Monday, 1 July 2024

UK Polling

By WorldbyStorm on July 1, 2024

But a few short days to go until the UK poll. So what are the weekend polls telling us? Labour solidly in the 38% to 42% area. The Tories oscillating between 18% and 24% but generally in or around 20%. The Liberal Democrats shedding a percentage point or two as they go into the last few days - say 11%. The Green Party in the mid-single digits. They've been bouncing around too. Reform, who could forget them, in the mid-teens, perhaps a little higher, somewhat lower than a smatter of more hyperbolic polls.

There'll be plenty of time to compare and contrast, but it seems implausible that Labour won't do well.

Worth considering that Labour has added about 8-10% on its December 2019 showing at the General Election then. Also worth considering that much of that is likely down to the near incredible missteps by the Tories in subsequent years. And bear in mind that as with this polity there's remarkable volatility. At that last General Election the Tories won 365 seats, Labour just 202. It's plausible that the Tories may come back at half that Labour level. It could happen. We looked at seat numbers before the weekend. I've no idea how this will pan out in those terms. There's multiple projections floating around. Perhaps the most sensible approach is to say that Labour should do well, the Tories should do badly. We'll know soon enough.