction lower is curious. Could it be that close examination of some of the 'independents' has had an off-putting effect? Independent Ireland's rating is solid for a first time party (with an MEP no less!). How will that work at the next election though?
Disappointing for Labour and PBP and the Green Party and indeed Social Democrats. All mired at or around the 3-5% area. Not a lot of action going on there. And yet no wipe out for the Green Party. This is not 2011. And nor is it 2020. The chance for the smaller parties to maintain numbers, or at least a toehold in the Oireachtas is stronger as Sinn Féin is weaker. And Aontú abides.
So we have, perhaps, a real sense of the environment that will be facing us (and the parties and others) in the run-up to the elections, be they after the Summer or early next year. Three parties on similar ratings - in or around the low 20s. Independents and Others as block somewhat smaller. A raft of parties of left and perhaps hard right in or around 3-5%.
Said it for years, long before Sinn Féin's polling numbers began to decline. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael look well positioned to lead the next government.
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